Equalization and You (Cue Matches)

When a politician wants Albertans to light their hair on fire it is easily accomplished with two little words: "equalization payments".  It's almost as if some politicians want us to keep our minds on Ottawa and forget about what's going on here at home.  Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose and Jason Kenney, current leader of the UCP, are presently blowing the dog whistle but we've heard it all before.

One of Harper's 2004 campaign promises was to return the equalization formula to a ten-province standard rather than the current five-province, middle-income standard (it was current in 2003 and remains so to this day).  The issue, generally, is that most people don't understand what equalization is and how it works.  That allows certain politicians to use that to their advantage.

An excellent paper from 2004 compared the five-province standard to a ten-province standard and showed that equalization payments would increase if Alberta was part of the equation.  To put that into free-market terms, if employee wages were based on average wages paid at company X, you don't want the CEO's wage included; you only want to use the mid-range wages.  Alberta is the CEO.

Distribution of federal expenditures, 2014

So Harper walked back that campaign promise and in 2006, Klein threatened to "not participate" in equalization.  For all of their bluster, though, provincial politicians have zero pull when it comes to the formula (unless they're sitting MPs in the federal government, as both Jason Kenney and Brian Jean were in 2006, 2009 and 2013).  The reason neither provincial politicians hoping to form government nor politicians who actually run government have any say is because the province does not write a check to Ottawa. 

This cannot be said any simpler: our federal taxes are used to pay equalization; yours, mine, residents of Quebec, Ontario, and even Atlantic Canada.

As Prime Minister Trudeau, in his less than elegant way, said while in Calgary yesterday, the federal government has been there for Alberta.  Calgary will receive $1.5 billion in federal funding for the Green Line.  The federal government also increased unemployment benefits for Albertans during the recent recession and coughed up almost a billion in 2016 to help with costs related to the Fort McMurray fire.  So even though Alberta didn't receive "equalization payments", the province, and many people in Alberta, received, and will continue to receive, federal funding when needed.

Equalization exists right in our home province as well.  Revenue from provincial and property taxes build new schools in cities and small towns around the province.  Hospitals are upgraded, roads are improved and funding from the provincial government is granted to help build new recreation centres or fund programs in rural areas that don't have the tax base to support massive infrastructure.  Sure, Calgarians might feel their taxes should fund upgrades to Strathmore's hospital or the long-term care centre in Olds rather than their Cancer centre; but probably not.

The point is, there's a reason equalization exists; to help your rural Albertan neighbours and your fellow Canadians have access to services they need.  Equalization is paid out of your taxes and the government's role is to allocate funds to ensure all Canadians, and Albertans, have a reasonably similar standard of living; and that costs money.

So, please, Alberta, stop lighting your hair on fire over equalization.  You live in one of the wealthiest provinces with some of the strongest programs and services in the country, make the highest average wages, and pay the least taxes.  Equalization isn't the reason Alberta is in debt; it's because almost 80% of Albertans don't want to see cuts to programs and services but neither are they willing to pay for them. 

UCP: From or Into the Ashes?

It's been quite the week and a half since UCP members overwhelmingly chose Jason Kenney as their Leader.  Despite publishing the results before the official announcement, people without cell phones or internet were still quite excited to find out who won.  "We don't care in this party what God you worship or who you love.." Kenney declared to a crowd of both ecstatic and disappointed observers.  That little shocker aside, we've heard it all before.

Walking around the room, I spoke with a number of people.  Of all my conversations, the most difficult was with Leela Aheer who suggested I join her board.  I've spoken with her at a few events this year and  I like Leela, I really do; I just don't understand why she is a UCP member.

Granted, she whole-heartedly supported the more likable Brian Jean but after almost two weeks, she is still there.  Perhaps her promotion to Deputy Leader the morning after gave her hope she may wield some influence.  Dave Rodney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed stepped down the day after the announcement to allow Jason "I'm in no rush to get into the legislature" Kenney to run for a seat in the legislature.

A number of people migrated to the Wildrose when they were fed up with the PC party.  Alberta has historically been a conservative province and they don't appreciate government waste.  There was a large group of recently-Wildrose-now-UCP members supporting Brian Jean who were part of that migration: fiscal conservatives who were also either socially liberal or socially libertarian. In either case, they don't identify with Jason Kenney's social conservatism.

Kenney did other political parties in Alberta a favour by running for the PC leadership and he did them an even bigger favour by uniting with the Wildrose.  Through the subsequent leadership race conservatives were offered three options:  Doug Schweitzer who campaigned to the young and centre-right, Kenney to the staunch social conservatives and Brian Jean held up the centre to middle right.  Although they tried not to fracture the newly-formed party, the vast difference between the leadership candidates ensured the culmination of that race would benefit someone other than the UCP.

