The New Conservative Paradise is Ontario; Up Next, Quebec?

Deirdre Mitchell-MacLean
Friday June 8, 2018

Alberta Conservatives are rejoicing in the wake of Doug Ford's election as Premier, with a majority government, in Ontario.  "Ford Nation" proved that a party could be elected with no platform and the mathematically improbable mantra of cutting taxes and increasing spending while reducing debt; music to the ears of upcoming Conservative campaigns in Alberta.  For Jason Kenney, who has been equally light on solutions but big on improbable promises, Ford's win must be especially comforting.

"The winning strategy was simply to take the angry rural conservative base that's been building... and add the established voting pool... that core group of supporters" ~ Don Guy, veteran strategist; CBC, June 7, 2018 

Jason Kenney / Facebook

It was written about Ontario but it sounds awfully familiar.  The United Conservative Party has been building this perfect storm for almost three years now and we will likely see a surge in their froth-inducing narrative over the coming months.  Anger, hate and fear: the basis of a winning strategy in the Conservative heartland.

Anger over a government trying to inch Alberta into a green economy, hatred of evolving social norms and fear of an uncertain future.  From 2015 - 17, Saskatchewan and its Premier embodied Alberta's Conservative utopia. Now, Saskatchewan has a higher unemployment rate than Alberta.  Since Brad Wall abandoned his post as Premier to seek greener pastures in Calgary, his austerity measures and failure to rejuvenate the Saskatchewan economy are Scott Moe's problem.  But hope came from Ontario.

Now the United Conservatives have the once Liberal but suddenly Conservative province of Ontario to show Albertans where the greener grass grows.  Keep in mind that only 40% of the vote went to a conservative party while the other 60% went to the Liberals, NDP and Greens.  Reminiscent, one might say, of the 2015 election that saw the NDP rise in Alberta over the conservative parties with only 41% of the vote. 

"The (Party) was humiliated by voters going from a majority government to a small handful of seats"~ email to UCP members from Jason Kenney, June 7, 2018

Doug Ford / Facebook

One should expect few major moves from Ontario's new government prior to the Alberta election in 2019 aside from cutting taxes. The Conservative coalition within Canada will want to assure voters in Alberta that what they love, social programs, education and healthcare spending without the bill, will remain in place under a provincial Conservative government.  Ontario: Alberta's new Conservative Paradise... ?

Doubtful anyone ever considered that a possibility even though Conservatism might look a little different there than it does in Alberta.  Ford's promise of one dollar beer and government mandated cheaper gas doesn't just happen on its own in a free-enterprise society, you know.  And nothing says "open for investment" like dictating prices to private companies - as any good Conservative knows.  But don't concern yourself about that; Ontario certainly didn't.

Francois Legault / Facebook

As if there wasn't enough celebrating to be had, hang on to your hats, Alberta, because the party has only just begun.  The next provincial election is on October 2 in Quebec and there's been some very interesting developments on the Conservative front there as well.  Francois Legault, leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), a 'progressive conservative'-type party, has said "a CAQ government will aim for zero equalization" in four years AND ... you probably guessed it, cut taxes.  As is becoming the norm for Conservative politics, Legault says there will be no service cuts either.

Something isn't adding up in provincial politics lately.  Alberta's Conservatives have been calling for a return to the basics in education, particularly in math.  I'm beginning to see why.

Equalization and You (Cue Matches)

When a politician wants Albertans to light their hair on fire it is easily accomplished with two little words: "equalization payments".  It's almost as if some politicians want us to keep our minds on Ottawa and forget about what's going on here at home.  Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose and Jason Kenney, current leader of the UCP, are presently blowing the dog whistle but we've heard it all before.

One of Harper's 2004 campaign promises was to return the equalization formula to a ten-province standard rather than the current five-province, middle-income standard (it was current in 2003 and remains so to this day).  The issue, generally, is that most people don't understand what equalization is and how it works.  That allows certain politicians to use that to their advantage.

An excellent paper from 2004 compared the five-province standard to a ten-province standard and showed that equalization payments would increase if Alberta was part of the equation.  To put that into free-market terms, if employee wages were based on average wages paid at company X, you don't want the CEO's wage included; you only want to use the mid-range wages.  Alberta is the CEO.

Distribution of federal expenditures, 2014

So Harper walked back that campaign promise and in 2006, Klein threatened to "not participate" in equalization.  For all of their bluster, though, provincial politicians have zero pull when it comes to the formula (unless they're sitting MPs in the federal government, as both Jason Kenney and Brian Jean were in 2006, 2009 and 2013).  The reason neither provincial politicians hoping to form government nor politicians who actually run government have any say is because the province does not write a check to Ottawa. 

This cannot be said any simpler: our federal taxes are used to pay equalization; yours, mine, residents of Quebec, Ontario, and even Atlantic Canada.

As Prime Minister Trudeau, in his less than elegant way, said while in Calgary yesterday, the federal government has been there for Alberta.  Calgary will receive $1.5 billion in federal funding for the Green Line.  The federal government also increased unemployment benefits for Albertans during the recent recession and coughed up almost a billion in 2016 to help with costs related to the Fort McMurray fire.  So even though Alberta didn't receive "equalization payments", the province, and many people in Alberta, received, and will continue to receive, federal funding when needed.

Equalization exists right in our home province as well.  Revenue from provincial and property taxes build new schools in cities and small towns around the province.  Hospitals are upgraded, roads are improved and funding from the provincial government is granted to help build new recreation centres or fund programs in rural areas that don't have the tax base to support massive infrastructure.  Sure, Calgarians might feel their taxes should fund upgrades to Strathmore's hospital or the long-term care centre in Olds rather than their Cancer centre; but probably not.

The point is, there's a reason equalization exists; to help your rural Albertan neighbours and your fellow Canadians have access to services they need.  Equalization is paid out of your taxes and the government's role is to allocate funds to ensure all Canadians, and Albertans, have a reasonably similar standard of living; and that costs money.

So, please, Alberta, stop lighting your hair on fire over equalization.  You live in one of the wealthiest provinces with some of the strongest programs and services in the country, make the highest average wages, and pay the least taxes.  Equalization isn't the reason Alberta is in debt; it's because almost 80% of Albertans don't want to see cuts to programs and services but neither are they willing to pay for them.