Showing posts with label PC Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PC Party. Show all posts

Monday, 3 July 2017

The Politics of Party Affiliation

In the last week there has been a lot to talk about on the political front and very little of it provided optimism for Alberta.  In BC, MLA Christy Clark, who approved the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, lost her bid to form government and the NDP's MLA John Horgan was named Premier designate on June 30, 2017.  Though an NDP government in BC would seem like a good thing for an NDP government in Alberta, there has been a difference of opinion between the two over the necessity of increasing pipeline capacity to the BC coast.

If that wasn't enough to begin to rile the Conservative troops in Alberta as they prepared to celebrate Canada's 150th birthday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered his Canada Day speech in Ottawa naming the individual provinces and territories that make up this incredible country we call Canada and somehow skipped over Alberta.  Trudeau and politically engaged individuals across the country felt the backlash before it even started.  Just remember, when conservatives make a gaffe and apologize, everyone is expected to accept the apology and move on (*Note, there were a number from Fildebrandt so I just chose one at random).

Credit: Jason Kenney's official Facebook page
In Alberta, the conservative party "leaders" (Jason Kenney and MLA Brian Jean) and shakers (MLA Derek Fildebrandt) pounced on the opportunity to rally support from the separatists and conspiracy theorists.  Alberta Liberal Leader, David Khan, responded to MLA Brian Jean saying "Canada Day is the ONE day a year when politicians should be inclusive..." (no pun intended, I'm sure).  Neither the Alberta Party Leader, MLA Greg Clark, nor Alberta Premier Rachel Notley made any mention of the omission on social media.

I once had a conversation with someone about how it was beneficial for provincial parties to have federal counterparts.  The NDP, Liberals and former PC's all had a federal likeness of the same name and the Wildrose had Reform.  Even once the latter two parties merged federally, both provincial parties can lay claim to the parentage when it suits them. While the same could also be said for the NDP and Liberals, in a province that went very blue in the federal election the provincial parties are having a rough time with their federal namesakes and even their provincial cousins.

If David Khan didn't have enough of an uphill battle in the province before (and he did), the Prime Minister has managed to be unhelpful despite additional funding provided to the province during the downturn, expedition of infrastructure funding and pipeline approval. For the Alberta NDP, the federal party delivered a stunning blow almost one year after the provincial party was elected to government by tabling, and approving further discussion of the "Leap Manifesto" for implementation into federal NDP climate policy.  More recently, MP Jagmeet Singh, a federal NDP leadership candidate, claimed he would not support the addition of any pipelines, east or west for Alberta oil. Meanwhile, the federal Conservatives elected MP Andrew Scheer, a social conservative, to lead their party into the future of yesteryear. Personally, I'm starting to think it a blessing to not have a federal counterpart at all.












Friday, 19 May 2017

The Golden Opportunity with UCP

The backroom deal-making that wasn’t supposed to happen with a Wildrose PC merger seems to be exactly what was needed to bring the parties into agreement.  Kenney had been persona non grata after the Gay-Straight Alliance media backlash in March but resurfaced in BC stumping for the Liberal party in April.  As the BC election resulted in a reduction of Liberal seats to a tie with the NDP and created a shockingly powerful Green Party swing vote, it would appear his presence did more harm than good.  One can only hope he finds similar success in the 2019 election.

Back in the public eye in Alberta, Jason Kenney's highly anticipated and subsequently disappointing non-announcement on May 5, 2017 seemed to suggest there might not be enough agreement to build a unity plan after all.  The Unity Discussion Group was formed a mere 6 weeks earlier with unity backers from the former PC party (and one person who declined to take part) and elected individuals from the Wildrose.  There were rumblings that the discussions were not going well between the parties and that it was rooted in a general mistrust of the other side.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC
Fast forward to May 18 where the unlikely future colleagues announced they have found a way forward to create the United Conservative Party, or UCP.  While there may have been some hard work on behalf of the discussion group, it sounds as if it was Brian Jean who needed the final nudge. Nine of his MLAs reportedly confronted him and said they would cross the floor to join the Kenney-led PC's, making them the official opposition, unless he accepted the agreement.  

However they managed it, there is finally some movement for the two parties who would like to blend together into one slightly larger Wildrose party with Wildrose values, policies and, the big win, some former PC supporters.  If that doesn't cause you to swoon,  Alberta will be treated to yet another leadership race involving Jason Kenney this year as the parties have agreed to hold the leadership election on October 28, 2017.  

While the parties have made a small move in the “right” direction, hundreds, perhaps even thousands of current members are still going to have to vote for unity.  The former PCs require 51% of their membership to approve the agreement and the Wildrose needs 75. Add to this the simultaneous messaging of the Wildrose members being promised their party, policies and values will remain, and the former PCs are being promised they will defeat Notley's government.  So, win/win... I guess?  

There’s still hope; if Kenney has taught us anything since entering Alberta politics it's that anyone can buy a membership and vote; even (especially?) if you don’t support the party. 

We all have an idea of what would happen if they unite but what if the current or future membership did not support unity?  Kenney appeals to a faction of the Wildrose base so they could continue to bleed votes without a unity agreement. Kenney has a well-known track record of not supporting human rights for all and is an easy target on the subject.  Did I mention that anyone can buy a membership and vote for what they believe will be the best outcome for the people of this province?  Members must be registered 21 days prior to voting.  Just saying. 

Friday, 5 May 2017

War of the Roses

When Jason Kenney was elected as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, 2017, he was elected on a platform to Unite Alberta, or Conservatives, or the Right, depending whose event you attended and in which geographical location.  Since his election, we have seen the formation of a group of right-leaning PC and Wildrose members who were to tackle this business of unity.  The most recent official update stated the group was having discussions and would later update on those discussions.   It doesn't appear that much is being accomplished in that area.  Or is it?

On Sunday night, the rumour mill started running.  Word was that there were 5 sitting PC MLAs (David Rodney, Prab Gill, Ric McIver, Richard Gotfried and Mike Ellis) and 5 WRP MLAs who were going to form an independent caucus in the legislature on Monday afternoon.  I reached out to someone I thought would know and he told me my grapevine was over-excited.  As we now know, it didn't happen on Monday but word is still strong that the plan is going forward.