Most polls proclaimed if the election were held yesterday, the UCP would win.  Polls also said that UCP would have more support under Brian Jean than Jason Kenney but that was then.  This week, Jason Kenney decided not to take Rob Breakenridge's advice and opposed Bill 24, a bill that legislates children's privacy in being a member of a Gay-Straight Alliance club at their school (Breakenridge has written four articles in 2017 regarding Kenney and social conservatism).

In a vote on the second reading of Bill 24, legislation that allows for the creation of Gay Straight Alliances, only 8 UCP MLAs attended to vote on record; and they all voted against the Bill.  Derek Fildebrandt, the independent but highly partisan MLA for Strathmore-Brooks also voted against the Bill.

Leela Aheer, MLA for Chestermere - Rockyview gave an impassioned speech acknowledging the need for GSAs prior to the vote but did not return to vote; neither did MLA for Grande Prairie - Smoky Todd Loewen nor Prasad Panda MLA for Calgary-Foothills, who were also present prior to the 15 minute division.  Adding salt to the already open wound, Mike Ellis, UCP MLA for Calgary-West presented an amendment to remove section 9 from Bill 24 the next morning.  In his statement, Ellis accused the government of providing sexual education without parental consent through GSAs.

Seeing people defend their membership in a party that now has a leader they fundamentally disagree with has been enlightening.  They disagree with the leadership directive but they are defending their choice to stay or, worse, remaining silent.  There is no reason to stay loyal to a party that has existed for all of four months except one: those aforementioned polls.  If the MLAs cannot or will not stand up for what they believe in then it would seem they aren't worth the votes that put them there.  If they wish to stand for the  principles they claim to have, there is no time like the present to remove themselves from the heat of Kenney's socially conservative agenda.  The Lake of Fire 2.0 will not be as kind to the party the second time around.

UCP Leadership: Won and Done?

As Albertans enter the final leg of a leadership race that has seemed to emulate American political theatre ad nauseam, let's take a moment to reflect on the past three months.  Yes, the leadership race officially began on July 22, 2017.  It feels longer because unemployed politician Jason Kenney, Fort McMurray-Conklin MLA Brian Jean and Calgary lawyer Doug Schweitzer have been campaigning for 15, 10 and 4 months respectively.  It probably also feels longer because as of today, the leadership race has been going on for three months and 5 mind-bendingly long days.

L-R Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney, MLA Brian Jean
Credit: LethbridgenewsNOW.com 

On a positive note, it is almost over and we will finally have the privilege of knowing who almost half of the UCP membership will choose to lead the united conservative party.  There's something old, something new and a veritable palette of shades of blue.

Doug Schweitzer made non-UCP members pay attention in the wake of Charlottesville when he called out Rebel Media's Alberta Bureau Chief for stoking white nationalism. It also garnered Schweitzer the title of "leftist" from said Chief.  Schweitzer ran a decent campaign as the "moderate conservative" and has attracted support from a number of former PCs who somehow believe he has a hope of winning the leadership.  While his campaign is almost as factually creative as Kenney's, Schweitzer's message of "new blue" moderate conservatism speaks to a broader general electorate who, after 44 years of electing progressive conservatives, may themselves be moderately conservative.

Brian Jean is the favourite among moderate conservatives from the former Wildrose camp (who are also likely former PCs).  Brian has been a staunch conservative, voting against same-sex marriage while an MP and strangling all effectiveness out of the phrase "will not increase your taxes" as the newly elected Wildrose leader.  He has mellowed somewhat since being elected to serve Albertans in the legislature and now takes a a more libertarian stance of "social issues only exist if we talk about them".  Brian Jean is in the unique position of having the party stalwarts turn on him in favour of Jason Kenney who, ironically, won the leadership of the socially progressive party. And if you haven't seen Kenney's number one fan, Campaign Life Coalition's, updated criticism of Brian Jean's voting record (here), you are missing out on basking in the intended consequence of social conservative back-patting.

And then there is Jason Kenney, self-styled as Alberta's Saviour.  The plucky young liberal from Saskatchewan, who realized he was instead a conservative, bragged about running from a Saskatchewan NDP government two full years before the NDP were elected there.  Kenney spread his doom and gloom clear across the province at the fiscally conservative cost of $1.5 million dollars; that's $250,000 per month or $1,347.71 for each of the 1,113 votes he received to become leader. Kenney has indeed accomplished something spectacular in winning the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta; where once a proud legacy of social progressiveness was an honourable badge of leadership, Kenney's personal brand of social stagnancy now tarnishes the legacy of a once innovative and forward-thinking party that helped Alberta become the economic envy of a nation.

