Bringing Alberta Together

This week I was fortunate enough to attend not one but two meetings about unity.  First up was Derek Fildebrandt's Unity Town Hall on Thursday which I tweeted live as best as I was able.  In a room of about 80 people, Derek's speech fell flat on the crowd.  I've seen him a couple of times in person and he's not a bad speaker.  In Question Period he's quite dramatic and often amusing, if only because of his dramatic flair.  That was not the case on Thursday and I can't help but think it's because the speech was authored by someone else.  The questions at the end were more insightful and Derek was back to his more recognizable self while answering them.

Photo Credit: Daveberta.ca

"I look around the room and see 50 and 60 year olds" one man said, "where are the 40 year olds?" As Derek scanned the crowd, I imagine he was disappointed to see me as the lone representative of the age group in question.  I've had a few interactions with Derek in the past couple of years and he is well aware I do not support his "vision" for Alberta. "The young people are at the back" Derek said with obvious relief.  And they were; the youth volunteers.

"How are you going to engage the young people?" the same man asked.  "Liberty Conservativism" Derek replied.  "I don't think anyone should go to jail for smoking marijuana" he declared to a group of individuals who likely don't agree with him at all. "I realize that may not be a popular stance in this room" he said.  I do believe he is misinterpreting Trudeau's success as being heavily dependent on that statement.  What he's missing is how the younger people in this country reacted to Trudeau's declared commitment to the environment, adequately preparing Canada for a future in a global economy and inclusion; and Derek can't offer that commitment to his supporters without alienating a good majority of them.  Welcome to Alberta's right wing.

Kerry Cundal and Stephanie Shostak

The second event I attended was the Alberta Together meeting in Red Deer.  On Friday I was told the event had sold 250 tickets.  They accepted registration at the door as well and had 50 blank cards for name tags.  They ran out of blank tags and the later arrivals used blank paper squares.  They hadn't ordered enough food for lunch and it was pushed back an extra hour as the staff at The Black Knight Inn accommodated a request for food for an additional one hundred people.

To the gentleman at Derek's Unity event, I found the 40 year olds; and the 30 year olds and the 20 year olds who were willing to attend an event about a new political vision for Alberta.  There were also 50 year olds and 60 year olds.  People from different cultural backgrounds and people from all over the province.  There were people from different political backgrounds as well.  It was an incredible mix of people who looked a lot like the Alberta I've seen while traveling around the province over the past three months.

At the beginning of the session we logged in to a wireless poll and questions were presented so we could get an idea of whether or not people agreed with statements taken from Alberta Party policy, Liberal policy and former Progressive Conservative policy.  There were also a few statements from Wildrose policy.  On Liberal, ABP and Progressive Conservative policy, people voted over 90% in agreement with the polices.  On Wildrose policy, they voted over 90% in disagreement in all but one category; "the government should provide incentives to employment for people receiving government benefits".  That was almost an even split.  Talking with attendees afterward, many said it would depend on the program.  AISH, Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped, for example, was not a program people believed should be "incentivized" as recipients often could not work, or could not work full-time due to permanent mental or physical disabilities.

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark
Photo Credit: Nicolas Pelletier/Radio-Canada

While the Alberta Liberal Party was invited to speak to the crowd, they (likely politely) declined.  An unfortunate choice to make since the room was full of people looking to hear what their best options were for a party to support in 2019.  As it was, they heard from Greg Clark, leader of the Alberta Party, Stephen Mandel, a prominent (former?) Progressive Conservative, and Kerry Cundal, who must be everyone's favourite recent Alberta Liberal supporter.  The question "How do we move forward" was posed near the end of the meeting.  The options were: Start a new party, attempt a merge with another centrist party, join the Alberta Party and "other".  83% chose "join the Alberta Party".

As the former PC Party and Wildrose fight for the Wildrose supporters of late and the PC members of old, the moderates in Alberta don't seem willing to give up their progressive, or conservative, values.  Welcome to the centre; we will build Alberta together.

Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The Fight for the Centre

In the past week some Alberta Liberal Party members were able to vote for their choice of Liberal Party leader.  I say "some" because there were a number of disqualified voters. In the end, 77% of registered party members (Almost 1700) voted.  It was probably a tough choice.  David Khan and Kerry Cundal are probably the most likable and genuine individuals to face off in Alberta politics in a very long time.

Image Credit: thoughtundermined.com 

David wanted to rebuild the Liberal brand in Alberta.  He wanted to put in the work to remind people why the Alberta Liberal Party was the oldest party in the province.  He wanted to make the Alberta Liberals great again.  Kerry wanted a mandate to build a stronger centre.  She thought it was time to stop fighting for the same voter base in the middle of the political spectrum.  She said now was the time to work together with the other centrist party, the Alberta Party, and the politically homeless Progressive Conservatives who did not want to be part of a Jason Kenney - Wildrose "frankenparty".  The result was David Khan with 54% of the vote and Kerry Cundal with 46%; David won by 133 votes from a total of 1697 votes cast.

No doubt Kerry was disappointed.  As she boarded her flight overseas, I imagined she was feeling down.  It was a whirlwind of a campaign; six months worth of campaigning crammed into two.  She and David traveled the province meeting people for coffees, breakfasts, lunches, dinners, drinks and attending events; some of them together (they're also friends outside of the political arena).   Which is harder on a candidate?  Losing by a little or a lot?  When it's close you think there must have been something more you could have done; one more day of phone calls, one more trip to the other end of the province or sold a hundred and fifty more memberships to people who wouldn't be disqualified... who knows.

That was June 4th and the campaign hangover had to be pretty bad on the 5th, but time heals all wounds.  On June 6, David sent out an email reiterating his pledge to rebuild and re-energize the party and asked those who supported both him and Kerry to join together and work towards 2019.  If Kerry had some of the fight knocked out of her on Sunday it was back with a vengeance by Tuesday.