Credit: Global News
On Tuesday I attended the New Conservative Dinner hosted by Scott Gilmore.  Having attended a few sessions in the very recent past asking similar questions (what is important to you? how should we be moving forward? why are you unhappy with the current state of politics?) the only change was the attendees.  I've participated in discussions with Liberals, Centrists and Moderates.  I've even had lunch with a nutty Wildroser who, unfortunately, confirmed every reason why I could never support that party.

There was a mix of people at this event and that makes things interesting.  One gentleman said he didn't quite understand why these discussions were taking place right now.   Why not wait until after the federal leadership race was over?  My best guess is that it's because people are engaged right now; after the leadership race, they may pack up or disengage.  I agree that the time for these conversations is now.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of people who complained their MP didn't seem to represent them.  The majority of people in the room self-disclosed as card carrying CPC members with a show of hands when Scott asked.  The leadership race has been incredibly divisive with anti-Canadian values and anti-everything that most people realize is the new normal.  Many agreed with a statement from one woman who said "the country has evolved; the CPC has not".  And that's what many progressive conservatives are currently saying to the PC/WR party.

Evolution is not generally a Conservative strong point and that's literally a definition; conserving tradition, processes, beliefs, and so on.  Jason Kenney represents that description to a tee.  So is it any wonder that polls are suggesting an overall preference for Brian Jean to lead the united party?  In comparison, Brian Jean is more moderate than Jason Kenney can ever hope to pretend to be.  Brian Jean would have the opportunity to keep some of those centre-right leaning members.

The situation is remarkably similar to the federal party.  While Michael Chong is the favourite for the Progressive Conservatives of old, and while he is moderate enough to actually have a shot at stealing votes from Trudeau; it's unlikely he will win because "he's either first on your ballot or last".  Bernier will not be last on a PC ballot because Trost, Leitch or Alexander will take that spot (the CPC use a ranked ballot where voters place their first, second, third down to 10th pick) meaning he will likely outrank Chong by being higher up on the ballot than last.

Logically, it fails.  The majority has spoken and said they would support Jean over Kenney.  So the tidbit that was dropped off to me on Tuesday makes little sense.  In a leadership race Jean would win unless another Wildroser entered that race to split the vote; someone under the Wildrose banner but who has always been on Team Kenney.  That was the tidbit... power over people.  No surprise there.

Friday, 24 March 2017

Who Would Give up Their Seat for Jason Kenney?

Will Jason Kenney remain unemployed as PC leader, or will he be fortuitous enough to discover a suddenly vacated riding to run in?  At this moment, we have no vacant ridings in Alberta so if he wants a seat, someone will have to give it up for him.  While there is obviously strong support for Kenney from the Wildrose Camp, I expect it would have far better optics to see a PC MLA to step down.

Global News Photos
The list of current PC MLAs is conveniently short: Wayne Drysdale, Mike Ellis, Prab Gill, Rick Fraser, Ric McIver, Richard Starke, Dave Rodney and Richard Gotfried.  Since Wayne Drysdale and Richard Starke are MLAs outside of Calgary, I highly doubt it will be one of them so we can reduce the possible candidates to six.  Prab Gill was the last MLA elected and he replaced the dearly departed Manmeet Bhullar.  I'm going to remove him as well but not because he was the last one elected; I'll come back to that.  Now we have five.

Ric McIver, as interim leader, had not publicly backed a candidate but he did tweet out a picture of himself and former PC member and Kenney advisor, Alan Hallman, watching the Medicine Hat leadership debate together. The assumption is that he favours Kenney.  Rick Fraser hasn't declared who has his support for the leadership but he has been very quiet both in and out of the legislature.   Dave Rodney, Richard Gotfried, and Mike Ellis have all publicly endorsed Jason Kenney.

Dave Rodney, Calgary-Lougheed was first elected in 2004 and is one of the two longest-serving MLAs in the PC Party right now.  Rick Fraser,Calgary-Southeast, and Ric McIver, Calgary Hays, were both elected in 2012. Mike Ellis, Calgary-West, was elected in 2014 and Richard Gotfried, Calgary Fish Creek, was elected in 2015.  In my opinion, any one of these MLAs would give up their seat for Jason Kenney but in this case, favourability lies in the numbers.

If you paid attention to the number of votes in 2015 (or since), you would notice that pretty much everyone in urban centres had a tight race.  Without bogging this down further, the following MLA's won their ridings by the following number of votes: Gotfried, 129, Fraser 305, Gill, 313, Rodney, 502, McIver 1,533 and Ellis 3,372.

The main reason I discount Gill is because they just had a by-election in Calgary-Greenway in 2016 and the turnout was a dismal 28%.  Gill ended up with 2,292 votes to WRP's 1979, Liberal's 1,849 and the NDP's 1,699.  Say what you will about coming in fourth place but a margin of 593 votes between the first and fourth place candidate is not a cushion I think Kenney would be comfortable with.  Now I don't honestly believe that Kenney is actually using a 1+1=2 formula to figure out where he has the best chance of winning because that's not statistically viable and he, or someone he pays, knows that.

Based on the numbers, Ellis had the strongest margin of support of any of the current MLAs.  He was also the first sitting MLA to endorse Kenney on September 16, 2016.  Most interestingly, Ellis mentioned in his endorsement that Kenney "has always been a leader in our community" (emphasis mine).

Even though Gotfried is the only PC MLA within Kenney's old federal riding of Calgary-Midnapore, Gotfried won by the least amount. That seat had previously belonged to Heather Forsyth, the former PC who crossed over to Wildrose in 2010.  She barely won her seat in 2012 with 38 more votes than the PC candidate.  It's a risk I wouldn't see Kenney taking.

My number one pick, therefore, between the current PC MLA's who would be most likely to give up his seat for Jason Kenney is Mike Ellis.

Note: I've heard through the grapevine that Kenney will not be vying for a seat until 2019.  My thought on that is either he doesn't trust his ability to win until there's a united conservative party for him to run under or he's going to take advantage of being "unemployed" while campaigning for the united party.  Or maybe it's both.

Tuesday, 21 March 2017

The Final PC Alberta Convention (with Buttons)

I collected every button I could find because I felt this would be the last time they would be made.  In retrospect, I should have taken extras.  I went into the convention without a horse in the race; I was only there as an observer, after all.  I also went to talk politics because I figured there would be one or two people around who would be into that.