While the votes are still being counted, side bets are being taken on how much of the vote Kenney will take on the first ballot.  In certain circles of people who know people, the numbers are as high as 65%.   There are few who believe the other two candidates have a chance against Kenney; some of whom have probably paid the $20 fee to be in the Palomino Room at the BMO Centre in Calgary on Saturday at 5:00 pm.  While there are few who believe a second ballot will be needed, it's still fun to imagine something interesting could happen.

Kenney vs. Jean: Too Soon to Tell

The polls that made headlines this week were interesting to say the least.  The United Conservative Party still shows a healthy lead over everyone else, no matter who wins the leadership, but Brian Jean leads Jason Kenney by a healthy majority according to a Mainstreet poll. When the PC dynasty fell, to the NDP no less, the shock was felt across the country but also stunned politicos outside of the country.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

If you've spent time with the election data from 2015, you know there was an anomaly.  Other than the fact that the NDP formed government, you would notice the Progressive Conservatives still managed to earn a lot of votes; over 50,000 more than the Wildrose's 360,511.  Yet the PC's ended up with 11 seats less than the Wildrose's 21.  This simply showed that their votes were cast over a much wider area that did not amount to winning ridings whereas the Wildrose votes were more centralized and managed to gain seats.

NOTE: the following polls surveyed all Albertans as the organizations do not have access to membership lists.

Jason Kenney as UCP leader

ThinkHQ's online poll showed that support for the NDP is stronger with Jason Kenney as leader. As the Metro's Elizabeth Cameron noted, Jason Kenney looks to have equal support from both urban and rural areas while Brian Jean has much greater support from rural. This analysis is what makes things interesting.  Could Jason Kenney as leader end up garnering support in 2019 in the same way Prentice did in 2015?  We can see that support does not guarantee seats.

At Calgary Pride, I spoke with a Calgary resident in a UCP shirt.  I asked him what he was hoping for in the leadership race.  Unsurprisingly, due to the location of our conversation, he said he was voting for Brian Jean.  This was, I admit, exactly what I was hoping to hear because the real question I had was this: "So what will you do if Kenney wins?" I asked. "Will you hold your nose and vote UCP anyway?" He didn't seem to want to answer but I persisted. "No," he finally told me, "I will be in political purgatory."

Jason Kenney, I truly believe, will inspire similar responses from red tories across the province. His lack of consideration for Alberta's LGBTQ2+ community members reeks of indifference if not outright disdain. Though the LGBTQ2+ community may be small in comparison to the Canadian population (and therefore provincial), the number of allies to the community is growing every year. Prentice felt that support when the PC's proposed ridiculous alternatives to Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman's Bill 202 with the "parental rights" foundation of Bill 10. Kenney, for all his purported political savvy, seems determined to further that stance.

Brian Jean as UCP leader

Brian Jean appears to be much more palatable to the general public than Jason Kenney but his detractors are loud. Former Wildrose president and current UCP leadership hopeful Jeff Callaway claimed Brian Jean was too selfish to become leader.  Obsessive political observers know there is no love lost between Jean and Fildebrandt but not everyone is obsessive.  At a Unite the Right town hall Fildebrandt held in his riding of Strathmore Brooks when he was still "considering" a run for UCP leader, one attendee stood up and asked "If you win the leadership, will Jason Kenney support you? Obviously Brian Jean will but can you count on Kenney?"

I fully expect Kenney would publicly throw support behind Brian Jean to ensure a UCP win if Jean became leader.  I actually believe Jean would do the same for Kenney.  There is a big difference between their supporters though.  Kenney tends to woo the religious right and they religiously follow him.  Jean has support from more moderate types because he himself is much more moderate than Kenney. Jean's support of over 50% of Albertans were he to win the leadership to Kenney's less than 40% is telling.  If Fildebrandt is correct and Jean is "not a leader", it stands to reason that people will not follow him if he asks them to support Kenney.

According to a Mainstreet survey released at the beginning of August, the UCP would win an election held at that time but would be shut out of Edmonton, mirroring the results from the above ThinkHQ poll.  Mainstreet's poll though, showed a decrease in support for a Kenney led UCP.  Of those who polled as "undecided" and "voting NDP" the numbers are 21% and 21% respectively if Brian Jean is leader but 28% and 22% if Kenney leads.