The email was titled "Let's continue this discussion".  She thanked the volunteers, supporters and the ALP members for being involved in the process.  She thanked those who were willing to think outside the box.  Then she reached out to half of the registered Liberal voters.  "46% of you were interested in hearing about what it would mean to see cooperation with other centrists and progressives in Alberta.  That discussion is ongoing and I want to personally invite you... to be a part of it."

The next meeting to discuss Alberta Together is happening in Red Deer on June 24th, 2017 from 11:00 am until 3:00 pm.  Tickets can be purchased here and it is open to anyone who wishes to be a part of this movement.  Kerry even invited David to take part; after all, almost half of the voting members chose to support a different view.  David knows he will have a lot of work ahead of him and the fight for the centre is just beginning.

The NDP and UCP would like people to think they are the only choices in 2019.   This works for both of them but does it work for Albertans?  The majority of Albertans voted PC for 44 years.  The NDP is trying to move to the centre.  The UCP could try to move into the centre as well but with Kenney's voting history and the Wildrose's ... well, Wildrose-iness, it won't be easy for them.  So who does that leave as an option?  It could be the Liberals but somehow having a majority in the federal government hasn't helped their brand here in Alberta.

Rachel Notley addressed a crowd in Calgary on June 1st asking "people who believe just as much in being progressive as they do in being conservative" to consider the NDP as a "pragmatic, progressive home." Greg Clark joined Ryan Jespersen on 630 CHED on June 7 and he referred to the influx of new members the Alberta Party has seen over the past couple of months. "There's definitely momentum in the centre and it's heading our way" he said.  Be that as it may, the only parties not aiming for the centrist voters are the highly contentious conservatives.

Call it arrogance, call it disdain; the conservatives don't want anyone who can't call themselves an absolute conservative.  The NDP, Alberta Party and Liberals are opening their doors to progressive conservatives.  That will leave three choices on the left of the right and one party, if the Kenney-Wildrose supporters surrender to the call for power, on the right.  And what will happen then?  Will there be enough of a split between the left and centre parties to allow Kenney-Wildrose to form government?  Anything's possible.

REMINDER: Members of the Wildrose Party must have been registered two weeks prior to the July 22 AGM to vote for what they think will be best for Alberta's future. The PC Party needs 51% to vote for unity and the Wildrose needs 75%.  Wildrose memberships can be purchased for $10.

The Golden Opportunity with UCP

The backroom deal-making that wasn’t supposed to happen with a Wildrose PC merger seems to be exactly what was needed to bring the parties into agreement.  Kenney had been persona non grata after the Gay-Straight Alliance media backlash in March but resurfaced in BC stumping for the Liberal party in April.  As the BC election resulted in a reduction of Liberal seats to a tie with the NDP and created a shockingly powerful Green Party swing vote, it would appear his presence did more harm than good.  One can only hope he finds similar success in the 2019 election.

Back in the public eye in Alberta, Jason Kenney's highly anticipated and subsequently disappointing non-announcement on May 5, 2017 seemed to suggest there might not be enough agreement to build a unity plan after all.  The Unity Discussion Group was formed a mere 6 weeks earlier with unity backers from the former PC party (and one person who declined to take part) and elected individuals from the Wildrose.  There were rumblings that the discussions were not going well between the parties and that it was rooted in a general mistrust of the other side.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

Fast forward to May 18 where the unlikely future colleagues announced they have found a way forward to create the United Conservative Party, or UCP.  While there may have been some hard work on behalf of the discussion group, it sounds as if it was Brian Jean who needed the final nudge. Nine of his MLAs reportedly confronted him and said they would cross the floor to join the Kenney-led PC's, making them the official opposition, unless he accepted the agreement.  

However they managed it, there is finally some movement for the two parties who would like to blend together into one slightly larger Wildrose party with Wildrose values, policies and, the big win, some former PC supporters.  If that doesn't cause you to swoon,  Alberta will be treated to yet another leadership race involving Jason Kenney this year as the parties have agreed to hold the leadership election on October 28, 2017.  

While the parties have made a small move in the “right” direction, hundreds, perhaps even thousands of current members are still going to have to vote for unity.  The former PCs require 51% of their membership to approve the agreement and the Wildrose needs 75. Add to this the simultaneous messaging of the Wildrose members being promised their party, policies and values will remain, and the former PCs are being promised they will defeat Notley's government.  So, win/win... I guess?  

There’s still hope; if Kenney has taught us anything since entering Alberta politics it's that anyone can buy a membership and vote; even (especially?) if you don’t support the party. 

We all have an idea of what would happen if they unite but what if the current or future membership did not support unity?  Kenney appeals to a faction of the Wildrose base so they could continue to bleed votes without a unity agreement. Kenney has a well-known track record of not supporting human rights for all and is an easy target on the subject.  Did I mention that anyone can buy a membership and vote for what they believe will be the best outcome for the people of this province?  Members must be registered 21 days prior to voting.  Just saying. 

War of the Roses

When Jason Kenney was elected as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, 2017, he was elected on a platform to Unite Alberta, or Conservatives, or the Right, depending whose event you attended and in which geographical location.  Since his election, we have seen the formation of a group of right-leaning PC and Wildrose members who were to tackle this business of unity.  The most recent official update stated the group was having discussions and would later update on those discussions.   It doesn't appear that much is being accomplished in that area.  Or is it?

On Sunday night, the rumour mill started running.  Word was that there were 5 sitting PC MLAs (David Rodney, Prab Gill, Ric McIver, Richard Gotfried and Mike Ellis) and 5 WRP MLAs who were going to form an independent caucus in the legislature on Monday afternoon.  I reached out to someone I thought would know and he told me my grapevine was over-excited.  As we now know, it didn't happen on Monday but word is still strong that the plan is going forward.

