The Left-Right Conundrum

On Saturday July 22, 2017, some 20,000 people voted to merge the Wildrose and former Progressive Conservative parties.  I'd love to believe 40,000 people voted but significant results like 95%, for both parties, is statistically improbable.  Be that as it may, I doubt there will be much complaint from the general public and I personally wouldn't care if they forged every ballot; this is much more interesting than if the "no" vote won.

While campaigns were expected to begin immediately, as of today there are only two declared candidates for the leadership of the newly formed United Conservative Party; Brian Jean and Doug Schweitzer.  Unsurprisingly, Jean has already flipped his stance on forming a moderate government that will not cut jobs; it's becoming more his trade mark than "Wildrose won't raise your taxes".

When Jason Kenney appeased the right flank of the right wing by saying parents should be notified if their children join Gay Straight Alliances at school, Brian Jean's first statement claimed he was against notifying parents.  Then, on the following day, he updated his position to say notifying parents might be okay under certain circumstances. The day after, he tried to further clarify his position with smoke and muddy water.  At least when he only said one thing people could keep up.

"...if you want someone to go in there ideologically and cut taxes, no matter what, that's not me" Jean claimed.  That statement alone took him far away from the Wildrose of old and people took notice.  A right wing publication that has been very pro-Jean in the past slammed him with three nasty articles in a row.  By that time, Jean had already begun to back-track but they weren't interested in letting a possible left-leaning conservative off the hook.  Jean took the bait and has since announced he will repeal the carbon tax and cut $2.6 billion from expenditures immediately.  Perhaps when you hire a founder of a right-wing publication, the entire staff actually runs your campaign for you.

The fact remains there are only two declared candidates running for leadership of the United Conservative Party.  While Schweitzer gets to play Mr. Nice Guy by being LGBTQ2+ friendly, offering massive tax cuts and jobs for everyone (by decimating provincial revenue), Brian Jean is apparently not going to take that opportunity.  It would seem an unmentionable publication has steered him to seek the same flank that Jason Kenney already has wrapped around his socially conservative finger.  Which begs the question: does Brian Jean really think right-wing news subscribers are his voter base?

As a non-right-wing supporter who spends way too much time looking into views that don't match my own, I can say that there is only one well-known candidate who would be palatable for the majority of voters in Alberta; Brian Jean.  Not Brian Jean of a day after his moderate government commentary, but Brian Jean on the day of his moderate government narrative.  If Jean wants to create a big tent party, he's going to have to try to attract people who aren't so far right they're wrong.  He won't do that if he tows the right-wing narrative.

Centrist Politics: Right-Light Category

As the deadline to buy memberships to vote on the question of conservative unity passed, it was said internal polling by both the former Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties shows a strong indication of a victory for the unity question.  Of the three who have declared their candidacy for the leadership race that will follow a successful vote for a united party, Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney and Brian Jean, Schweitzer had been the only one to release a platform for his leadership bid.  However, Brian Jean was in full campaign mode when he sat down with Rick Bell on Thursday.  That's when things became confusing.

Photo Credit: Twitter, Woods Homes @ChildMntlHealth 

In the last three weeks, I have attended three Alberta Together events, meeting people who are former PC, Wildrose and Liberal supporters.  Talking with more than a few of them the issues brought up were: the former PC supporters don't support Kenney and the merger; the Wildrosers are fed up with the idiocy coming from the elected Mouthpiece Legislative Agitators; and the Liberals?  They're looking for a fresh start.  All of them are looking to a party that holds fiscal conservative and socially progressive values.  So, apparently, is Brian Jean.

The current leader of the Wildrose party claimed "most Albertans want a common sense, middle of the road government."  That certainly sounds familiar.  Greg Clark has been saying this at the "Centre Together" events.  Katherine O'Neill has been saying the same at Alberta Together events.  Kerry Cundal said the same thing during the Liberal Leadership.  One of these things is not like the other; or is it?

"Gone are the days when hard right governments can find success in Alberta" Jean told Rick Bell.  Which hard right governments could he possibly be referring to?  Certainly not the former PC Party who reigned for 44 years.  Sure, Fildebrandt has put out a dog whistle for the Libertarian supporters to "roll back the nanny state".  I mean, who doesn't want open liquor in the parks? (Spoiler: Anyone's wife taking their children to a park in their hometown of Calgary and has to deal with drunken arseholes.)  Schweitzer took a page from Donald Trump and called for "Two for one" business regulations (remove two regulations for every one introduced) and promised the "biggest tax reduction in Alberta's history".  For a province that's currently 11 billion dollars in debt... I just can't.