While one cannot accurately predict the outcome of an election two years in advance based on today's sentiments, there is a pattern to keep an eye on. Kenney is a social conservative in a province that has moved on.  Jean is a moderate in comparison to Kenney but if he wins the leadership race, he will be compared to an actual moderate like the Alberta Party's Greg Clark and the still likable, if currently unpopular, Premier Notley.  Whoever becomes UCP leader has a lot of time to ruin their chance to form government; in 2012, it only took three days.

Fundraising, Leadership Races and Jobs

Back in 2015 when the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta launched their leadership race, the entry fee was $50,000.  Last week, two United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, sent out an email requesting donations to raise $75,000 for the leadership entry fee which had yet to be determined.  Friday it was announced that each candidate will only have to come up with $95,000 to run for leader and 21%, or $20,000, is refundable if the candidates operate within the rules.

Jason Kenney raised a reported $1.45 million dollars for his bid to become leader of the Progressive Conservative Association and spent $1.5 million to secure the 1,113 votes which saw him elected as leader. The PC party purportedly had a membership of around 40,000 (that's 2.7%).  A campaign spokesman also claimed an additional $500,000 was raised through a separate entity which would bring the total to just under $2 million dollars.  That number, however, is less than the same spokesman claimed was raised previously. And all during one of the worst recessions Alberta has ever seen. We're getting used to the double-speak, though.

The $300,000 UCP will earn from the four candidates, in addition to the recent release of 7 staff members, should alleviate the caucus budget woes. For all Brian Jean's assurances that "there is no deficit", being $322,000 over budget suggests otherwise. It was an easy mark for Kenney to pounce on.

Yes, it would be hypocritical for Jean to claim he could balance a provincial budget without balancing a caucus budget.  The thing to remember is that as of July 22, 2017, the caucus budget changed. A select few have related the current budgetary issues to the reduction in caucus funds resulting from the party merger.  It is said the budget allotted to Wildrose was reduced by $400,000 as a result; you do the math.

Still, UCP considered asking caucus to use their personal MLA allowances to help reduce the deficit; but that's like raising taxes on citizens to cover spending for gosh sake's. In the end, the UCP found a new revenue stream in the leadership race and cut expenses.  While Jason Kenney would like to blame MLA Brian Jean, it makes as much sense to blame MLA Dave Rodney or MLA Drew Barnes because they aren't leading the UCP either.

Drew Barnes, UCP/Wildrose MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat tweeted "This is more than just caucus deficit.  It is jobs, kid's hockey fees, livelihoods. We can do better". While the UCP promise to reduce government workers (to much fanfare from their supporters) some appear to understand what happens when people lose their jobs. Contrary to popular Wildrose/UCP misconception, individuals working for government are also people who need food, shelter, their job.. and probably aren't cannibals.

Granted, Kenney and friends are trying their best to throw Brian Jean under the bus for having hired people in the first place but this is a different caucus, with a different budget, than what existed before.

One recently fired employee, Cole Kander, detailed his view of the unfairness in a weird "spurned lover"-like post.  Between his fawning over Brian Jean ("a leader I thought walked on water") and his probable genuine sadness at losing his job ("It was everything I wanted, desired and hoped to do with my life."), Kander announced his intention to run for the candidate nomination for the UCP in 2019. Considering he isn't likely to be the most trusted potential employee in political circles after that post, I guess it's a logical step.

What Kander didn't mention is that he was Derek Fildebrandt's legislative assistant.  Walk that back a moment.  Cole Kander, legislative assistant to Fildebrandt, who stepped down from caucus August 15, 2017, was let go.  The UCP, for whom Derek no longer works, but who paid the salary of Kander, let Kander go. Team Kenney may have the money but their game is pretty weak so far.

The Real Choice

Monday started off better than last week with Brian Jean actually going so far as to make a policy proposal.  It's awful but anything that takes attention away from Fildebrandt for a bit is a blessing.   While it's likely we haven't heard the last of the expense scandals, at least there's questionable and inappropriate policy to talk about today.

Jean introduced his policy with a standard phrase designed to keep his supporters scared and angry;

The NDP government is starting us down the wrong path by imposing their ideology and eroding the choices Alberta students have so benefited from (in) the past.  They’ve launched their massive curriculum review with no indication who is leading it or where it’s going.  

