Bringing Alberta Together

This week I was fortunate enough to attend not one but two meetings about unity.  First up was Derek Fildebrandt's Unity Town Hall on Thursday which I tweeted live as best as I was able.  In a room of about 80 people, Derek's speech fell flat on the crowd.  I've seen him a couple of times in person and he's not a bad speaker.  In Question Period he's quite dramatic and often amusing, if only because of his dramatic flair.  That was not the case on Thursday and I can't help but think it's because the speech was authored by someone else.  The questions at the end were more insightful and Derek was back to his more recognizable self while answering them.

Photo Credit: Daveberta.ca

"I look around the room and see 50 and 60 year olds" one man said, "where are the 40 year olds?" As Derek scanned the crowd, I imagine he was disappointed to see me as the lone representative of the age group in question.  I've had a few interactions with Derek in the past couple of years and he is well aware I do not support his "vision" for Alberta. "The young people are at the back" Derek said with obvious relief.  And they were; the youth volunteers.

"How are you going to engage the young people?" the same man asked.  "Liberty Conservativism" Derek replied.  "I don't think anyone should go to jail for smoking marijuana" he declared to a group of individuals who likely don't agree with him at all. "I realize that may not be a popular stance in this room" he said.  I do believe he is misinterpreting Trudeau's success as being heavily dependent on that statement.  What he's missing is how the younger people in this country reacted to Trudeau's declared commitment to the environment, adequately preparing Canada for a future in a global economy and inclusion; and Derek can't offer that commitment to his supporters without alienating a good majority of them.  Welcome to Alberta's right wing.

Kerry Cundal and Stephanie Shostak

The second event I attended was the Alberta Together meeting in Red Deer.  On Friday I was told the event had sold 250 tickets.  They accepted registration at the door as well and had 50 blank cards for name tags.  They ran out of blank tags and the later arrivals used blank paper squares.  They hadn't ordered enough food for lunch and it was pushed back an extra hour as the staff at The Black Knight Inn accommodated a request for food for an additional one hundred people.

To the gentleman at Derek's Unity event, I found the 40 year olds; and the 30 year olds and the 20 year olds who were willing to attend an event about a new political vision for Alberta.  There were also 50 year olds and 60 year olds.  People from different cultural backgrounds and people from all over the province.  There were people from different political backgrounds as well.  It was an incredible mix of people who looked a lot like the Alberta I've seen while traveling around the province over the past three months.

At the beginning of the session we logged in to a wireless poll and questions were presented so we could get an idea of whether or not people agreed with statements taken from Alberta Party policy, Liberal policy and former Progressive Conservative policy.  There were also a few statements from Wildrose policy.  On Liberal, ABP and Progressive Conservative policy, people voted over 90% in agreement with the polices.  On Wildrose policy, they voted over 90% in disagreement in all but one category; "the government should provide incentives to employment for people receiving government benefits".  That was almost an even split.  Talking with attendees afterward, many said it would depend on the program.  AISH, Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped, for example, was not a program people believed should be "incentivized" as recipients often could not work, or could not work full-time due to permanent mental or physical disabilities.

Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark
Photo Credit: Nicolas Pelletier/Radio-Canada

While the Alberta Liberal Party was invited to speak to the crowd, they (likely politely) declined.  An unfortunate choice to make since the room was full of people looking to hear what their best options were for a party to support in 2019.  As it was, they heard from Greg Clark, leader of the Alberta Party, Stephen Mandel, a prominent (former?) Progressive Conservative, and Kerry Cundal, who must be everyone's favourite recent Alberta Liberal supporter.  The question "How do we move forward" was posed near the end of the meeting.  The options were: Start a new party, attempt a merge with another centrist party, join the Alberta Party and "other".  83% chose "join the Alberta Party".

As the former PC Party and Wildrose fight for the Wildrose supporters of late and the PC members of old, the moderates in Alberta don't seem willing to give up their progressive, or conservative, values.  Welcome to the centre; we will build Alberta together.

PC Party Delegate Selection Meeting

Earlier in February I drove over an hour to attend a delegate selection meeting (DSM).  This is just one more of those things that I've never had the interest, and therefore the opportunity, to attend.  I'm glad I went, though, because it was a gong show.