Credit: Global News

On Tuesday I attended the New Conservative Dinner hosted by Scott Gilmore.  Having attended a few sessions in the very recent past asking similar questions (what is important to you? how should we be moving forward? why are you unhappy with the current state of politics?) the only change was the attendees.  I've participated in discussions with Liberals, Centrists and Moderates.  I've even had lunch with a nutty Wildroser who, unfortunately, confirmed every reason why I could never support that party.

There was a mix of people at this event and that makes things interesting.  One gentleman said he didn't quite understand why these discussions were taking place right now.   Why not wait until after the federal leadership race was over?  My best guess is that it's because people are engaged right now; after the leadership race, they may pack up or disengage.  I agree that the time for these conversations is now.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of people who complained their MP didn't seem to represent them.  The majority of people in the room self-disclosed as card carrying CPC members with a show of hands when Scott asked.  The leadership race has been incredibly divisive with anti-Canadian values and anti-everything that most people realize is the new normal.  Many agreed with a statement from one woman who said "the country has evolved; the CPC has not".  And that's what many progressive conservatives are currently saying to the PC/WR party.

Evolution is not generally a Conservative strong point and that's literally a definition; conserving tradition, processes, beliefs, and so on.  Jason Kenney represents that description to a tee.  So is it any wonder that polls are suggesting an overall preference for Brian Jean to lead the united party?  In comparison, Brian Jean is more moderate than Jason Kenney can ever hope to pretend to be.  Brian Jean would have the opportunity to keep some of those centre-right leaning members.

The situation is remarkably similar to the federal party.  While Michael Chong is the favourite for the Progressive Conservatives of old, and while he is moderate enough to actually have a shot at stealing votes from Trudeau; it's unlikely he will win because "he's either first on your ballot or last".  Bernier will not be last on a PC ballot because Trost, Leitch or Alexander will take that spot (the CPC use a ranked ballot where voters place their first, second, third down to 10th pick) meaning he will likely outrank Chong by being higher up on the ballot than last.

Logically, it fails.  The majority has spoken and said they would support Jean over Kenney.  So the tidbit that was dropped off to me on Tuesday makes little sense.  In a leadership race Jean would win unless another Wildroser entered that race to split the vote; someone under the Wildrose banner but who has always been on Team Kenney.  That was the tidbit... power over people.  No surprise there.

Who Would Give up Their Seat for Jason Kenney?

Will Jason Kenney remain unemployed as PC leader, or will he be fortuitous enough to discover a suddenly vacated riding to run in?  At this moment, we have no vacant ridings in Alberta so if he wants a seat, someone will have to give it up for him.  While there is obviously strong support for Kenney from the Wildrose Camp, I expect it would have far better optics to see a PC MLA to step down.

Global News Photos

The list of current PC MLAs is conveniently short: Wayne Drysdale, Mike Ellis, Prab Gill, Rick Fraser, Ric McIver, Richard Starke, Dave Rodney and Richard Gotfried.  Since Wayne Drysdale and Richard Starke are MLAs outside of Calgary, I highly doubt it will be one of them so we can reduce the possible candidates to six.  Prab Gill was the last MLA elected and he replaced the dearly departed Manmeet Bhullar.  I'm going to remove him as well but not because he was the last one elected; I'll come back to that.  Now we have five.

Ric McIver, as interim leader, had not publicly backed a candidate but he did tweet out a picture of himself and former PC member and Kenney advisor, Alan Hallman, watching the Medicine Hat leadership debate together. The assumption is that he favours Kenney.  Rick Fraser hasn't declared who has his support for the leadership but he has been very quiet both in and out of the legislature.   Dave Rodney, Richard Gotfried, and Mike Ellis have all publicly endorsed Jason Kenney.

Dave Rodney, Calgary-Lougheed was first elected in 2004 and is one of the two longest-serving MLAs in the PC Party right now.  Rick Fraser,Calgary-Southeast, and Ric McIver, Calgary Hays, were both elected in 2012. Mike Ellis, Calgary-West, was elected in 2014 and Richard Gotfried, Calgary Fish Creek, was elected in 2015.  In my opinion, any one of these MLAs would give up their seat for Jason Kenney but in this case, favourability lies in the numbers.

If you paid attention to the number of votes in 2015 (or since), you would notice that pretty much everyone in urban centres had a tight race.  Without bogging this down further, the following MLA's won their ridings by the following number of votes: Gotfried, 129, Fraser 305, Gill, 313, Rodney, 502, McIver 1,533 and Ellis 3,372.

The main reason I discount Gill is because they just had a by-election in Calgary-Greenway in 2016 and the turnout was a dismal 28%.  Gill ended up with 2,292 votes to WRP's 1979, Liberal's 1,849 and the NDP's 1,699.  Say what you will about coming in fourth place but a margin of 593 votes between the first and fourth place candidate is not a cushion I think Kenney would be comfortable with.  Now I don't honestly believe that Kenney is actually using a 1+1=2 formula to figure out where he has the best chance of winning because that's not statistically viable and he, or someone he pays, knows that.

Based on the numbers, Ellis had the strongest margin of support of any of the current MLAs.  He was also the first sitting MLA to endorse Kenney on September 16, 2016.  Most interestingly, Ellis mentioned in his endorsement that Kenney "has always been a leader in our community" (emphasis mine).

Even though Gotfried is the only PC MLA within Kenney's old federal riding of Calgary-Midnapore, Gotfried won by the least amount. That seat had previously belonged to Heather Forsyth, the former PC who crossed over to Wildrose in 2010.  She barely won her seat in 2012 with 38 more votes than the PC candidate.  It's a risk I wouldn't see Kenney taking.

My number one pick, therefore, between the current PC MLA's who would be most likely to give up his seat for Jason Kenney is Mike Ellis.