The UCP/Wildrose group has had a lot of success with this narrative.  Kenney raised alarm about the curriculum review but wouldn't go so far as to say a UCP review would be transparent.  Two weeks prior to Jean's media scrum on Monday, Kenney also claimed students were being taught "fads".  The two front-runners, let's be honest, will do everything they can to make this about personality.  If they have the same talking points, then you only have to vote for the person you like better... or dislike less.

Malcolm Mayes, Edmonton Journal, June 2016

With all the discussion around the certainty that the current government will impose their ideology on students, the Wildrose/UCP are suggesting they can, and will, do the same.

We would focus on enhancing the curriculum from an Alberta perspective by improving financial, historical and energy literacy.  Alberta is the best province in the best country in the world and our students need to be taught exactly that.  

Would an "Alberta perspective" include the Wildrose/UCP whopper that Alberta makes transfer payments to our eastern provincial neighbours?   This is indeed worrisome because although it certainly is a perspective widely found in this province, it's only loosely based on reality.  Canadian citizens pay federal taxes and the federal government gives money back to provinces based on need.  It's really not a difficult concept unless you're trying to sell a lie.

There was also something Jean said that I somewhat agree with;

We do Alberta’s children no favours by giving out passing grades without them achieving their full potential.  We would end the “No Zero” policy.  If you don’t do the work, you should get a zero.  Students must complete the work and demonstrate a minimum level of achievement to advance to the next grade.  

I agree with teachers that no one should tell them they can or cannot give a certain mark; they are the professionals.  With that being said, the case for a no-zero policy actually makes sense if you consider the reasoning behind its implementation.  With children currently attending Alberta's K-12 system, I am of the opinion that a no-zero policy increases responsibility and collaboration between the child, parent and teacher.  What is easier?  Helping a student complete an assignment or giving them a zero and moving on?  The no-zero policy was brought in to enforce exactly what Jean is saying: "Students must complete the work".

Our plan to strengthen Alberta’s education system would ensure parents remain the primary educator of their children by allowing for the choice in education they want their children to receive. Commitment to diversity and choice in Alberta’s education system will ensure success for students.  

"Choice".  We should not forget that libertarian policies still want the government to pay for your children's education, they just want to ensure someone can make a profit.  Public schools don't make money but a lot of money, taxpayer money, is spent on them.  If the libertarian movement could get their hands on the money "given" to education, they would ensure a few people could profit.  That's the real choice Brian Jean wants to provide and no, Mr. and Ms. "ordinary", "average" Albertan, he's definitely not talking about you.

 

Why Would Kenney Lie?

The events in Charlottesville last weekend seem to have opened up a firestorm raining down on the head of Nazi sympathizing media outlet, the Rebel.  In turn, the heat from said fire has started to make those politicians and electoral hopefuls who support them a little uncomfortable.  On Sunday, United Conservative Party leader candidate Doug Schweitzer was the first UCP hopeful to publicly condemn both the right wing media and its contributors, commentators and guests, and the bandwagon continued filling up all week; if to a lesser extent.

Credit: Rebel Media

Other UCP leadership candidates, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, were less emphatic in their condemnation.  Brian Jean, whose very short-lived appeal to moderates encouraged commentators for the outlet to question his commitment to conservatives, reiterated his support for free speech but claimed he was "concerned with the commentary and editorial direction" of the Rebel.  Having been on the receiving end of a clash with the Rebel before, it seems he is unwilling to say more.

Jason Kenney, claimed he was "repeatedly attacked by Rebel for criticizing them" but little evidence of this can be found.  For 5 straight pages of a custom Google search within the Rebel's site, there is nothing but articles denoting praise for Kenney. On the sixth page, there is finally a commentary with what looks as if it may offer the kind of attack Kenney claims he received.  In May of 2017, Levant produced a video in which he mentioned both Jean and Kenney and the stance they took in response to a chant of "lock (Premier Rachel Notley) up" at the Rebel's Carbon Tax rally in December 2016 saying:

"... provided the leader (of the united conservative party) has the courage of their convictions to undo the damage (caused by NDP policies).  I'm not even fully convinced of that. I see political correctness creeping into both those parties.  I mean, obviously the Progressive Conservatives are still a split personality, lots of red tories there. I know that both Brian Jean and Jason Kenney for example condemned our rally on the steps of the legislature in Alberta in December where nearly 3000 men and women were there to protest the carbon tax; many of them unemployed.  But Kenney and Jean condemned the men for a quick. light-hearted chant to 'lock her up' as if those men really meant to kidnap her and lock her up or something instead of just having a light-hearted moment to (lessen) the pain of their unemployment." May 19, 2017

There was little criticism levied against Kenney and certainly not what one could reasonably consider an "attack".  Even the articles that suggest there might be something negative about Jason Kenney within neither mention him by name nor link to anything other than another commentator's (or more of their own) personal opinions; which, again, do not mention Kenney at all.  So why would he lie?