The average age of attendees was around 59. I wondered as I was looking around the room if it was just older people who show up at these things. Then I remembered I do have something to compare it to. Do you know what the average age is at an Alberta Party event? I'd give it 38.  I promise to attend a Liberal and NDP event in the future so I can compare them as well but obviously, this is a problem for conservatives.

As I entered the designated locale, there were two people standing outside the doors.  "Jason Kenney?" One of them asked me.  "Uhhh" I stammered. I wanted that sheet, but I also wanted the other one and I didn't know how this worked. "Renewal?" The next guy asked while handing me a sheet. I smiled and took his sheet as well.  I entered the building and there were four tables set up for registration.  She found my name, checked my two pieces of identification and gave me a ballot.  Being my first time I filled it out right away since I thought I had all the information I needed.

The rules were reviewed for us and we were going to hear from each of the delegates.  They were instructed to not say anything disparaging about another campaign or candidate and I now wished I could attend more to see if that's a problem at DSMs or if it's just part of the rules.  Even though I'd already chosen my candidates, I was happy we were going to hear from them.  (((Gong)))

The delegates were going to come up one by one and none of them took their full minute. Due to their efficiency, I can put this into bullet points:

1. is not committed to any candidate.  He is waiting for proof that the person running will be a good premier.  He was in municipal government and says that in 10 years he had never had an unbalanced budget.  He said government needs to get used to working with what they have and getting the best value for their dollar. He was new to this process and didn't trust those who make big promises and statements because you can't give everyone everything. 
2. is supporting unity as it's the "only way".  A coalition, he said, was just another shady backroom deal like the last time that would alienate voters. After they unite we can then have our choice of leader. 
3. "Alberta fell apart" she said "and it scared" her.  She is a teacher. "We need to teach kids what PC Alberta is" (is that social engineering?).  She wants a fiscally conservative, socially responsible government.  She is on the Renewal slate.
4. this delegate was listed on both slates as a supporter (wish I'd seen that before I marked my ballot) and was excused from attendance for a valid reason so I have no idea what he stands for.
5. was an Albertan first and would vote to unite together as conservatives.
6. wanted to unify on bigger issues than "defeat the NDP" and she wanted to "do it right".  She also mentioned that she saw a lot of "Wild Conservatives" and "Progressive Rosies" in the crowd.
7. brought up a piece of paper, said she wouldn't take long and had a verbal vomit of "grassroots members, conservatives unite, end socialist government, grassroots"... Unity slate.
8. said it didn't matter who the leader was so long as they "talk to us".
9. is a long-time conservative and is pro-unity.
10. said "if we do the same thing in 2019 expecting a different result, we're kidding ourselves." He wants to unite under Jason Kenney.  He also noted that he was listed on both slates and that was evidence of the "top-down PC party" of the past. 
11. wants to unite before the NDP tears this province apart. 
12. says we need to be strong and get the province back where it should be. 
13. wants to unite the parties with the grassroots. There is no future with the NDP.
14. believed that uniting the right was "admirable" but he wanted the parties to "do it right". 
15. he wasn't sure who he was going to vote for but he wanted the party to "take time to do it right". 
16. said we won't survive under this socialist government and he believed the right leader is Jason Kenney.
17. was an oilfield worker whose son was a recent graduate in environmental science, his daughter was a nurse and his wife was a nurse. Conversations around his table were interesting but they all agreed about one thing: Rewarding free-enterprise and working ethically.  It is important to get a free-enterprise conservative party. 
18. was born and raised in Alberta.  She had worked in oil and gas for 25 years and was a grassroots conservative.  She is voting to unite.
19. was a long-time conservative who is concerned about property rights and what this socialist government will do with them.  She is voting to unite. 
20. was born and raised in Alberta and just wants a fair shake and a government who represents the grassroots.
21. says it is a nightmare in Alberta.  She wants a strong socially responsible conservative government.  She was listed on the Unity slate. 
22. supports Jason Kenney because unity needs to happen for everyone, even the progressive side.  After they unite, we can then elect the right person to run the party and government. 