Then there's the Saskatchewan come Ottawa native, the socially conservative Mr. Jason Kenney who has made Alberta both a national and international embarrassment for his stance on Gay Straight Alliances.  With the joyously incredulous platforms of the other leadership contenders (and one on the fence), it seems as if Jean truly could be the centrist option for the Wildrose.  The question is, would they have him?

How Alberta's Carbon Tax May Have Made Gas Cheaper

Rick Perry is not an economist and neither am I, just so you know.  I was, however, paying attention in junior high when I was taught about 'supply and demand' (note: I was educated in the Canadian public school system which is pretty darned good).  I also live in Alberta which is only just starting to get its bearings back after a nasty recession caused by... an increase in the global supply of oil... which caused the price of oil to drop.  It's therefore entirely possible I have a better perspective of supply and demand than the Energy Secretary of the United States of America (I'm so sorry, America).

In what was termed a "Canada Day Miracle", gas prices did not increase as Canadians headed into a long weekend.  Not only did they not increase at all during the week, gas prices are at a seven year low... because the supply of available gas is higher than the demand.  When there is more supply than demand, prices go down; it's what the "law of supply and demand" is (again, I'm sorry, America).

When the Alberta NDP announced they would implement a carbon tax in an effort to get people thinking about their personal contribution to emissions, there was an uproar in Alberta.  To be fair, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than most citizens.  Somehow, there's a belief that Alberta is so rich we shouldn't have to pay taxes at all:

Fall 1998:  The government surveyed Albertans about their fiscal priorities in the "Talk it up. Talk it out." survey. Albertans gave increasing savings in the Heritage Fund an importance rating of 19.2 per cent, behind eliminating the debt, reducing taxes and increasing spending in priority areas. 

                                                     - Alberta Government, Ministry of Finance

In any case, Albertans were angry; still are.  I had a multitude of conversations with Kenney-Wildrose-esque conservative supporters about how they could not, under any circumstances, reduce their gas use.  Others said they would take the bus to avoid paying a carbon tax... (you can't make this stuff up).  The point of the carbon tax, I believe, was not to get everyone to reduce their use but to encourage those who could to do so.

As previously mentioned, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than anyone else.  There are also
a lot of Albertans who are concerned about climate change.  To my basic understanding of supply and demand, I think the carbon tax may have reduced the cost of gas for those who actually need it most.

Simplistically speaking, if people who didn't need to use as much gas stopped doing so, it would reduce the demand.  If the demand goes down, those who actually need to travel for work would reap the benefits of a lower price.  Again, I'm not an economist, but in my opinion, the introduction of a carbon tax in Alberta might have actually reduced both environmental and gas costs to everyone.

The Politics of Party Affiliation

In the last week there has been a lot to talk about on the political front and very little of it provided optimism for Alberta.  In BC, MLA Christy Clark, who approved the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, lost her bid to form government and the NDP's MLA John Horgan was named Premier designate on June 30, 2017.  Though an NDP government in BC would seem like a good thing for an NDP government in Alberta, there has been a difference of opinion between the two over the necessity of increasing pipeline capacity to the BC coast.

If that wasn't enough to begin to rile the Conservative troops in Alberta as they prepared to celebrate Canada's 150th birthday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered his Canada Day speech in Ottawa naming the individual provinces and territories that make up this incredible country we call Canada and somehow skipped over Alberta.  Trudeau and politically engaged individuals across the country felt the backlash before it even started.  Just remember, when conservatives make a gaffe and apologize, everyone is expected to accept the apology and move on (*Note, there were a number from Fildebrandt so I just chose one at random).

Credit: Jason Kenney's official Facebook page

In Alberta, the conservative party "leaders" (Jason Kenney and MLA Brian Jean) and shakers (MLA Derek Fildebrandt) pounced on the opportunity to rally support from the separatists and conspiracy theorists.  Alberta Liberal Leader, David Khan, responded to MLA Brian Jean saying "Canada Day is the ONE day a year when politicians should be inclusive..." (no pun intended, I'm sure).  Neither the Alberta Party Leader, MLA Greg Clark, nor Alberta Premier Rachel Notley made any mention of the omission on social media.

I once had a conversation with someone about how it was beneficial for provincial parties to have federal counterparts.  The NDP, Liberals and former PC's all had a federal likeness of the same name and the Wildrose had Reform.  Even once the latter two parties merged federally, both provincial parties can lay claim to the parentage when it suits them. While the same could also be said for the NDP and Liberals, in a province that went very blue in the federal election the provincial parties are having a rough time with their federal namesakes and even their provincial cousins.