Note: I've heard through the grapevine that Kenney will not be vying for a seat until 2019.  My thought on that is either he doesn't trust his ability to win until there's a united conservative party for him to run under or he's going to take advantage of being "unemployed" while campaigning for the united party.  Or maybe it's both.

The Final PC Alberta Convention (with Buttons)

I collected every button I could find because I felt this would be the last time they would be made.  In retrospect, I should have taken extras.  I went into the convention without a horse in the race; I was only there as an observer, after all.  I also went to talk politics because I figured there would be one or two people around who would be into that.

Upon my arrival, I went to each of the candidate tables and picked up some swag (buttons) and each one went into my purse.  I knew the Kenney supporters would likely be the majority of attendees and because I love to talk politics, I wanted to have that opportunity by not wearing my views like scarlet letters.  I talked with someone I'd known from another career.  I talked with a young-ish couple who turned out to be Kenney supporters.  I decided I would introduce myself to people I recognized from Twitter and meet some progressives to round out the experience. 

As it turned out, my first instinct about not proclaiming my views with visual aids was correct.  My new acquaintances from Red Deer and I were getting along swimmingly until they saw my pin from Duncan Kinney (which I loved so I put on as soon as he gave it to me and forgot I was wearing it).  The one noticed it and I saw her mouth go "OH".  I ignored that and put my button back into my purse as we headed over to Kenney's party.  The room was huge, the music was loud, the lights were low and it kind of felt like it was the end of the night after a wedding.  I had to make some calls and I wanted to check out the other parties as well so I bailed.

I went up to Byron Nelson's suite and I could hear from the elevators that there were jovial people about.  The atmosphere was extremely upbeat and I talked with a few people and had a beer.  Slight digression here because it needs to be said: domestic drinks were $9 and premiums were $11.  Byron was giving out free beer.  I had a Heineken.  Anyway, I talked with some people, met Byron, got a card or two and made a new acquaintance who was heading to Richard Starke's party.  The atmosphere at Byron's party was super but the room was way too small and all those people gave it a muggy, hot feeling that I was completely overdressed for. 

We arrived at Richard Starke's party and that was a happening place.  The lights were on, there was seating and food (and $9 + drinks) and people were in a great mood.  I also found one of my Twitter buds and we talked politics.  At one point, a guy wearing a Sewer Rat button (I got one later) showed up and started talking with us.  He was happily complaining about the carbon tax and then moved on to talk about how it's a nice idea to go green energy and all "but how are they going to pay for it?!" My cohort said "the carbon tax" just as I coughed out "carbon tax" and we all had a great laugh. This was what I came for: people talking politics without having a conniption.

Kenney supporters were milling about, there were MLAs and campaign gurus and tonnes of volunteers and we all got to talk politics and have some laughs.  Looking back, those pre-vote parties were a celebration of the hard work that had gone into the campaigns.  A feeling of optimism was in the air; anything was possible tomorrow.  Sort of.

Some of us who pay attention to numbers thought the vote would go a certain way.  I have to admit that after I spent time with people from the Starke party, I realized that not everyone thought the outcome was going to be what it was.  Talking with one of the people from Starke's campaign, I asked if there were plans for a post-vote get-together.  She seemed unsure of what I might be referring to and I showed her the invite I had from Duncan for a "wake" that was scheduled at 7:00 the next night. What happened next was when it finally hit me that my disassociation to the outcome had caused me to neglect something very important; the people for whom the outcome really did matter.  She started to cry.  Needless to say, I felt horrible.  And humbled.

In the morning I met up with my new pal from the night before.  The campaigns were busy working on the candidate speeches and I was pretty excited for those.  I had missed them the night before because registration was rather disastrous and I was in line while they were taking place.  I found myself a seat in between a Kenney supporter and two Starke supporters.

The speeches were on point; their last effort at influencing the voters.  Byron still believed in the PC party and respected his fellow candidates.  Starke outlined the numerous embarrassing moments for the Wildrose.  Is that what people wanted from their elected officials, he asked, because that's what they were heading into with a united party.  As he started to list off the bozo eruptions, loud boos came from the back of the room. At first I wasn't sure if they were booing the acts themselves or the fact that he mentioned them.  It turned out to be the latter as, when I finally located the sound, it was coming from a large group holding Kenney signs.


My Starke companions were an elderly couple who scoffed frequently during Kenney's speech.  On the other side of me, the Kenney supporters were just as frequently getting up to clap.  When Kenney spoke again about the success of the united federal party one woman yelled out "but you lost that election!" Not that it matters, apparently.

We had three and a half hours to wait for the voting to take place and the votes to be counted. The candidates were busy with media interviews and I had plenty of time to talk to people.  I discovered there was another layer to the vote that I hadn't really considered: the plan.  Kenney had strong support, obviously, and people who actually want to see him as the leader of the next conservative party.  But one gentleman who left the PC's for the Wildrose a couple of years ago had an interesting story.  He said he was undecided about the leadership of the new party.

Though he was partial to Brian Jean, he felt Jean didn't utilize the media to the full extent he should.  As a delegate, he said he spoke to Kenney and Starke a number of times trying to gauge which would be a better choice for what he was interested in.  Kenney, he said, had explained his unity plan in such a way that this delegate felt it would be most successful.  For starters, the PCs had enough money to pay off the party debt.  According to what he understood, the plan is to fold the PC party and have the sitting MLAs move into the Wildrose.  The Wildrose will then be renamed and rebranded.

I spoke with a number of people while we were waiting for the voting booths to close.  More than one of those people spoke with more passion about the plan put forward than the candidates.  More than one of them said that's what they had voted for.  Starke's plan relegated Wildrose to perpetual opposition and they didn't think Wildrose would go for that.   A vote for Kenney's plan, they said, was not necessarily a vote for Kenney.  Interestingly, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of a "white knight" entering the united party leadership race.