Kenney was already called out for stating he had not appeared on the Rebel for over a year.  Now it looks as if he's crying wolf about being "repeatedly attacked".  If anything, Kenney has been repeatedly fawned over.  Is he trying to maintain public support from the conservative (but not Nazi sympathizing) voters?  Or is he simply seeking the balance that will allow the Rebel to continue to garner support from Alberta's alt-right?  Kenney can hardly be blamed for what the Rebel chooses to write about (and omit) but one has to wonder why he would lie about his long, comfortable history with Rebel media.

Note: If anyone has a screenshot of Gunn-Reid's "Who told Doug it would be a good idea to pick a fight with me?" tweet that Schweitzer quoted, please pass it on.

Centrist Politics: Right-Light Category

As the deadline to buy memberships to vote on the question of conservative unity passed, it was said internal polling by both the former Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties shows a strong indication of a victory for the unity question.  Of the three who have declared their candidacy for the leadership race that will follow a successful vote for a united party, Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney and Brian Jean, Schweitzer had been the only one to release a platform for his leadership bid.  However, Brian Jean was in full campaign mode when he sat down with Rick Bell on Thursday.  That's when things became confusing.

Photo Credit: Twitter, Woods Homes @ChildMntlHealth 

In the last three weeks, I have attended three Alberta Together events, meeting people who are former PC, Wildrose and Liberal supporters.  Talking with more than a few of them the issues brought up were: the former PC supporters don't support Kenney and the merger; the Wildrosers are fed up with the idiocy coming from the elected Mouthpiece Legislative Agitators; and the Liberals?  They're looking for a fresh start.  All of them are looking to a party that holds fiscal conservative and socially progressive values.  So, apparently, is Brian Jean.

The current leader of the Wildrose party claimed "most Albertans want a common sense, middle of the road government."  That certainly sounds familiar.  Greg Clark has been saying this at the "Centre Together" events.  Katherine O'Neill has been saying the same at Alberta Together events.  Kerry Cundal said the same thing during the Liberal Leadership.  One of these things is not like the other; or is it?

"Gone are the days when hard right governments can find success in Alberta" Jean told Rick Bell.  Which hard right governments could he possibly be referring to?  Certainly not the former PC Party who reigned for 44 years.  Sure, Fildebrandt has put out a dog whistle for the Libertarian supporters to "roll back the nanny state".  I mean, who doesn't want open liquor in the parks? (Spoiler: Anyone's wife taking their children to a park in their hometown of Calgary and has to deal with drunken arseholes.)  Schweitzer took a page from Donald Trump and called for "Two for one" business regulations (remove two regulations for every one introduced) and promised the "biggest tax reduction in Alberta's history".  For a province that's currently 11 billion dollars in debt... I just can't.

Then there's the Saskatchewan come Ottawa native, the socially conservative Mr. Jason Kenney who has made Alberta both a national and international embarrassment for his stance on Gay Straight Alliances.  With the joyously incredulous platforms of the other leadership contenders (and one on the fence), it seems as if Jean truly could be the centrist option for the Wildrose.  The question is, would they have him?

Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The Golden Opportunity with UCP

The backroom deal-making that wasn’t supposed to happen with a Wildrose PC merger seems to be exactly what was needed to bring the parties into agreement.  Kenney had been persona non grata after the Gay-Straight Alliance media backlash in March but resurfaced in BC stumping for the Liberal party in April.  As the BC election resulted in a reduction of Liberal seats to a tie with the NDP and created a shockingly powerful Green Party swing vote, it would appear his presence did more harm than good.  One can only hope he finds similar success in the 2019 election.

Back in the public eye in Alberta, Jason Kenney's highly anticipated and subsequently disappointing non-announcement on May 5, 2017 seemed to suggest there might not be enough agreement to build a unity plan after all.  The Unity Discussion Group was formed a mere 6 weeks earlier with unity backers from the former PC party (and one person who declined to take part) and elected individuals from the Wildrose.  There were rumblings that the discussions were not going well between the parties and that it was rooted in a general mistrust of the other side.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

Fast forward to May 18 where the unlikely future colleagues announced they have found a way forward to create the United Conservative Party, or UCP.  While there may have been some hard work on behalf of the discussion group, it sounds as if it was Brian Jean who needed the final nudge. Nine of his MLAs reportedly confronted him and said they would cross the floor to join the Kenney-led PC's, making them the official opposition, unless he accepted the agreement.  

