Notley's Pipe Dream Come True - Politically Speaking

When Trudeau announced the federal government would be purchasing Trans Mountain, few were shocked.  After all, Notley had said the provincial government would consider investing after Kinder Morgan ceased non-essential spending back in April.  Conservatives are saying there is no reason to celebrate because private investment was chased away.  Throughout Alberta's oil-drilling history however, and Canada's as well, the federal and provincial governments have both invested in natural resource development.

Most notably, Peter Lougheed invested in Suncor in the 70's and Trudeau Sr. started Petro-Canada.  The Suncor investment paid out not only to the government of Alberta as an investor but continues to do so today through royalties, taxes and job creation.  Petro-Canada was eventually sold for $6 billion.  Even so, the Conservatives are not happy.

Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

The word "failure" has been thrown around a lot since yesterday morning.  While consistently calling on the federal government to "enforce the rule of law", Conservative politicians deliberately ignored the court challenges from the B.C. government which also fall under "rule of law".  Sound bites are better to feed the masses with but you know the old saying "actions speak louder than a grassroots guarantee".

The federal government opted for their best chance of developing the pipeline; Crown immunity.  A private company is not immune to legal challenges but Crown immunity allows the federal government paramountcy over other levels of government.  As owner of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the federal government will have the ability to truly exercise its authority where Kinder Morgan could have been held up indefinitely by continuous court challenges from B.C.; or as Jason Kenney so eloquently stated "death by delay".

There were also accusations of "corporate welfare" but the federal government is currently seeking investors for the project.  The Alberta government has also made a pledge of up to $2 billion dollars in the event of cost overruns but Notley made it clear that if the Alberta government contributes any money to the pipeline, it will be in the form of an equity stake; not a "gift". 

Politically speaking, both Notley and Trudeau can celebrate although the federal Liberals will very likely take a hit both in BC and Quebec.  Though he is often accused of "ignoring" Alberta, Trudeau spent a lot of political capital for Alberta's economy.  As much as the Conservative opposition at both levels of government know the pipeline needs to be built, for them, it is an unwelcome development.

At the federal level, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has taken the bold position that Trudeau's decision "failed B.C.".   Personally, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see if Alberta's Conservatives will follow suit.  While Kenney frequently called Trudeau Notley's "good friend" while the pipeline was being held up it is apparently better to make friends than enemies - politically speaking.

Alberta NDP - Time to Cut the Cord?

The federal NDP has been making life difficult for the Alberta NDP since they formed government in 2015.  From the introduction of the LEAP Manifesto at the federal NDP Convention held in Edmonton in 2016 the federal party has been nothing but trouble for the provincial party; and that doesn't look like it's about to change.

The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Yesterday, federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced BC has his support in the Trans Mountain dispute.  Certainly, from a political point of view, support for the federal party is much stronger in BC than it can ever hope to be in Alberta.  This wasn't an announcement without thought; the parent party chose a side between the warring sibling Premiers.

Having a federal counterpart can be both a benefit and a curse.  In terms of support, visibility and credibility, such as with the CPC in Alberta and the Liberals in the east, having a federal counterpart endorse a provincial candidate can be a huge benefit.  If a provincial candidate can access an existing voter base, there is also a greater likelihood of success.

Take, for instance, Devin Dreeshen's candidacy for the UCP in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election.  His father, Earl Dreeshen, was first elected in 2008 to represent the CPC in the federal riding of Red Deer-Mountainview.  The family name is a likely boon but there is also an existing base of support consisting of door knockers, donors and a current list of phone numbers and email addresses of probable voters.  In politics, there are few things more valuable.

In the NDP's case, at least in Alberta, their federal ties would best be described as a curse, as the opposition in the Legislature cannot help but gleefully mention at least a few times a week.  Now Singh and the federal NDP have officially washed their hands of both Alberta and its governing party.  The Alberta NDP can no longer ignore the fact that their connection to the federal NDP is a liability.

On the ground, few would disagree that Rachel Notley won the 2015 election in spite of her affiliation with the federal NDP and not because of it. The party's provincial convention should be coming up soon and maybe the big question for the membership should be whether they would support the ND's cutting the cord and making their own way in the world.  It certainly appears they're being forced to do that anyway.

UCP Stance on GSAs Makes International Headlines - Again

It's been Christmas in May for the NDP since the UCP AGM.  Every day seems to add one more feather to the government's caps.  After the membership voted in favour of reinstating parental notification for "extra-curricular activities" that involved the distribution of "resources" pertaining to religion or sexuality on Sunday, all parties (including Jason Kenney) have been on the defensive.  It is a "very badly worded" motion Kenney told CTV Power Play, as he stood "by his decision not to enact" the policy members voted for.