After the vote tally was announced, I saw the couple of Starke supporters I'd sat next to that morning.  They were looking quite dejected and I decided to go tell them what I'd learned from people I'd talked to.  When I told them some were more interested in the plan than the candidate they seemed relieved. She looked up at her husband with what I can only describe as surprised optimism.  They thanked me for telling them and said it gave them some hope.

 Someone asked me why I even cared about this and I decided the reason was fairness.  The Nelson and Starke supporters were trying to keep their party and someone who didn't care about their party in the first place saw an opportunity to force them to give it up.  Yes, this is politics.  The only way forward for a genuine conservative party is to obliterate the baggage from the PC Party and the Wildrose Party.  While it wasn't all bad, a party with no history has no baggage; but I doubt that will last very long.

Go In Peace, PC Party

We are officially less than 12 hours away from the launch of the PC Leadership Convention and excitement is in the air!  To be clear, there's no sense of anticipation regarding the actual leadership vote as there's very little probability that Jason Kenney will not win.  If he's been truthful about the elected delegates being on his team, this is hardly even a contest. What's really exhilarating is that there will be a new race starting on March 19, 2017!  How can we be so lucky to have all of this activity in between election years?!

Strangely enough, the Leadership race has shown us what Albertans and many PC members thought about the party: they're done.  There are a few hangers on; some passionate and dedicated individuals who don't want to see their party dissolved into obscurity and I feel for them.  Ironically, the man who believes everyone has the right to die a slow painful death wants to be the one to remove the PC jugular and save it from such a fate.

The new United Conservative party will be the next big conversation piece in Alberta politics and it will be anything but dull.  Back in Nov - Dec 2016 a poll specifically asked those who favoured a United Conservative party if they would prefer a party led by Brian Jean or Jason Kenney.  Respondents chose Jean.  At that time, Brian Jean was claiming the Wildrose was not interested in joining with the PC party.  Only a mere month later, Jean announced he would step down from the Wildrose and run for leadership of that united party.

Then came a new twist.  A few days ago, another poll claimed that although Jean still held the lead in a race with Kenney he was not the front runner.  With an easy majority of votes, the clear winner to lead a United Conservative party was "I don't know", followed closely by "Someone else".  The publicly interested candidates are third and fourth... out of four possible choices.

Now that's what builds anticipation.  Who could this potential leader be?  People have suggested yet a third CPC MP alternative in Rona Ambrose but she hasn't shown any interest in the role.  Is there another former CPC MP who might be up to the task?  Would the membership even consider someone who wasn't a CPC MP?  Is there someone just biding their time until the united party is created?  The plot is so full of possible twists that whiplash becomes more than a potential side effect.

And that, my friends, will give everyone something to talk about.


D.

The NDP Hits Back and Gets Slapped

Monday's Question Period in the Legislature yielded a surprising statement from the Deputy Premier, Sarah Hoffman, that sparked an immediate backlash and gave rise to a number of interpretations from across the political spectrum.  I had some initial misgivings about searching both "youtube" and "sewer rats" but I wasn't disappointed.  The first offering was a video titled "NDP: You're all sewer rats!".  And that seems like as good a place to start as any.

Remy and Linguine ~ Ratatouille

In case you haven't heard, in response to Jason Nixon (WR - Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre), Sarah Hoffman (ND - Edmonton - Glenora, Alberta Health Minister, Deputy Premier) replied "...while we're focused on hard hats, they're spending time with sewer rats".  Brian Jean took to Twitter to claim this was a direct insult to Albertans and many people agreed with him.

On the other side of the debate was a confident and unapologetic interpretation of "sewer rats" referring to bigots, xenophobes, racists and the like, along with their sympathizers, fans and/or subscribers.  Hoffman has since apologized, saying only that it "certainly did not refer to Albertans".  Was it a dumb comment?  I think so.  Was it as outrageous as some are making it out to be?  Not so much.

I tend to check out Urban Dictionary when I want to know what the cool kids are saying (and I know what I'll get if I use an actual dictionary to find a definition for "sewer rat").  In summary, even Urban Dictionary had an entry for the literal term and none of the definitions seemed to fit either description from the political right or left.  The short list is rat-like features, "greasy, short male", "Ja Rule" (I don't even want to know) "Underground (secretive)" and my personal favourite "A punk ass scrap tryin (sic) to be hard".

Disney's "Ratatouille"

The examples are extraordinarily specific but if I put it all together, I would go with "unsavoury character" which is what a few people were saying at the time.  I, for one, think it relates to last week's Wildrose on Campus dumpster fire.  I have to note that issue itself received zero coverage from the opinion outlets; so much for "we report what the mainstream media won't" except when they want to provide some fuel for fired up ... Wildrosers?

Even though it wasn't quite on the same level as "Feminism is Cancer", the Wildrose corner the market on outrage.  They also corner the market on correct interpretations, apparently.  According to the #ableg feed from Monday night, only Brian Jean and fellow Wildrosers could accurately interpret Hoffman's meaning and all others who attempted were called "mind readers" and "clairvoyants".

The Wildrose blunder had more to do with timing; it was two days before International Women's Day.  Would it have sparked outrage anyway?  Likely.  Would it have been soooooo bad if it happened in April?  Probably not.  I would also recommend taking a look at the Red Pill if you get a chance as it's not about the men's movement that advocates for repeal of rape laws (surprise! That's a thing... a white guy thing).

Do I consider Hoffman's outburst to be worthy of the right wing drama?  Not really.  I highly doubted she was referring to Albertans at the time and I haven't been convinced by the Wildrose or opinion commentators who assert that she was.  All I can say is, if it speaks to you, then maybe you are one.  Wallow in it, whine about it, wear the badge with whatever pride this gives you.  I know she wasn't referring to me.