If David Khan didn't have enough of an uphill battle in the province before (and he did), the Prime Minister has managed to be unhelpful despite additional funding provided to the province during the downturn, expedition of infrastructure funding and pipeline approval. For the Alberta NDP, the federal party delivered a stunning blow almost one year after the provincial party was elected to government by tabling, and approving further discussion of the "Leap Manifesto" for implementation into federal NDP climate policy.  More recently, MP Jagmeet Singh, a federal NDP leadership candidate, claimed he would not support the addition of any pipelines, east or west for Alberta oil. Meanwhile, the federal Conservatives elected MP Andrew Scheer, a social conservative, to lead their party into the future of yesteryear. Personally, I'm starting to think it a blessing to not have a federal counterpart at all.

Bringing Alberta Together

This week I was fortunate enough to attend not one but two meetings about unity.  First up was Derek Fildebrandt's Unity Town Hall on Thursday which I tweeted live as best as I was able.  In a room of about 80 people, Derek's speech fell flat on the crowd.  I've seen him a couple of times in person and he's not a bad speaker.  In Question Period he's quite dramatic and often amusing, if only because of his dramatic flair.  That was not the case on Thursday and I can't help but think it's because the speech was authored by someone else.  The questions at the end were more insightful and Derek was back to his more recognizable self while answering them.

Photo Credit: Daveberta.ca

"I look around the room and see 50 and 60 year olds" one man said, "where are the 40 year olds?" As Derek scanned the crowd, I imagine he was disappointed to see me as the lone representative of the age group in question.  I've had a few interactions with Derek in the past couple of years and he is well aware I do not support his "vision" for Alberta. "The young people are at the back" Derek said with obvious relief.  And they were; the youth volunteers.

"How are you going to engage the young people?" the same man asked.  "Liberty Conservativism" Derek replied.  "I don't think anyone should go to jail for smoking marijuana" he declared to a group of individuals who likely don't agree with him at all. "I realize that may not be a popular stance in this room" he said.  I do believe he is misinterpreting Trudeau's success as being heavily dependent on that statement.  What he's missing is how the younger people in this country reacted to Trudeau's declared commitment to the environment, adequately preparing Canada for a future in a global economy and inclusion; and Derek can't offer that commitment to his supporters without alienating a good majority of them.  Welcome to Alberta's right wing.

Kerry Cundal and Stephanie Shostak

The second event I attended was the Alberta Together meeting in Red Deer.  On Friday I was told the event had sold 250 tickets.  They accepted registration at the door as well and had 50 blank cards for name tags.  They ran out of blank tags and the later arrivals used blank paper squares.  They hadn't ordered enough food for lunch and it was pushed back an extra hour as the staff at The Black Knight Inn accommodated a request for food for an additional one hundred people.

To the gentleman at Derek's Unity event, I found the 40 year olds; and the 30 year olds and the 20 year olds who were willing to attend an event about a new political vision for Alberta.  There were also 50 year olds and 60 year olds.  People from different cultural backgrounds and people from all over the province.  There were people from different political backgrounds as well.  It was an incredible mix of people who looked a lot like the Alberta I've seen while traveling around the province over the past three months.

At the beginning of the session we logged in to a wireless poll and questions were presented so we could get an idea of whether or not people agreed with statements taken from Alberta Party policy, Liberal policy and former Progressive Conservative policy.  There were also a few statements from Wildrose policy.  On Liberal, ABP and Progressive Conservative policy, people voted over 90% in agreement with the polices.  On Wildrose policy, they voted over 90% in disagreement in all but one category; "the government should provide incentives to employment for people receiving government benefits".  That was almost an even split.  Talking with attendees afterward, many said it would depend on the program.  AISH, Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped, for example, was not a program people believed should be "incentivized" as recipients often could not work, or could not work full-time due to permanent mental or physical disabilities.

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark
Photo Credit: Nicolas Pelletier/Radio-Canada

While the Alberta Liberal Party was invited to speak to the crowd, they (likely politely) declined.  An unfortunate choice to make since the room was full of people looking to hear what their best options were for a party to support in 2019.  As it was, they heard from Greg Clark, leader of the Alberta Party, Stephen Mandel, a prominent (former?) Progressive Conservative, and Kerry Cundal, who must be everyone's favourite recent Alberta Liberal supporter.  The question "How do we move forward" was posed near the end of the meeting.  The options were: Start a new party, attempt a merge with another centrist party, join the Alberta Party and "other".  83% chose "join the Alberta Party".