Upon my arrival, I went to each of the candidate tables and picked up some swag (buttons) and each one went into my purse.  I knew the Kenney supporters would likely be the majority of attendees and because I love to talk politics, I wanted to have that opportunity by not wearing my views like scarlet letters.  I talked with someone I'd known from another career.  I talked with a young-ish couple who turned out to be Kenney supporters.  I decided I would introduce myself to people I recognized from Twitter and meet some progressives to round out the experience. 

As it turned out, my first instinct about not proclaiming my views with visual aids was correct.  My new acquaintances from Red Deer and I were getting along swimmingly until they saw my pin from Duncan Kinney (which I loved so I put on as soon as he gave it to me and forgot I was wearing it).  The one noticed it and I saw her mouth go "OH".  I ignored that and put my button back into my purse as we headed over to Kenney's party.  The room was huge, the music was loud, the lights were low and it kind of felt like it was the end of the night after a wedding.  I had to make some calls and I wanted to check out the other parties as well so I bailed.

I went up to Byron Nelson's suite and I could hear from the elevators that there were jovial people about.  The atmosphere was extremely upbeat and I talked with a few people and had a beer.  Slight digression here because it needs to be said: domestic drinks were $9 and premiums were $11.  Byron was giving out free beer.  I had a Heineken.  Anyway, I talked with some people, met Byron, got a card or two and made a new acquaintance who was heading to Richard Starke's party.  The atmosphere at Byron's party was super but the room was way too small and all those people gave it a muggy, hot feeling that I was completely overdressed for. 

We arrived at Richard Starke's party and that was a happening place.  The lights were on, there was seating and food (and $9 + drinks) and people were in a great mood.  I also found one of my Twitter buds and we talked politics.  At one point, a guy wearing a Sewer Rat button (I got one later) showed up and started talking with us.  He was happily complaining about the carbon tax and then moved on to talk about how it's a nice idea to go green energy and all "but how are they going to pay for it?!" My cohort said "the carbon tax" just as I coughed out "carbon tax" and we all had a great laugh. This was what I came for: people talking politics without having a conniption.

Kenney supporters were milling about, there were MLAs and campaign gurus and tonnes of volunteers and we all got to talk politics and have some laughs.  Looking back, those pre-vote parties were a celebration of the hard work that had gone into the campaigns.  A feeling of optimism was in the air; anything was possible tomorrow.  Sort of.

Some of us who pay attention to numbers thought the vote would go a certain way.  I have to admit that after I spent time with people from the Starke party, I realized that not everyone thought the outcome was going to be what it was.  Talking with one of the people from Starke's campaign, I asked if there were plans for a post-vote get-together.  She seemed unsure of what I might be referring to and I showed her the invite I had from Duncan for a "wake" that was scheduled at 7:00 the next night. What happened next was when it finally hit me that my disassociation to the outcome had caused me to neglect something very important; the people for whom the outcome really did matter.  She started to cry.  Needless to say, I felt horrible.  And humbled.

In the morning I met up with my new pal from the night before.  The campaigns were busy working on the candidate speeches and I was pretty excited for those.  I had missed them the night before because registration was rather disastrous and I was in line while they were taking place.  I found myself a seat in between a Kenney supporter and two Starke supporters.

The speeches were on point; their last effort at influencing the voters.  Byron still believed in the PC party and respected his fellow candidates.  Starke outlined the numerous embarrassing moments for the Wildrose.  Is that what people wanted from their elected officials, he asked, because that's what they were heading into with a united party.  As he started to list off the bozo eruptions, loud boos came from the back of the room. At first I wasn't sure if they were booing the acts themselves or the fact that he mentioned them.  It turned out to be the latter as, when I finally located the sound, it was coming from a large group holding Kenney signs.


My Starke companions were an elderly couple who scoffed frequently during Kenney's speech.  On the other side of me, the Kenney supporters were just as frequently getting up to clap.  When Kenney spoke again about the success of the united federal party one woman yelled out "but you lost that election!" Not that it matters, apparently.

We had three and a half hours to wait for the voting to take place and the votes to be counted. The candidates were busy with media interviews and I had plenty of time to talk to people.  I discovered there was another layer to the vote that I hadn't really considered: the plan.  Kenney had strong support, obviously, and people who actually want to see him as the leader of the next conservative party.  But one gentleman who left the PC's for the Wildrose a couple of years ago had an interesting story.  He said he was undecided about the leadership of the new party.

Though he was partial to Brian Jean, he felt Jean didn't utilize the media to the full extent he should.  As a delegate, he said he spoke to Kenney and Starke a number of times trying to gauge which would be a better choice for what he was interested in.  Kenney, he said, had explained his unity plan in such a way that this delegate felt it would be most successful.  For starters, the PCs had enough money to pay off the party debt.  According to what he understood, the plan is to fold the PC party and have the sitting MLAs move into the Wildrose.  The Wildrose will then be renamed and rebranded.

I spoke with a number of people while we were waiting for the voting booths to close.  More than one of those people spoke with more passion about the plan put forward than the candidates.  More than one of them said that's what they had voted for.  Starke's plan relegated Wildrose to perpetual opposition and they didn't think Wildrose would go for that.   A vote for Kenney's plan, they said, was not necessarily a vote for Kenney.  Interestingly, there was a lot of talk about the possibility of a "white knight" entering the united party leadership race.

After the vote tally was announced, I saw the couple of Starke supporters I'd sat next to that morning.  They were looking quite dejected and I decided to go tell them what I'd learned from people I'd talked to.  When I told them some were more interested in the plan than the candidate they seemed relieved. She looked up at her husband with what I can only describe as surprised optimism.  They thanked me for telling them and said it gave them some hope.

 Someone asked me why I even cared about this and I decided the reason was fairness.  The Nelson and Starke supporters were trying to keep their party and someone who didn't care about their party in the first place saw an opportunity to force them to give it up.  Yes, this is politics.  The only way forward for a genuine conservative party is to obliterate the baggage from the PC Party and the Wildrose Party.  While it wasn't all bad, a party with no history has no baggage; but I doubt that will last very long.