The Legend of Robert McDavid

Robert McDavid was the supposed Communications Director for the Wildrose on Campus (WROC) at the University of Calgary, according to the executives Keean Bexte and Don MacLeod (who have both since resigned their posts).  On March 6, 2017, an email was circulated inviting members to a screening of "The Red Pill" sponsored in part by the WROC and Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) Youth.  The subject line of that email was "Feminism is Cancer", an apparent nod to the "alt-right" poster boy Milo Yiannopolous.  According to Bexte, McDavid was fired after the email went public.

Jason Herring of The Gauntlet took on the task of trying to find McDavid.  WROC executives claimed McDavid was a first-year student in Engineering but the Office of the Registrar at the U of C could not find a student registered under that name.  Herring also tried to reach two McDavid's listed in the public directory but was unsuccessful.  Although no one can seem to find this person, "evidence" of his existence has been popping up in the least surprising places.

On March 8, 2017 Herring again reported on the story.  At that time, he had discovered a Facebook profile for "Robert McDavid" created on March 7, 2017 (since removed for violation of FB community standards).  The above screenshot of an account created this month showed up on Twitter last night.  The two accounts following the egg are an ardent Jason Kenney supporter and an account that performs essentially the same role as the former; disagreeing with, or "fact checking" those who disagree with Kenney.

Bexte was also a Jason Kenney supporting delegate at the upcoming PC Leadership convention.  Bexte... founder of the Wildrose on Campus... was a PC Youth delegate.

Let that simmer amidst the claims of Wildrose members infiltrating the PC Party to elect Jason Kenney...

Is this "just politics"?  Is this the politics our youth are being taught? Modeled?  That it's okay to make false political plays to get what you want and if something goes wrong you just "blame" and "fire" a non-existent member?  Maybe this kid was planning a future in politics.  Tell me, what is school like for him right now?  What does his future hold?

His name is associated with "Feminism is Cancer", "blaming a non-existent staffer" and being asked to resign from a delegate position.  And for what?  If there is someone else behind this little charade, they should be taking full responsibility from this kid because that's what he is: a kid.  A kid whose name, and shame, will not be forgotten in political circles.

D.

PC Party Delegate Selection Meeting

Earlier in February I drove over an hour to attend a delegate selection meeting (DSM).  This is just one more of those things that I've never had the interest, and therefore the opportunity, to attend.  I'm glad I went, though, because it was a gong show.

The average age of attendees was around 59. I wondered as I was looking around the room if it was just older people who show up at these things. Then I remembered I do have something to compare it to. Do you know what the average age is at an Alberta Party event? I'd give it 38.  I promise to attend a Liberal and NDP event in the future so I can compare them as well but obviously, this is a problem for conservatives.

As I entered the designated locale, there were two people standing outside the doors.  "Jason Kenney?" One of them asked me.  "Uhhh" I stammered. I wanted that sheet, but I also wanted the other one and I didn't know how this worked. "Renewal?" The next guy asked while handing me a sheet. I smiled and took his sheet as well.  I entered the building and there were four tables set up for registration.  She found my name, checked my two pieces of identification and gave me a ballot.  Being my first time I filled it out right away since I thought I had all the information I needed.

The rules were reviewed for us and we were going to hear from each of the delegates.  They were instructed to not say anything disparaging about another campaign or candidate and I now wished I could attend more to see if that's a problem at DSMs or if it's just part of the rules.  Even though I'd already chosen my candidates, I was happy we were going to hear from them.  (((Gong)))

The delegates were going to come up one by one and none of them took their full minute. Due to their efficiency, I can put this into bullet points:

1. is not committed to any candidate.  He is waiting for proof that the person running will be a good premier.  He was in municipal government and says that in 10 years he had never had an unbalanced budget.  He said government needs to get used to working with what they have and getting the best value for their dollar. He was new to this process and didn't trust those who make big promises and statements because you can't give everyone everything. 
2. is supporting unity as it's the "only way".  A coalition, he said, was just another shady backroom deal like the last time that would alienate voters. After they unite we can then have our choice of leader. 
3. "Alberta fell apart" she said "and it scared" her.  She is a teacher. "We need to teach kids what PC Alberta is" (is that social engineering?).  She wants a fiscally conservative, socially responsible government.  She is on the Renewal slate.
4. this delegate was listed on both slates as a supporter (wish I'd seen that before I marked my ballot) and was excused from attendance for a valid reason so I have no idea what he stands for.
5. was an Albertan first and would vote to unite together as conservatives.
6. wanted to unify on bigger issues than "defeat the NDP" and she wanted to "do it right".  She also mentioned that she saw a lot of "Wild Conservatives" and "Progressive Rosies" in the crowd.
7. brought up a piece of paper, said she wouldn't take long and had a verbal vomit of "grassroots members, conservatives unite, end socialist government, grassroots"... Unity slate.
8. said it didn't matter who the leader was so long as they "talk to us".
9. is a long-time conservative and is pro-unity.
10. said "if we do the same thing in 2019 expecting a different result, we're kidding ourselves." He wants to unite under Jason Kenney.  He also noted that he was listed on both slates and that was evidence of the "top-down PC party" of the past. 
11. wants to unite before the NDP tears this province apart. 
12. says we need to be strong and get the province back where it should be. 
13. wants to unite the parties with the grassroots. There is no future with the NDP.
14. believed that uniting the right was "admirable" but he wanted the parties to "do it right". 
15. he wasn't sure who he was going to vote for but he wanted the party to "take time to do it right". 
16. said we won't survive under this socialist government and he believed the right leader is Jason Kenney.
17. was an oilfield worker whose son was a recent graduate in environmental science, his daughter was a nurse and his wife was a nurse. Conversations around his table were interesting but they all agreed about one thing: Rewarding free-enterprise and working ethically.  It is important to get a free-enterprise conservative party. 
18. was born and raised in Alberta.  She had worked in oil and gas for 25 years and was a grassroots conservative.  She is voting to unite.
19. was a long-time conservative who is concerned about property rights and what this socialist government will do with them.  She is voting to unite. 
20. was born and raised in Alberta and just wants a fair shake and a government who represents the grassroots.
21. says it is a nightmare in Alberta.  She wants a strong socially responsible conservative government.  She was listed on the Unity slate. 
22. supports Jason Kenney because unity needs to happen for everyone, even the progressive side.  After they unite, we can then elect the right person to run the party and government. 