"Research shows that GSAs save lives and this policy flies in the face not only of scientific evidence but of basic human decency as well" said a press release from the Alberta NDP on Sunday.  Stephen Mandel, leader of the Alberta Party, stated there are"certain fundamental things that are not negotiable: children's rights and their (right) to join a GSA (Gay-Straight Alliance)".  It's "a step backwards", echoed Alberta Liberal Party leader David Khan.

Another gift for the Government is the newly-formed habit of the UCP to walk out of the Legislature when they don't like the topic.  That topic of late is Bill 9, the legislation which will require a 50 metre safeguard for staff and patients entering and exiting clinics that offer abortion services.  The UCP has walked out en masse from three debates on the Bill so far; April 11, May 3, and again on May 9.  Some quipped the government could effectively keep them out of the Legislature permanently by extending the debates.

Funny though it might seem, MLAs in Alberta are elected to represent their constituents.  Kenney himself said the Party "will have to govern for all Albertans, not just Conservative Party members", yet has instructed his caucus not to show up for debate; and they have listened.  Is a representative that is beholden only to the Party Leader a true representative of the people who elected them?

Finally, although it's only Thursday, for the second time since Jason Kenney came to "save" Alberta, the reluctance of Kenney and his supporters to acknowledge a teen's right to privacy became international news.  For the record, no one is suggesting teens cannot tell their parents if they join a GSA.  If anything, this new legislation should be an opportunity for increased dialogue between parents and their children.

While I never personally thought of the UCP as the gift that keeps on giving, one has to admit they have not had a good week.  Luckily for them, most people don't pay attention to politics until election time.  Unfortunately, the UCP is very quickly acquiring "old" Party baggage the "new" Party was supposed to have left behind.

Is Kenney Fighting For or Against Alberta Oil?

The political theatre playing out in politics does offer one silver lining: there's plenty to talk about.  However, there is a downside and right now, Kenney's theatrics may end up helping John Horgan receive the provincial jurisdiction he so desperately wants to be able to limit the amount of oil shipped from BC's ports.  Thanks to Kenney and the UCP's continued grandstanding on the federal carbon tax issue, they are demonstrating a clear defiance that only bolsters the BC NDP's position against the Trans Mountain Expansion.

The federal government approved the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) in 2016 and has repeatedly said the pipeline is "in the national interest".  The federal carbon tax implementation has been billed as a way to purchase 'social license' and this term has been mangled so many times it's less clear for whom the social license was intended.  While a number of people claim it was to buy acceptance from environmentalists, Notley's support for the federal carbon tax was clearly to gain the social license from the federal government for approval.

Of the opposition parties, the Alberta Party was in favour of a consumer carbon tax back in 2015 but both Greg Clark and David Swann voted against the NDP format.  It just makes sense to support the federal government when the province needs federal support in return.  As Kenney makes his contradictory play in support of both federal and provincial jurisdiction, he helps make Horgan's case for provincial jurisdiction in BC.

In working the narrative to paint Alberta's NDP and the federal Liberals as "best friends", the UCP furthers this narrative of supporting the federal government as a bad thing to score political points in Alberta.  What is it doing for BC?  Yet again, this narrative only helps the anti-approval sentiment in the province.  Kenney is playing both sides of this debate and if he is successful it could mean the absolute denial of increased access for Alberta oil.  He'll blame the Liberals and the NDP but this is on him and his desperate attempt to fuel anger for votes.

All actions have consequences.  As Jason Kenney continues to grandstand on the matter of federal jurisdiction regarding the carbon tax, he is fighting for the federal government to concede jurisdiction over provincial matters.  This is precisely what the BC NDP is fighting for.  If Kenney succeeds, it will set a precedent for other provinces to defy the federal government's decisions including the one he claims to be fighting for.

The Numbers Game

On Thursday, the Alberta Party released its membership numbers.  To some, like Lorne Gunter, the UCP-immersed columnist for the Edmonton Sun, it was an exercise in over-confidence.  Their numbers, now exceeding 6,500, are in the realm of what the Official Opposition leader Jason Kenney claimed the PC Party had... in 2016.  Before Kenney began his quest to unite the wayward conservatives from the PC Party back with "true" conservatives from the Wildrose Party, the PC Party membership had, according to him, plummeted to ~6,500.

Of course, it's not true but it makes for a fantastic tale of personal accomplishment.  Imagine if he actually had taken a party with 6,500 members to 40,000 in a few short months; now that would be an achievement!  The reality though, is not even Stephen Harper's number two managed such a feat.

Former PCAA board members confirm the PC party had around 26,000 members in July of 2016.  By the start of the leadership race in October, that number was around 30,000.  In March of 2017, the party boasted over 40,000 members.  For context, the membership numbers during the 2014 PCAA leadership race were ~77,000.