Friday, 17 March 2017

Go In Peace, PC Party

We are officially less than 12 hours away from the launch of the PC Leadership Convention and excitement is in the air!  To be clear, there's no sense of anticipation regarding the actual leadership vote as there's very little probability that Jason Kenney will not win.  If he's been truthful about the elected delegates being on his team, this is hardly even a contest. What's really exhilarating is that there will be a new race starting on March 19, 2017!  How can we be so lucky to have all of this activity in between election years?!

Strangely enough, the Leadership race has shown us what Albertans and many PC members thought about the party: they're done.  There are a few hangers on; some passionate and dedicated individuals who don't want to see their party dissolved into obscurity and I feel for them.  Ironically, the man who believes everyone has the right to die a slow painful death wants to be the one to remove the PC jugular and save it from such a fate.

The new United Conservative party will be the next big conversation piece in Alberta politics and it will be anything but dull.  Back in Nov - Dec 2016 a poll specifically asked those who favoured a United Conservative party if they would prefer a party led by Brian Jean or Jason Kenney.  Respondents chose Jean.  At that time, Brian Jean was claiming the Wildrose was not interested in joining with the PC party.  Only a mere month later, Jean announced he would step down from the Wildrose and run for leadership of that united party.

Then came a new twist.  A few days ago, another poll claimed that although Jean still held the lead in a race with Kenney he was not the front runner.  With an easy majority of votes, the clear winner to lead a United Conservative party was "I don't know", followed closely by "Someone else".  The publicly interested candidates are third and fourth... out of four possible choices.

Now that's what builds anticipation.  Who could this potential leader be?  People have suggested yet a third CPC MP alternative in Rona Ambrose but she hasn't shown any interest in the role.  Is there another former CPC MP who might be up to the task?  Would the membership even consider someone who wasn't a CPC MP?  Is there someone just biding their time until the united party is created?  The plot is so full of possible twists that whiplash becomes more than a potential side effect.

And that, my friends, will give everyone something to talk about.


D.



Tuesday, 7 March 2017

Zero Days Without Incident

It was a simple task. Send out an email invite to the screening of a movie that is controversial enough to get their name in the paper and have everyone talking about them. Ideally, they were probably hoping for a censorship backlash that could have resulted in a "free speech" fight with the University. 

That's what could have happened when they hit "send" but it's not what happened. Instead, the Wildrose faction of University of Calgary students found themselves in the centre of another debate; Women's Equality.  While there are numerous ways to get your name in the paper, this is not the favoured route, even for the Wildrose. However, as Derek Fildebrandt so eloquently stated "Hyper-sensitive, politically correct, victim as virtue culture is creating a leadership class of wimps." (Nov 12, 2016).  Though Fildebrandt insists he is not a social conservative, it's the company you keep.

I mean, in 2012 when the Wildrose did not form government after so many polls said they would, many pointed to the "Lake of Fire" story and claimed it contributed to their loss.  In April of 2015, Rick Strankman, MLA for Drumheller-Stettler took some heat for staying out of the kitchen when a "volunteer" circulated an invitation asking attendees to "Bring Your Wife's Pie".

Add to this the new Maxime Bernier meme featuring double-downer Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt and referencing the "red pill" which he circulated yesterday and you have a full-blown blow back. Especially when the tweeter of said meme claims to have no knowledge of the more modern interpretation of "red pill". If a reader is so inclined, they can google it - I won't link to such garbage.

For a political party that has seen their fair (or unfair, if you swing that way) share of controversy since becoming the Wildrose, this doesn't help.  Personally, I don't see this doing any harm to their brand.  This is, after all, their brand.

And if Jason Kenney is successful in winning the PC leadership, dissolving the PC party, getting Wildrose to agree to dissolve their party, and creating a new conservative party, people will forget the Wildrose Party of Alberta ever existed. Which, really, is nothing but beneficial for them in a modern world.

Thursday, 9 February 2017

A Telephone Town Hall with Jason Kenney

On February 8, 2017 I tuned in for a telephone town hall with Jason Kenney.  I'd never participated in one before and I figured it might be interesting.  I was not disappointed.

I wrote previously about the Unite Alberta get-together in Calgary back in January and I attempted to give a semi-unbiased recounting of that event.  One story, which I tried valiantly to corroborate, but could not, involved a 12 year old autistic girl from Grande Prairie who was put into counselling after she expressed doubt about her gender.  Not only, Kenney said, was she put into counselling, but she was given a boy's name and treated as a boy at school; all without telling the parents.  I bring this up now because this time he told us she was from Calgary.  That's how the town hall began.

One caller kept referring to "severely normal Albertans" and wanted to ensure "Martha and Henry" could have a say in the new party.  Kenney reiterated another story from January about how he "gave up his only income and hit the road in his pickup truck".  This story is becoming easier for him to tell even though it's not true.  Most people (though apparently not his supporters) recall that he did not resign his seat as MP until the end of September, almost a full three months after he began campaigning.  But, whatevs, I'm sure.

He told us that Brian Jean is willing to talk merger.  If Kenney is given a mandate, he wants to put Alberta first.  He claims he wants no pre-conditions on unification other than members choose.  Then he brought up the most recent statement from Brian Jean that Mr. Jean wants the party to unite under the legal framework of the Wildrose.  Kenney stated that he had never considered the possibility that one party would capitulate to the other.  He expects the parties to respect both sides, that they come together as equals and in good faith, "just create a new party and make a fresh start".

Another caller said that she believed the parties must amalgamate to have any hope of beating the NDP.  Kenney told her that that's why he was doing this; it was why he gave up his only income.  He believes the NDP will do irreparable damage to free-enterprise if they are given another term.

The carbon tax was brought up again and he promised the repeal of the carbon tax would be Bill1 if they win in 2019.  Again he brought up the "U of A professor" and I can't help but wonder why he won't say Andrew Leach's name.  Kenney name-drops all the time... I find it odd that he won't name Andrew.

There was a question about Bill 10 and parental choice.  To his credit, Kenney told the caller that there was unanimous support for Bill 10 from both Wildrose and PCs in the legislature.  In his mind, Bill 10 itself was settled.  He would, though, look into how the Bill was being implemented in schools as he did not like how the NDP was doing it.