In the end, I found the people listed on the Unity slate to be cohesive and on-message and the Renewal slate to be less certain of their stance; two stated they didn't know who they would support (and one was on the Renewal slate and wasn't sure why).  Two people were on both slates and the one who was there to speak his peace said he had no idea how he got onto the Renewal slate.  He felt this was evidence of the "old top-down PC party". Talk about disorganization; and embarrassment. Someone once told me to watch Jason Kenney's campaign if I wanted to see a well-organized, tight campaign; he was right (of course).

I spoke with delegate hopeful number one afterwards because I was curious as to how he was going to make his decision.  Unfortunately, he wasn't yet sure.  He'd spoken with Fildebrandt about the unity plan previously but he just wasn't sure if this was the right way to go.  He agreed that there needed to be something more concrete than "beat the NDP" but none of the plans put forward have any more than that yet.  I asked if he'd attended any Wildrose events and he admitted he had not.  I told him the atmosphere was much different.  They are relatively excited, I said, and I think it's because they don't feel like they have anything to lose. The PC events, on the other hand, are mixed; some people are excited, others are not. 

Delegate hopeful number one said his real worry was where the center mass would go; would they go center-left with the liberals? Center-right with the Alberta Party? Would they re-elect the NDP? He doesn't think they'll follow the united conservative party.  I agreed.  Think what you will about the Wildrose plus PC equals beat the NDP but people had a choice last election and they didn't choose Wildrose. Maybe they're counting on a lot of people "holding their noses" to vote Wildrose 2.0.  Or, rather, praying for it. 

D.

A Telephone Town Hall with Jason Kenney

On February 8, 2017 I tuned in for a telephone town hall with Jason Kenney.  I'd never participated in one before and I figured it might be interesting.  I was not disappointed.

I wrote previously about the Unite Alberta get-together in Calgary back in January and I attempted to give a semi-unbiased recounting of that event.  One story, which I tried valiantly to corroborate, but could not, involved a 12 year old autistic girl from Grande Prairie who was put into counselling after she expressed doubt about her gender.  Not only, Kenney said, was she put into counselling, but she was given a boy's name and treated as a boy at school; all without telling the parents.  I bring this up now because this time he told us she was from Calgary.  That's how the town hall began.

One caller kept referring to "severely normal Albertans" and wanted to ensure "Martha and Henry" could have a say in the new party.  Kenney reiterated another story from January about how he "gave up his only income and hit the road in his pickup truck".  This story is becoming easier for him to tell even though it's not true.  Most people (though apparently not his supporters) recall that he did not resign his seat as MP until the end of September, almost a full three months after he began campaigning.  But, whatevs, I'm sure.

He told us that Brian Jean is willing to talk merger.  If Kenney is given a mandate, he wants to put Alberta first.  He claims he wants no pre-conditions on unification other than members choose.  Then he brought up the most recent statement from Brian Jean that Mr. Jean wants the party to unite under the legal framework of the Wildrose.  Kenney stated that he had never considered the possibility that one party would capitulate to the other.  He expects the parties to respect both sides, that they come together as equals and in good faith, "just create a new party and make a fresh start".

Another caller said that she believed the parties must amalgamate to have any hope of beating the NDP.  Kenney told her that that's why he was doing this; it was why he gave up his only income.  He believes the NDP will do irreparable damage to free-enterprise if they are given another term.

The carbon tax was brought up again and he promised the repeal of the carbon tax would be Bill1 if they win in 2019.  Again he brought up the "U of A professor" and I can't help but wonder why he won't say Andrew Leach's name.  Kenney name-drops all the time... I find it odd that he won't name Andrew.

There was a question about Bill 10 and parental choice.  To his credit, Kenney told the caller that there was unanimous support for Bill 10 from both Wildrose and PCs in the legislature.  In his mind, Bill 10 itself was settled.  He would, though, look into how the Bill was being implemented in schools as he did not like how the NDP was doing it.

The next caller had a question about the level of PC debt and whether that debt would be a deterrent to the Wildrose.  Kenney admitted that the Wildrose have much higher donations than the PC party but that between the PC party general and its constituency associations, there was enough to pay off the debt.  Kenney said he was not concerned about losing funds through a merger because the PC's are not raising enough money.  While the PC's are raising around $10,000 per month, the Wildrose have been raising about $100,000.  He mentioned that his campaign had raised more than both of them (the number I heard was $630,000+/- from October 2016 to December 2016 though he did not name a number tonight). Then he went way out: "The CPC raised $7,000,000 last year; way more than the PC's and Wildrose combined"... as if there's some natural comparison between a national party and a provincial party in terms of fundraising capabilities.

The following caller asked about the progressives in the PC party.  "The right will unite" he said, "but how do we win progressives?"  Kenney told him that he wants to build a big, broad, tolerant party.  He says he's never called it "unite the right".  There were successful coalitions by Lougheed and Klein.  He said the united party will tolerate a certain degree of difference but that it will be free-enterprise.  "You cannot redistribute wealth that hasn't been created."  He's actually said this a couple of times now and I wasn't sure what to make of it.  It's acceptable to redistribute wealth in a good economy but not a bad one?  Redistribution of wealth is okay for conservatives but not for anyone else?  .....