In the end, I found the people listed on the Unity slate to be cohesive and on-message and the Renewal slate to be less certain of their stance; two stated they didn't know who they would support (and one was on the Renewal slate and wasn't sure why).  Two people were on both slates and the one who was there to speak his peace said he had no idea how he got onto the Renewal slate.  He felt this was evidence of the "old top-down PC party". Talk about disorganization; and embarrassment. Someone once told me to watch Jason Kenney's campaign if I wanted to see a well-organized, tight campaign; he was right (of course).

I spoke with delegate hopeful number one afterwards because I was curious as to how he was going to make his decision.  Unfortunately, he wasn't yet sure.  He'd spoken with Fildebrandt about the unity plan previously but he just wasn't sure if this was the right way to go.  He agreed that there needed to be something more concrete than "beat the NDP" but none of the plans put forward have any more than that yet.  I asked if he'd attended any Wildrose events and he admitted he had not.  I told him the atmosphere was much different.  They are relatively excited, I said, and I think it's because they don't feel like they have anything to lose. The PC events, on the other hand, are mixed; some people are excited, others are not. 

Delegate hopeful number one said his real worry was where the center mass would go; would they go center-left with the liberals? Center-right with the Alberta Party? Would they re-elect the NDP? He doesn't think they'll follow the united conservative party.  I agreed.  Think what you will about the Wildrose plus PC equals beat the NDP but people had a choice last election and they didn't choose Wildrose. Maybe they're counting on a lot of people "holding their noses" to vote Wildrose 2.0.  Or, rather, praying for it. 

D.

A Progressive Dilemma

This morning Richard Starke, one of four candidates for PC leadership, announced that his plan for "unity" is to work with the Wildrose Party to beat the NDP in 2019.  This has been referred to as a "non-plan" and a "hail Mary".  Some have speculated that this plan would involve more backroom deals like the one that led to the 2014 floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs, including the leader of the party, to the PCs.  For example would certain candidates only run in certain ridings?  Keep the PC candidates out of rural areas for example?  Or would they just scratch each other's backs more once one of them became government?

In any case, people stopped talking about it entirely once Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose party, came out with his own announcement that he was also on board with uniting the parties and he would run for leader of that united conservative party.  Personally, I have little faith in Brian Jean having any chance at the leadership role simply because he's jumped onto Kenney's bandwagon.

Now Brian Jean did not say he supported Kenney.  He has also said he has his own idea for uniting the conservatives.  The problem most of us see is that not all conservatives feel at home with all other conservatives. When Lougheed became the leader of a plucky little party that almost literally brought itself back from the dead, there was a term for people who believed in progressive values and fiscal conservatism; Red Tories (which is a mix of liberal (red) and conservative).  These Red Tories still exist today and they are very likely a plentiful bunch, particularly in the urban ridings.

Thomas Lukaszuk appeared with Laurie Blakeman and Mariam Ibrahim on Dinner TV Edmonton tonight to talk politics with Courtney Theriault and he brought up an interesting point.  Very few people believe that Kenney actually managed to get the support he has been claiming from within the PC Party without bringing in some Wildrose faithful.  Lukaszuk said that Kenney is counting those individuals as proof that he has the support of the PCs... but they aren't PC supporters.  Even if Kenney manages to become leader of the party (and it certainly seems likely that he will), there are many progressive-minded conservatives who will not join him in a Wildrose party.

So where, if the proudly progressive conservative party is no more, will these voters go?  While many are pointing to the viability of the Alberta Party as a home for centrists and progressive values with fiscal responsibility considerations... I don't see it happening.

In 2012 the Wildrose party, under the skillful and inspiring leadership of Danielle Smith, was poised to actually be a very strong contender against the PCs.  Rumour has it, they could have formed government.  Except for one thing; a blog post from a candidate that claimed gay people would burn in a "lake of fire".  That story hit the media streams the week before the 2012 election and voters rushed back to the PC party, so they say.

It is my humble opinion that if a conservative party does emerge as some sort of united front, those Red Tories will turn to NDP to stop the rush of social conservatives from taking over government.  In doing so, they will neglect their likely more happy home with the Alberta party until the united conservatives no longer pose an actual threat to their way of life.  But I could be wrong.

D.