The next caller had a question about the level of PC debt and whether that debt would be a deterrent to the Wildrose.  Kenney admitted that the Wildrose have much higher donations than the PC party but that between the PC party general and its constituency associations, there was enough to pay off the debt.  Kenney said he was not concerned about losing funds through a merger because the PC's are not raising enough money.  While the PC's are raising around $10,000 per month, the Wildrose have been raising about $100,000.  He mentioned that his campaign had raised more than both of them (the number I heard was $630,000+/- from October 2016 to December 2016 though he did not name a number tonight). Then he went way out: "The CPC raised $7,000,000 last year; way more than the PC's and Wildrose combined"... as if there's some natural comparison between a national party and a provincial party in terms of fundraising capabilities.

The following caller asked about the progressives in the PC party.  "The right will unite" he said, "but how do we win progressives?"  Kenney told him that he wants to build a big, broad, tolerant party.  He says he's never called it "unite the right".  There were successful coalitions by Lougheed and Klein.  He said the united party will tolerate a certain degree of difference but that it will be free-enterprise.  "You cannot redistribute wealth that hasn't been created."  He's actually said this a couple of times now and I wasn't sure what to make of it.  It's acceptable to redistribute wealth in a good economy but not a bad one?  Redistribution of wealth is okay for conservatives but not for anyone else?  .....

The final question was regarding the merged/united party.  "Will we select either PC or Wildrose policies after they're forged into one party?"  Kenney said that he wants the PC party and the Wildrose to negotiate.  It should be voted upon by a clear majority of Wildrose members.  It would be a fresh start and a new beginning.  He told those on the phone to also purchase a Wildrose membership so they could have a say.  It's a strange day in politics, I think.

D.

Thursday, 2 February 2017

Nothing has Changed for Wildrose

It was standing room only at a crowded town hall at the Strathmore Legion planned by the local MLA Derek Fildebrandt. "How many of you are PC members?" He asked.  One lone gentleman raised his hand.  The topic of this meeting was uniting the Conservative vote and it would probably help if other conservatives would attend.  Sometimes though, an echo chamber is all you need.

"I have a lot of respect for Conservatives in the PC Party" he said.  "There are some very good members who are strong Conservatives but the PC Party was hijacked by a faction of liberals who are scared they're going to have to go back to the liberal party."  The crowd chuckled so this might have been a joke.  He told a story about  walking to the legislature with Sandra Jansen and said she asked him if there would be room for liberal-minded people in a united conservative party.  He beat about the bush and told the crowd that any person who is for free enterprise is welcome in a united conservative party.

The people who attended were overwhelmingly in agreement that the conservatives should unite (with the exception of the aforementioned PC member).  Recall that this town hall took place in a rural riding, most of which, across the province, are stark conservative ridings and currently represented by a Wildrose MLA.  In these areas, they see the issue for what it is; the cities are more liberal than they are and their party won't form government without the cities.  Why do they want a united conservative party?  Because they don't have to give anything up.

The PC party has had success in the cities as well as the rural areas.  You don't get 44 years of one-party rule without assistance from the largest cities in the province.  To rural Wildrose supporters, there's only one way to win government; remove the progressive conservative faction.  When this was brought up by an audience member, Fildebrandt referred to the federal vote.  "More than 60% of voters chose the Conservative party federally".  Some, though, say that people vote for different things at different levels of government.

Does a united conservative party have a chance to beat out the NDP in 2019?   Of course they do, but progressive conservatives are still thinking about what this means for them.  They didn't support the Wildrose in the last election and some have no intention of supporting them in the next one.

Do the Wildrose want to take over the PC party?  Certainly.  Remove the vote split, one and one equals two and all that.  Looking at both sides of the debate, it's definitely not a worry for the Wildrose supporters; they're strong and they're united.  For them, nothing has changed.

Thursday, 26 January 2017

A Progressive Dilemma

This morning Richard Starke, one of four candidates for PC leadership, announced that his plan for "unity" is to work with the Wildrose Party to beat the NDP in 2019.  This has been referred to as a "non-plan" and a "hail Mary".  Some have speculated that this plan would involve more backroom deals like the one that led to the 2014 floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs, including the leader of the party, to the PCs.  For example would certain candidates only run in certain ridings?  Keep the PC candidates out of rural areas for example?  Or would they just scratch each other's backs more once one of them became government?

In any case, people stopped talking about it entirely once Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose party, came out with his own announcement that he was also on board with uniting the parties and he would run for leader of that united conservative party.  Personally, I have little faith in Brian Jean having any chance at the leadership role simply because he's jumped onto Kenney's bandwagon.

Now Brian Jean did not say he supported Kenney.  He has also said he has his own idea for uniting the conservatives.  The problem most of us see is that not all conservatives feel at home with all other conservatives. When Lougheed became the leader of a plucky little party that almost literally brought itself back from the dead, there was a term for people who believed in progressive values and fiscal conservatism; Red Tories (which is a mix of liberal (red) and conservative).  These Red Tories still exist today and they are very likely a plentiful bunch, particularly in the urban ridings.

Thomas Lukaszuk appeared with Laurie Blakeman and Mariam Ibrahim on Dinner TV Edmonton tonight to talk politics with Courtney Theriault and he brought up an interesting point.  Very few people believe that Kenney actually managed to get the support he has been claiming from within the PC Party without bringing in some Wildrose faithful.  Lukaszuk said that Kenney is counting those individuals as proof that he has the support of the PCs... but they aren't PC supporters.  Even if Kenney manages to become leader of the party (and it certainly seems likely that he will), there are many progressive-minded conservatives who will not join him in a Wildrose party.

So where, if the proudly progressive conservative party is no more, will these voters go?  While many are pointing to the viability of the Alberta Party as a home for centrists and progressive values with fiscal responsibility considerations... I don't see it happening.

In 2012 the Wildrose party, under the skillful and inspiring leadership of Danielle Smith, was poised to actually be a very strong contender against the PCs.  Rumour has it, they could have formed government.  Except for one thing; a blog post from a candidate that claimed gay people would burn in a "lake of fire".  That story hit the media streams the week before the 2012 election and voters rushed back to the PC party, so they say.

It is my humble opinion that if a conservative party does emerge as some sort of united front, those Red Tories will turn to NDP to stop the rush of social conservatives from taking over government.  In doing so, they will neglect their likely more happy home with the Alberta party until the united conservatives no longer pose an actual threat to their way of life.  But I could be wrong.

D.

Monday, 23 January 2017

Jason Kenney Town Hall, 01-19-2017 (the 2500 word version)

As part of Jason Kenney's Unite Alberta Tour/Progressive Conservative Leadership Campaign, he arranged numerous events around the province.  This event was on January 19, 2017 in Calgary.