The final question was regarding the merged/united party.  "Will we select either PC or Wildrose policies after they're forged into one party?"  Kenney said that he wants the PC party and the Wildrose to negotiate.  It should be voted upon by a clear majority of Wildrose members.  It would be a fresh start and a new beginning.  He told those on the phone to also purchase a Wildrose membership so they could have a say.  It's a strange day in politics, I think.

D.

Nothing has Changed for Wildrose

It was standing room only at a crowded town hall at the Strathmore Legion planned by the local MLA Derek Fildebrandt. "How many of you are PC members?" He asked.  One lone gentleman raised his hand.  The topic of this meeting was uniting the Conservative vote and it would probably help if other conservatives would attend.  Sometimes though, an echo chamber is all you need.

"I have a lot of respect for Conservatives in the PC Party" he said.  "There are some very good members who are strong Conservatives but the PC Party was hijacked by a faction of liberals who are scared they're going to have to go back to the liberal party."  The crowd chuckled so this might have been a joke.  He told a story about  walking to the legislature with Sandra Jansen and said she asked him if there would be room for liberal-minded people in a united conservative party.  He beat about the bush and told the crowd that any person who is for free enterprise is welcome in a united conservative party.

The people who attended were overwhelmingly in agreement that the conservatives should unite (with the exception of the aforementioned PC member).  Recall that this town hall took place in a rural riding, most of which, across the province, are stark conservative ridings and currently represented by a Wildrose MLA.  In these areas, they see the issue for what it is; the cities are more liberal than they are and their party won't form government without the cities.  Why do they want a united conservative party?  Because they don't have to give anything up.

The PC party has had success in the cities as well as the rural areas.  You don't get 44 years of one-party rule without assistance from the largest cities in the province.  To rural Wildrose supporters, there's only one way to win government; remove the progressive conservative faction.  When this was brought up by an audience member, Fildebrandt referred to the federal vote.  "More than 60% of voters chose the Conservative party federally".  Some, though, say that people vote for different things at different levels of government.

Does a united conservative party have a chance to beat out the NDP in 2019?   Of course they do, but progressive conservatives are still thinking about what this means for them.  They didn't support the Wildrose in the last election and some have no intention of supporting them in the next one.

Do the Wildrose want to take over the PC party?  Certainly.  Remove the vote split, one and one equals two and all that.  Looking at both sides of the debate, it's definitely not a worry for the Wildrose supporters; they're strong and they're united.  For them, nothing has changed.

The Saga is Ongoing

The PC Party held a Leadership Debate in Edmonton on Sunday where Richard Starke, Jason Kenney, Stephen Khan and Byron Nelson squared off.  Kenney remains the only candidate who is campaigning for the party's destruction through a merger with the Wildrose (possibly into a completely new party).  The other three are campaigning on party renewal.

Kenney's grand idea likely stems from his own experience with a merge at the federal level. In 2003 the membership of the federal Progressive Conservative Party voted to merge with the Canadian Alliance Party and become the Conservative Party of Canada. The Liberals won in 2003 but the united conservatives won a minority government in 2006 with a Liberal Opposition.  Two years later, they formed a slightly larger, but still minority, government also with a Liberal Opposition.  In 2011 they finally won a majority government and the NDP became the Official Opposition.  Just one election later, in 2015, the Liberals won a majority with the Conservatives taking over as Official Opposition.

Alberta, however, has not seen this sort of back and forth.  In 1935 the Social Credit Party won its first majority government and stayed in power until 1971.  Social Credit was beaten by the Progressive Conservatives who ruled Alberta until 2015.  This strange history of not changing out governments could be why Kenney felt he had to leave federal politics and save us.  He's here to stop a non-conservative government from potentially governing the most conservative province in Canada for 30 or so years.

To achieve this feat, Kenney is counting on the tabulation of votes for PC and Wildrose in the 2015 election.  The logic is that Wildrose and PC votes added together beat the NDP in many cases and therefore a united party could beat the NDP in 2019.  That's it. If Albertans only have a choice between Conservative or not conservative, he and his backers believe that Albertans will vote conservative (which is how Alberta voted federally).

The flaws in this logic are many and varied but here's a sampler:

1.  More people voted against PC, and against Wildrose, than for either of them individually.  That is not necessarily the case with NDP (in one riding, the NDP clobbered the opposition by 6-8000 votes where the combined opposition vote was less than 3000 and this was not an isolated case).  Those results were non-existent for ANY other party in the 2015 provincial election.
2. People vote for different things at different levels of government. 
3. In this case, 1 + 1 does not actually equal 2.  Wildrose has a bad reputation for being anti-LGBTQ+, socially repressive, climate change denying, fact-resistant whiners.  The PC Party (from which many of the "more" conservative voters defected to Wildrose) was the "big tent party".  They were a coalition of progressives and conservatives and governed accordingly; socially progressive while still appeasing fiscal conservatives.  Kenney is not progressive (he is most accurately described as a Wildrose supporter).  He wants to "unite the right"wing voters and expel the progressives.  Those voters will not follow either Kenney or Wildrose.
4. There's no guarantee the Wildrose is going to merge with the PC Party.  Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose, said he was opposed to a merger of the PC's and his party (though it's debatable how much his opinion matters as he is definitely standing out as not-so-Wildrose) while the number two has publicly backed it.
5. There is another fiscally conservative and socially progressive party in Alberta; the Alberta Party.  Folding the PC Party could do more for the Alberta Party than for the Conservative conglomerate (if people figure out who the Alberta Party is).
6. A united right party could push moderate small-c conservatives and social progressives straight to the NDP in fear of a hard-right conservative government (the most likely outcome in my opinion).

A sampler... each deserving of, and will likely receive, a more detailed post in the future.

D.