However they managed it, there is finally some movement for the two parties who would like to blend together into one slightly larger Wildrose party with Wildrose values, policies and, the big win, some former PC supporters.  If that doesn't cause you to swoon,  Alberta will be treated to yet another leadership race involving Jason Kenney this year as the parties have agreed to hold the leadership election on October 28, 2017.  

While the parties have made a small move in the “right” direction, hundreds, perhaps even thousands of current members are still going to have to vote for unity.  The former PCs require 51% of their membership to approve the agreement and the Wildrose needs 75. Add to this the simultaneous messaging of the Wildrose members being promised their party, policies and values will remain, and the former PCs are being promised they will defeat Notley's government.  So, win/win... I guess?  

There’s still hope; if Kenney has taught us anything since entering Alberta politics it's that anyone can buy a membership and vote; even (especially?) if you don’t support the party. 

We all have an idea of what would happen if they unite but what if the current or future membership did not support unity?  Kenney appeals to a faction of the Wildrose base so they could continue to bleed votes without a unity agreement. Kenney has a well-known track record of not supporting human rights for all and is an easy target on the subject.  Did I mention that anyone can buy a membership and vote for what they believe will be the best outcome for the people of this province?  Members must be registered 21 days prior to voting.  Just saying. 

War of the Roses

When Jason Kenney was elected as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, 2017, he was elected on a platform to Unite Alberta, or Conservatives, or the Right, depending whose event you attended and in which geographical location.  Since his election, we have seen the formation of a group of right-leaning PC and Wildrose members who were to tackle this business of unity.  The most recent official update stated the group was having discussions and would later update on those discussions.   It doesn't appear that much is being accomplished in that area.  Or is it?

On Sunday night, the rumour mill started running.  Word was that there were 5 sitting PC MLAs (David Rodney, Prab Gill, Ric McIver, Richard Gotfried and Mike Ellis) and 5 WRP MLAs who were going to form an independent caucus in the legislature on Monday afternoon.  I reached out to someone I thought would know and he told me my grapevine was over-excited.  As we now know, it didn't happen on Monday but word is still strong that the plan is going forward.

Credit: Global News

On Tuesday I attended the New Conservative Dinner hosted by Scott Gilmore.  Having attended a few sessions in the very recent past asking similar questions (what is important to you? how should we be moving forward? why are you unhappy with the current state of politics?) the only change was the attendees.  I've participated in discussions with Liberals, Centrists and Moderates.  I've even had lunch with a nutty Wildroser who, unfortunately, confirmed every reason why I could never support that party.

There was a mix of people at this event and that makes things interesting.  One gentleman said he didn't quite understand why these discussions were taking place right now.   Why not wait until after the federal leadership race was over?  My best guess is that it's because people are engaged right now; after the leadership race, they may pack up or disengage.  I agree that the time for these conversations is now.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of people who complained their MP didn't seem to represent them.  The majority of people in the room self-disclosed as card carrying CPC members with a show of hands when Scott asked.  The leadership race has been incredibly divisive with anti-Canadian values and anti-everything that most people realize is the new normal.  Many agreed with a statement from one woman who said "the country has evolved; the CPC has not".  And that's what many progressive conservatives are currently saying to the PC/WR party.

Evolution is not generally a Conservative strong point and that's literally a definition; conserving tradition, processes, beliefs, and so on.  Jason Kenney represents that description to a tee.  So is it any wonder that polls are suggesting an overall preference for Brian Jean to lead the united party?  In comparison, Brian Jean is more moderate than Jason Kenney can ever hope to pretend to be.  Brian Jean would have the opportunity to keep some of those centre-right leaning members.

The situation is remarkably similar to the federal party.  While Michael Chong is the favourite for the Progressive Conservatives of old, and while he is moderate enough to actually have a shot at stealing votes from Trudeau; it's unlikely he will win because "he's either first on your ballot or last".  Bernier will not be last on a PC ballot because Trost, Leitch or Alexander will take that spot (the CPC use a ranked ballot where voters place their first, second, third down to 10th pick) meaning he will likely outrank Chong by being higher up on the ballot than last.

Logically, it fails.  The majority has spoken and said they would support Jean over Kenney.  So the tidbit that was dropped off to me on Tuesday makes little sense.  In a leadership race Jean would win unless another Wildroser entered that race to split the vote; someone under the Wildrose banner but who has always been on Team Kenney.  That was the tidbit... power over people.  No surprise there.

Wildrose: Whose Side of the Wall are They Really On?