Dave Rodney spoke first to reiterate his endorsement of Jason Kenney for leader of the PC party.  “This has been done before,” he began, “Lougheed united the right and the centre right and it is time to unite Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose Party.  The NDP are destroying the Albertan way of life” he declared, though his emotion was lost in the weak audio connection, “we need to bring back the Alberta Advantage… and unite with Jason Kenney!”  This strong sentiment brought an awkward attempt at a standing ovation which did not make it to the back half of the room. 

When Jason Kenney took the stage, he talked about the last two weeks and how 900 people had shown up at the previous town hall in Calgary.  “We want our province back” he said as forcefully as the poor audio would allow.  “We are united in a belief in hard work and personal responsibility; Albertans believe in the creative power of free enterprise;  an idea that you work hard and achieve some of your dreams to pass it on for a better way of life.  Alberta has some of the most compassionate people in this country and the NDP doesn’t understand that, doesn’t understand Albertans, or our way of life.  We need to stand up together, for our Alberta.”

He then digressed into the personal stories of Albertans from his summer pre-campaign campaigning across the province, beginning with a half-truth about how he started that.  “A few months ago” he stated, “I left my job as a federal MP, my only income, to begin a campaign for unity across the province.  I started a movement in Alberta; revived hope and optimism.”  Perhaps his memory is a little fuzzy with these details.  He did resign on September 20, 2016 but his provincial tour began in July of 2016.  For collecting a federal pay cheque while he campaigned for a new job, Kenney took heat from Albertans, Conservatives and the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, his only job prior to becoming a federal MP.

“Albertans are uniting” he claimed, and he would know because he was out there.  He told us that “as the NDP came to office, Albertans were leaving for BC and Saskatchewan" He talked about the people he’d met, most of whom were the ages of those in the room (I had the average age of autonomous attendees estimated at about 57 years).  The 54 year old woman who lost her job and was working in a role she would have had when she was in her 20’s.  The crowd was appropriately affected, murmuring and shaking their heads.   The ‘young couple’ from Calgary who had owned a business for 32 years and who “survived the NEP but couldn’t survive the NDP”.  He chuckled and there was more head shaking; they remember.  I don't. 

There was a 17 year old boy from Hardisty who now realized that “politics has consequences” but was clueless how government or elections worked.  He was running up to Jason at a gas station yelling “Hey! Are you that Kenney guy?!” (because he’s 17 and that’s how kids talk?) And he asked Jason how quickly he would be in government to stop the NDP.  Jason had to explain that he couldn’t do it right away and this young man replied “why, why will it take so long?” This young man told Jason that his father had lost his job in the oil patch and couldn’t find work.  As a result, this young boy was supporting his parents and his four siblings.  Jason called him an oilfield worker later on in the story but I can’t say whether he mixed up the father and the son or if the 17 year old was also an oilfield worker.

“Alberta has gone so far off track” he lamented, “we’ve gotten through before but this time it’s different.  This NDP government is determined to make a bad decision worse. They have no mandate to make everything more expensive. Moms and dads, who lost their jobs or have 70% lower income, these are the people taxes will hit the hardest.”  As to the environmental gain; “there is none” he told the crowd.  Without naming him, Kenney spoke of a University of Alberta professor's (Andrew Leach) comment that in order to make a difference, carbon would have to be taxed at $200 per tonne rather than $30 per tonne. 

The audio was finally fixed and we could hear much better. “We are the only major oil and gas producing country in the world to have a carbon tax” he told the crowd, “we want to vote on the carbon tax!”  Further regulations, like Bill 6, are also ruining people in Alberta.  He spoke of a family from Grande Prairie who “sold all their heads and the farm” because of the “administrative work” imposed on them by the NDP[i].


Kenney claimed “the NDP wants to bring Ontario’s Environmental Plan to Alberta” and nodded to a Fraser Institute study as evidence; he didn’t identify which study, just “a” study.  “Does this government care,” he asked the crowd “they have no regard for the people, they only have their ideology.”  And the crowd mumbled in agreement.  “There are 2300 new coal plants being built around the world.  We need to attract industries to Alberta but these industries are reliant on power."  Those industries will not come here, he told us, and that will create less diversity in our economy, not more.

He then spoke about Trudeau’s latest gaffe of saying that the oilsands need to be phased out.  Of course, Harper said the same thing a few years ago but he elaborated and Trudeau did not; therefore the latter is nefarious while the former is... a conservative.  Kenney claimed the demand for oil was to exceed 4 trillion dollars over the next few years and suggested Trudeau was forcing Alberta to not be a major contributor.  The crowd liked it.

“We all hope some innovation comes along someday that will reduce our dependency on fossil fuels” he surprised me by saying “but until that day, we need a premier who will stand up to the Prime Minister; like the person everyone wishes was Alberta’s premier, Brad Wall.”  This statement received some cheers.  Of course, they want Brad Wall as a mascot but no Albertan wants his sales tax or higher income taxes or crumbling roads. 

Next, Kenney moved on to education and the audience was ripe.  “This government has proposed a radical review” he said sadly “with a goal to turn students into ‘effective agents of change’” (emphasis his) and the crowd booed. “We know what that means, don’t we?” He eyed the crowd and spoke the dreaded word.... “Activism”… and people shook their heads and the sound of muffled discontent filled the room[ii] .  “They’re working on a secret curriculum” he pronounced “one that doesn’t involve moms and dads.  Our kids need education, not pedagogical fads.”  He believes the NDP has “caused damage to the structure of the economy and the political culture, not just in Alberta, but Canada”.  As evidence, he introduced the next topic; Saskatchewan in 1944.

“Go Riders!” He shouted and a few people cheered but most were.. shocked?  After all, the town hall was being held in Calgary, directly across the street from McMahon Stadium. “Go Stampeders!” A woman called back from my side of the room and the crowd loudly agreed.   The mood was lighter afterwards and he asked how many were “displaced” Saskatchewanians like himself.  There were a few, certainly, but not enough to make him feel like he was talking to a room full of sympathizers.

