Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

A Progressive Dilemma

This morning Richard Starke, one of four candidates for PC leadership, announced that his plan for "unity" is to work with the Wildrose Party to beat the NDP in 2019.  This has been referred to as a "non-plan" and a "hail Mary".  Some have speculated that this plan would involve more backroom deals like the one that led to the 2014 floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs, including the leader of the party, to the PCs.  For example would certain candidates only run in certain ridings?  Keep the PC candidates out of rural areas for example?  Or would they just scratch each other's backs more once one of them became government?

In any case, people stopped talking about it entirely once Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose party, came out with his own announcement that he was also on board with uniting the parties and he would run for leader of that united conservative party.  Personally, I have little faith in Brian Jean having any chance at the leadership role simply because he's jumped onto Kenney's bandwagon.

Now Brian Jean did not say he supported Kenney.  He has also said he has his own idea for uniting the conservatives.  The problem most of us see is that not all conservatives feel at home with all other conservatives. When Lougheed became the leader of a plucky little party that almost literally brought itself back from the dead, there was a term for people who believed in progressive values and fiscal conservatism; Red Tories (which is a mix of liberal (red) and conservative).  These Red Tories still exist today and they are very likely a plentiful bunch, particularly in the urban ridings.

Thomas Lukaszuk appeared with Laurie Blakeman and Mariam Ibrahim on Dinner TV Edmonton tonight to talk politics with Courtney Theriault and he brought up an interesting point.  Very few people believe that Kenney actually managed to get the support he has been claiming from within the PC Party without bringing in some Wildrose faithful.  Lukaszuk said that Kenney is counting those individuals as proof that he has the support of the PCs... but they aren't PC supporters.  Even if Kenney manages to become leader of the party (and it certainly seems likely that he will), there are many progressive-minded conservatives who will not join him in a Wildrose party.

So where, if the proudly progressive conservative party is no more, will these voters go?  While many are pointing to the viability of the Alberta Party as a home for centrists and progressive values with fiscal responsibility considerations... I don't see it happening.

In 2012 the Wildrose party, under the skillful and inspiring leadership of Danielle Smith, was poised to actually be a very strong contender against the PCs.  Rumour has it, they could have formed government.  Except for one thing; a blog post from a candidate that claimed gay people would burn in a "lake of fire".  That story hit the media streams the week before the 2012 election and voters rushed back to the PC party, so they say.

It is my humble opinion that if a conservative party does emerge as some sort of united front, those Red Tories will turn to NDP to stop the rush of social conservatives from taking over government.  In doing so, they will neglect their likely more happy home with the Alberta party until the united conservatives no longer pose an actual threat to their way of life.  But I could be wrong.

D.