On March 29, 2017, someone from Whitecap Resources in Calgary provided a letter they'd received from Brad Wall to the Canadian Press.  That letter was an advertisement of what benefits would be awaiting Whitecap Resources should they decide to pack up their Calgary operations and relocate to Saskatchewan.  While some considered it standard poaching, others suggested it could also be a breach of current trade agreements.  

Brian Jean, Leader of the Wildrose Party

Obviously, there are those of us in Alberta who are not exactly thrilled with the idea that our neighbour is attempting to steal Alberta jobs but some of us weren't exactly Wall fans to begin with.  What about people who were Wall fans?  The ones who peppered their commentary with adulation for "Alberta's Other Premier"?  Well, they're still on his side. Why shouldn't they be? 

If Alberta-based companies pick up and move to Saskatchewan, the official opposition will have the one thing they don't have yet: evidence.  Certainly, there have been job losses in Alberta from an oil free-fall but that happened in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland as well; under a Conservative and Liberal government, respectively.  What the official opposition desperately needs is evidence but what Alberta needs is someone who has our back here at home.

Instead of defending Alberta jobs while in Saskatchewan on Mar. 31, 2017, Prasad Panda, MLA for Calgary-Foothills blamed Notley for attacking "everyone (in Alberta) with tax increases" (though he didn't mention Premier Wall's recent tax increase).  In a video posted to Facebook last week, Brian Jean says he doesn't "want to tolerate other provinces being a better place to invest than Alberta" (but apparently, he will).  Even during question period today, Derek Fildebrandt said that although he thinks Brad Wall violated the New West Partnership agreement, he wonders if the NDP didn't start the fight by imposing increased rates on imported beer. Those are just the recent comments but this anti-Alberta behaviour has been going on for months.

Contrary to this Wildrose narrative, Alberta's corporate tax structure, lack of a PST and lower personal income taxes still make it a better place to invest for businesses. The Wildrose seem to be firmly against encouraging business to stay, doing almost as good a job recommending that businesses seek greener pastures as Brad Wall. 

Brad Wall is pouring salt on the wound of a city and an economy that is still feeling the sting of low oil prices.  Is it unexpected? Hardly.  Ever since the NDP was elected, Mr. Wall has been campaigning in Alberta; especially for oil investment.

Back in June of 2016, Wall was already on his business development tour of Alberta speaking to the Calgary Petroleum Club members.  He was more subtle than he has been since but the goal was the same.  I'm all for having a hero but I think it's time the Wildrose stop cheerleading for Brad Wall and start supporting those who should really matter to a party vying for government: Albertans.

Go In Peace, PC Party

We are officially less than 12 hours away from the launch of the PC Leadership Convention and excitement is in the air!  To be clear, there's no sense of anticipation regarding the actual leadership vote as there's very little probability that Jason Kenney will not win.  If he's been truthful about the elected delegates being on his team, this is hardly even a contest. What's really exhilarating is that there will be a new race starting on March 19, 2017!  How can we be so lucky to have all of this activity in between election years?!

Strangely enough, the Leadership race has shown us what Albertans and many PC members thought about the party: they're done.  There are a few hangers on; some passionate and dedicated individuals who don't want to see their party dissolved into obscurity and I feel for them.  Ironically, the man who believes everyone has the right to die a slow painful death wants to be the one to remove the PC jugular and save it from such a fate.

The new United Conservative party will be the next big conversation piece in Alberta politics and it will be anything but dull.  Back in Nov - Dec 2016 a poll specifically asked those who favoured a United Conservative party if they would prefer a party led by Brian Jean or Jason Kenney.  Respondents chose Jean.  At that time, Brian Jean was claiming the Wildrose was not interested in joining with the PC party.  Only a mere month later, Jean announced he would step down from the Wildrose and run for leadership of that united party.

Then came a new twist.  A few days ago, another poll claimed that although Jean still held the lead in a race with Kenney he was not the front runner.  With an easy majority of votes, the clear winner to lead a United Conservative party was "I don't know", followed closely by "Someone else".  The publicly interested candidates are third and fourth... out of four possible choices.

Now that's what builds anticipation.  Who could this potential leader be?  People have suggested yet a third CPC MP alternative in Rona Ambrose but she hasn't shown any interest in the role.  Is there another former CPC MP who might be up to the task?  Would the membership even consider someone who wasn't a CPC MP?  Is there someone just biding their time until the united party is created?  The plot is so full of possible twists that whiplash becomes more than a potential side effect.

And that, my friends, will give everyone something to talk about.


D.