“In 1944, Saskatchewan’s population was over a million and Alberta’s was half that, now Alberta is over 4 million and Saskatchewan has less than a million” he began  “The population decreased when the CCF in Saskatchewan raised taxes and chased away investors.  Oil companies picked up as one and moved everything to Calgary.” [iii] It was after the province was able to “unite through the Saskatchewan Party” (2007) that the economy turned around he claims. [iv]  “Drilling is down in Alberta and unemployment is up”[v] in comparison to Saskatchewan, “like Brad Wall said, this is no time for a six decade experiment with the NDP. We need to get our Alberta back.”

There are divisions between the parties he said, and he has “great respect for Lougheed, Klein and the Alberta Advantage… but you have to admit the PC party got off course.  There was a word to describe the PC party and that was ‘arrogant’.  Half of the PC supporters went to the Wildrose party” he claimed.  And then there was some genuine excitement. 

A gentleman stood up and started to yelling “Don’t you put words in my mouth! I’m a Wildrose supporter … don’t say things about the Wildrose!”  I confess to missing exactly what set him off as I was writing when I realized there was a disruption.  The crowd wasn’t having it.  “Sit down! No one asked you! Go home!” they yelled.  The anger was swift and loud and, frankly, a little unnerving.  The gentleman was escorted away even though Kenney invited him to ask his questions after the speech.

Kenney picked up where he’d left off although it was obvious the crowd was a little distracted; a din was making it difficult to hear him for a few minutes.  “If there is not a united party in 2019, the NDP wins” he said, “if we can do it federally, we can do it provincially to save Alberta… uniting was infinitely harder to do federally, but we did it in 10 months and won the next three elections”[vi] .  “The Wildrose party said it was open to a merger; it was the PC Party that showed no interest”[vii]. 

He finished off by saying that he “will support any other leader” the membership decides to elect.  People need to show “humility, park their egos, avoid labels and emotions and focus on the future”.   The crowd clapped; some stood, many did not, and people began to line up for questions.

1. The first gentleman up to the microphone for a question was a young man who had lost his job.  He asked Kenney what he would do to restore the Alberta Advantage.  Kenney replied that he would “put Alberta first and renew Alberta as a beacon of opportunity”.

2. The second gentleman was wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat.  He asked how Kenney would fix what the NDP has done in the province.  “I will reverse taxes and bureaucracy; when I defeat the NDP I will extend the legislature into the summer to repeal the regressive policies.  Bill 1 will repeal the carbon tax and other pieces of legislation and regulation. Once we have united, we’ll be able to slow down the NDP.  Their preferred path to power is that we remain divided so they only have to compete for 35% of the vote.  If we end the vote split they will have to compete for 40-45%.   We need to slow down the damage they are doing.”

3.  What will you do about education and the social engineering in our schools? “I respect parental rights and their authority in education.  They have a prior right to direct the education of their children.  The NDP picks and chooses; school choice respects rights of parents.  The NDP wants to undermine these rights and undo our tradition of pluralism in education.”

4. Is the little group of MLAs in Edmonton with you?  “Four out of the six MLAs available to endorse me have done so.”

5. Alberta has changed over the past 30 years.  Do you have a more centrist message for those who are not far right?  “It will be a big tent party full of tolerant, diverse individuals.  I’ve never used the term ‘Unite the Right’.  A free-enterprise party will create wealth; family is most important; respect for educational choice. The party will be an unhyphenated party like what Stephen Harper created.   A coalition with different views; what unites you, not what divides you.  That’s what Steph- that’s what Lougheed did.”

6.  What policies will you adopt from the Wildrose party? “There was too much top-down in the PC party of the past.  The membership will tell us what they want.  I don’t want to put my own opinions out there.  We need to focus on democratic reform and unity.”

7. Regarding oil development, Lougheed wanted to protect the environment and the water and Klein was a proponent of nuclear energy.  Where do you stand on that? “I stand for environmental protection and prudent, responsible and affordable measures on greenhouse gases but not at a cost.  Other jurisdictions are not doing it.  The rest of the world is investing in 2300 coal fired plants.  We should focus on technology, research and development like Brad Wall.  We don’t expel enough greenhouse gases; bring on the technology.”

8. Is it your goal to minimize the progressive wing? “The party will be inclusive and broad, a party of free enterprise supporters. When we united the Conservative Party of Canada, we lost a marginal amount of support from the extreme sides.  Some Progressive Conservatives will find they’re more comfortable with the NDP, right? (Laughter). The majority, though, will stay.  If I get a mandate on March 18, some will leave and they’ll get a lot of press, but the 20-30,000 that stay will get no press.”

9.  I support your platform.  I was a teacher for 30 years and a high school principal.  On the subject of parental rights, I believe parents are responsible as first educators in their child’s life and there is a role for politicians to ensure a place for all kids.  I want to ask about the act for safe and caring schools for kids, Bill 10.  Will a united conservative party under your leadership ensure GSA’s are upheld? “Yes” Will a united conservative party under your leadership balance between parents and politicians? “I do not believe a politician should be involved in that.” Will a united conservative party under your leadership promote socially progressive ideas? “Yes. For example, while I was a member of the federal party, I supported tax cuts, Guaranteed Income Supplement and the Child and Family Benefits.  A compassionate conservative party can create wealth; it creates wealth to help those and need.”

He told a story about an autistic child in Grande Prairie who, after learning about gender, became confused about her identity; gender dysphasia, he called it.  This child enlisted assistance from the school and was being treated as a boy and even being called a boy’s name while at school.   The parents were not informed of this.  (After an hour and a half of google searches, I could find nothing to corroborate this story; if you find anything, please share and I will update with a reference).

10.  Kids are getting a $100 cheque in the mail and they think it’s “cool”.  Why would they vote for you?  “Because they’ll be mugged by economic reality.  It’s the false promise of the NDP; they create a base of voters who think the NDP is okay.”

11.  Hi, I’m nine years old and I’m in grade 4.  My teacher told me that the oil sands are bad (shocked crowd) I went home and talked to my parents and they told me the oil sands are good and that they give people jobs.  (Loud applause) How…. how will you convince people like my friends? We all trust my teacher.  (More loud applause and compliments from Kenney on her intelligence and bravery).  “We should have teachers with no bias who will let you figure out what’s right and wrong.  We need to get politics out of the classroom.”

12. I’m her mother (to applause). I just want to say that you have to say no to brainwashing.  You need to instill your own values in your kids.