As the former PC Party and Wildrose fight for the Wildrose supporters of late and the PC members of old, the moderates in Alberta don't seem willing to give up their progressive, or conservative, values.  Welcome to the centre; we will build Alberta together.

Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The Fight for the Centre

In the past week some Alberta Liberal Party members were able to vote for their choice of Liberal Party leader.  I say "some" because there were a number of disqualified voters. In the end, 77% of registered party members (Almost 1700) voted.  It was probably a tough choice.  David Khan and Kerry Cundal are probably the most likable and genuine individuals to face off in Alberta politics in a very long time.

Image Credit: thoughtundermined.com 

David wanted to rebuild the Liberal brand in Alberta.  He wanted to put in the work to remind people why the Alberta Liberal Party was the oldest party in the province.  He wanted to make the Alberta Liberals great again.  Kerry wanted a mandate to build a stronger centre.  She thought it was time to stop fighting for the same voter base in the middle of the political spectrum.  She said now was the time to work together with the other centrist party, the Alberta Party, and the politically homeless Progressive Conservatives who did not want to be part of a Jason Kenney - Wildrose "frankenparty".  The result was David Khan with 54% of the vote and Kerry Cundal with 46%; David won by 133 votes from a total of 1697 votes cast.

No doubt Kerry was disappointed.  As she boarded her flight overseas, I imagined she was feeling down.  It was a whirlwind of a campaign; six months worth of campaigning crammed into two.  She and David traveled the province meeting people for coffees, breakfasts, lunches, dinners, drinks and attending events; some of them together (they're also friends outside of the political arena).   Which is harder on a candidate?  Losing by a little or a lot?  When it's close you think there must have been something more you could have done; one more day of phone calls, one more trip to the other end of the province or sold a hundred and fifty more memberships to people who wouldn't be disqualified... who knows.

That was June 4th and the campaign hangover had to be pretty bad on the 5th, but time heals all wounds.  On June 6, David sent out an email reiterating his pledge to rebuild and re-energize the party and asked those who supported both him and Kerry to join together and work towards 2019.  If Kerry had some of the fight knocked out of her on Sunday it was back with a vengeance by Tuesday.

The email was titled "Let's continue this discussion".  She thanked the volunteers, supporters and the ALP members for being involved in the process.  She thanked those who were willing to think outside the box.  Then she reached out to half of the registered Liberal voters.  "46% of you were interested in hearing about what it would mean to see cooperation with other centrists and progressives in Alberta.  That discussion is ongoing and I want to personally invite you... to be a part of it."

The next meeting to discuss Alberta Together is happening in Red Deer on June 24th, 2017 from 11:00 am until 3:00 pm.  Tickets can be purchased here and it is open to anyone who wishes to be a part of this movement.  Kerry even invited David to take part; after all, almost half of the voting members chose to support a different view.  David knows he will have a lot of work ahead of him and the fight for the centre is just beginning.

The NDP and UCP would like people to think they are the only choices in 2019.   This works for both of them but does it work for Albertans?  The majority of Albertans voted PC for 44 years.  The NDP is trying to move to the centre.  The UCP could try to move into the centre as well but with Kenney's voting history and the Wildrose's ... well, Wildrose-iness, it won't be easy for them.  So who does that leave as an option?  It could be the Liberals but somehow having a majority in the federal government hasn't helped their brand here in Alberta.

Rachel Notley addressed a crowd in Calgary on June 1st asking "people who believe just as much in being progressive as they do in being conservative" to consider the NDP as a "pragmatic, progressive home." Greg Clark joined Ryan Jespersen on 630 CHED on June 7 and he referred to the influx of new members the Alberta Party has seen over the past couple of months. "There's definitely momentum in the centre and it's heading our way" he said.  Be that as it may, the only parties not aiming for the centrist voters are the highly contentious conservatives.

Call it arrogance, call it disdain; the conservatives don't want anyone who can't call themselves an absolute conservative.  The NDP, Alberta Party and Liberals are opening their doors to progressive conservatives.  That will leave three choices on the left of the right and one party, if the Kenney-Wildrose supporters surrender to the call for power, on the right.  And what will happen then?  Will there be enough of a split between the left and centre parties to allow Kenney-Wildrose to form government?  Anything's possible.

REMINDER: Members of the Wildrose Party must have been registered two weeks prior to the July 22 AGM to vote for what they think will be best for Alberta's future. The PC Party needs 51% to vote for unity and the Wildrose needs 75%.  Wildrose memberships can be purchased for $10.