Michelle Rempel was invited to the podium next and she didn’t seem to have the room’s attention.  Many people were leaving and it was difficult to focus on her.  She didn’t manage to rile up the crowd at all and then she was gone.

The woman beside me asked me if what the young girl said had upset me.  I said it looked like a shameless plant and I was disgusted.  She agreed it was probably planted.  We talked a bit about sharing values with your children and talking to them about what they learn in school.  They were pleasant, she and her husband and their adult daughter.  They were Mormons he said, "so we're very conservative."  They were not sure if they supported this path forward yet and that’s why they’d attended tonight.  They hadn’t heard enough to make a decision.   




[ii] The quote “effective agents of change” can be found in a competency model for Alberta Education; “CULTURAL AND GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP involves actively engaging with cultural, environmental, political or economic systems. Students acknowledge First Nations, Métis, Inuit, Francophone or other perspectives when taking action on local or global issues. They advocate for the dignity and well-being of individuals and communities. Students value equity and diversity, and believe in their capacity to make a difference”; an indicator of which is “valuing equity and diversity and believing in the capacity to make a difference” followed by “Examples: • I acknowledge that I am an agent of change. • I balance the need for both equity and diversity in communities.” Page 8 https://education.alberta.ca/media/3272998/competency-indicators-september-30-2016.pdf

[iii] Nothing could be found in searches of economic history in the area to corroborate this statement.  Fun fact: the largest oil production company in Saskatchewan is the Federated Co-op; a unionized, socialist venture. https://www.coopconnection.ca/wps/wcm/connect/83e6cd9c-f018-43d7-83c2-730c9b9b9fbb/FCL-Annual-Report-2014.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

[iv] “In recent years, Saskatchewan's agricultural and mineral resources have come into new demand, and it has entered a new period of strong economic growth” cited from an archived RBC economic report, 2007.

[v] Alberta and Saskatchewan GDP looks very similar, but the employment rates show the difference. In January 2017 Alberta's workforce looked like this: In Goods Producing sector: 8% Agriculture, 25% Forestry, Mining and Oil and Gas, 3% Utilities. 43% construction and 18% manufacturing. The same sectors in Saskatchewan: 25% Agriculture, 16% Forestry, Mining and Oil and Gas, 3% Utilities, 32% construction and 18% manufacturing. The only difference was found in Saskatchewan from the previous January; manufacturing increased from 16%, construction decreased from 35%  and agriculture decreased from 26%. https://www.saskatchewan.ca/business/invest-and-economic-development/exporting-and-trade https://www.albertacanada.com/files/albertacanada/SP-EH_highlightsABEconomyPresentation.pdf
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labr67i-eng.htm
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labr67j-eng.htm 

[vi] The newly-formed CPC lost the election in 2003 to the Liberals; won a minority in 2006, a larger minority in 2008, a majority in 2011 and lost it in 2015; that’s not exactly a stellar record. http://thisweekinabpolitics.blogspot.ca/2017/01/the-saga-is-still-ongoing.html

Monday, 16 January 2017

The Saga is Ongoing

The PC Party held a Leadership Debate in Edmonton on Sunday where Richard Starke, Jason Kenney, Stephen Khan and Byron Nelson squared off.  Kenney remains the only candidate who is campaigning for the party's destruction through a merger with the Wildrose (possibly into a completely new party).  The other three are campaigning on party renewal.

Kenney's grand idea likely stems from his own experience with a merge at the federal level. In 2003 the membership of the federal Progressive Conservative Party voted to merge with the Canadian Alliance Party and become the Conservative Party of Canada. The Liberals won in 2003 but the united conservatives won a minority government in 2006 with a Liberal Opposition.  Two years later, they formed a slightly larger, but still minority, government also with a Liberal Opposition.  In 2011 they finally won a majority government and the NDP became the Official Opposition.  Just one election later, in 2015, the Liberals won a majority with the Conservatives taking over as Official Opposition.

Alberta, however, has not seen this sort of back and forth.  In 1935 the Social Credit Party won its first majority government and stayed in power until 1971.  Social Credit was beaten by the Progressive Conservatives who ruled Alberta until 2015.  This strange history of not changing out governments could be why Kenney felt he had to leave federal politics and save us.  He's here to stop a non-conservative government from potentially governing the most conservative province in Canada for 30 or so years.

To achieve this feat, Kenney is counting on the tabulation of votes for PC and Wildrose in the 2015 election.  The logic is that Wildrose and PC votes added together beat the NDP in many cases and therefore a united party could beat the NDP in 2019.  That's it. If Albertans only have a choice between Conservative or not conservative, he and his backers believe that Albertans will vote conservative (which is how Alberta voted federally).

The flaws in this logic are many and varied but here's a sampler:

  1.  More people voted against PC, and against Wildrose, than for either of them individually.  That is not necessarily the case with NDP (in one riding, the NDP clobbered the opposition by 6-8000 votes where the combined opposition vote was less than 3000 and this was not an isolated case).  Those results were non-existent for ANY other party in the 2015 provincial election.
  2. People vote for different things at different levels of government. 
  3. In this case, 1 + 1 does not actually equal 2.  Wildrose has a bad reputation for being anti-LGBTQ+, socially repressive, climate change denying, fact-resistant whiners.  The PC Party (from which many of the "more" conservative voters defected to Wildrose) was the "big tent party".  They were a coalition of progressives and conservatives and governed accordingly; socially progressive while still appeasing fiscal conservatives.  Kenney is not progressive (he is most accurately described as a Wildrose supporter).  He wants to "unite the right"wing voters and expel the progressives.  Those voters will not follow either Kenney or Wildrose.
  4. There's no guarantee the Wildrose is going to merge with the PC Party.  Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose, said he was opposed to a merger of the PC's and his party (though it's debatable how much his opinion matters as he is definitely standing out as not-so-Wildrose) while the number two has publicly backed it.
  5. There is another fiscally conservative and socially progressive party in Alberta; the Alberta Party.  Folding the PC Party could do more for the Alberta Party than for the Conservative conglomerate (if people figure out who the Alberta Party is).
  6. A united right party could push moderate small-c conservatives and social progressives straight to the NDP in fear of a hard-right conservative government (the most likely outcome in my opinion).
A sampler... each deserving of, and will likely receive, a more detailed post in the future.

D.