From October 2016 to March 2017, around 10,000 PC memberships were sold, or ~2,500 per month.  According to the info-graphic from the Alberta Party, they had 1,650 members in November of 2017 and now have 6,600.  The leadership race began in December so they sold ~2,475 per month.  Is there any certainty the PCs would have sold 10,000 memberships in a two month race or that the AP would have sold almost 10,000 in a four month race?  No.  What they did do was sell around the same amount on a monthly basis and that is not as insignificant as some would like you to believe.

While there are going to be detractors and celebrators, political party membership is small.  Approximately 4-6% of the population bothers to buy memberships yet over 50% vote.  It would be a mistake to believe that both the NDP and Conservative parties aren't paying attention.  The centre of the political spectrum is where most Albertans are and neither the NDP nor the UCP can allow the other to move in on that space.  So they will keep pushing each other further left, and right, and allow plenty of room for a party whose policies are in line with both fiscally and socially responsible voters.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and VP Membership for the same. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.  Today is also the first day of my two week staycation and I'm still in my pjs. Cheers.

Unpopular Opinion: Premier Notley Got it Wrong

In a stunningly bad move by the Alberta NDP, Premier Rachel Notley held a live presser today and announced the Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission would immediately stop importing BC wine.  This is in addition to the Alberta government ceasing talks with BC to import electricity from the Site C Dam last week.  Jason Kenney has been egging this on from the sidelines for over a year and the NDP finally took the bait.  But Kenney missed the opportunity when he agreed, albeit backhandedly, with the Premier's decision.

Entering into a trade war with the closest port we have access to seems like a bad idea on most days

hellobc.com

but it feels worse as the Alberta economy is still hiking out of a recession. We don't need a trade war. The Alberta-Saskatchewan license plate debacle was bad enough and that was pretty lame compared to this. No matter what happens from this point, BC still holds has checkmate; they can delay the pipeline expansion while they commission environmental impact assessments. 

While BC NDP holds off "big oil" with their millions or billions of dollars keeping them afloat, Premier Notley struck back at small and medium-sized businesses and "family farms".  In response, BC is looking into how they can retaliate (there's a reason society finally accepted the logical fallacy of that "eye for an eye" thing).  Sure, this might be a popular response from a Premier but it's not smart.  What happens if BC restaurants do decide to stop serving Alberta Beef?  What happens if they decide to get on board with those who oppose the pipeline?  What happens if they find other ways to block Alberta's access to tidewater? Two wrongs don't make a right and the Premier made a bad decision - as if Kenney agreeing with her doesn't speak loudly enough.

kindermorgan.com

This decision has worse consequences for Alberta than it does for BC.  I understand that something needed to be done but we had the rule of law on our side.  We had the constitution on our side.  Now, we have become petty.  That's not what I want from my government - populism be damned.  We stand to lose a lot more over infighting.

The fact of the matter is that the pipeline is ALREADY in the ground.  It has been there for over 50 years.  A fifty year old pipeline is going to be upgraded to 2017 standards and BC is opposing that for what reason?  I mean seriously.  Do the residents of BC prefer the old one?  Because it's already there.  Kinder Morgan is doing you a favour by upgrading it; why are you on board with the government holding that up?  Newer technology, the ability to replace old, worn parts; how do you lose?  

If you fly out of #YVR, you are relying on fuel shipped through that pipeline.  The world still needs oil and BC still uses it.  The fact of the matter is, BC, that without those pipelines, you are just as landlocked as our oil is - you aren't getting out without what's shipped through those pipes.  

The Incredible Shrinking Caucus

Just before noon on Friday, Jason Kenney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed and leader of the Official Opposition released a statement officially barring Derek Fildebrandt from returning to the UCP caucus.  Fildebrandt had attended court Friday morning to respond to illegal hunting charges from November, 2017 which first hit the news cycle in December of 2017.  At that time, Kenney told reporters that Fildebrandt could apply to be reinstated but "would discourage him from doing so unless or until he's resolved any outstanding issues."  (That article is a great read through the lens of recent information by the way).

It's certainly possible Derek received a blow to the ego when Kenney released his statement; for too long it seemed as if the most popular Wildrose MLA in the province could reach no low which was too low.  Flaunting fiduciary duties and the law didn't seem to take the wind from his sails.  Certainly, some conservatives had their feathers ruffled but it wasn't until the final accusation, "related to unlawful hunting practices", that this pundit feels went too far for the base.  And a cautionary tale to those who can't seem to get away with everything; when the boss calls you in for an "executive grilling" and you don't think he knows about your latest escapade; he knows.

Photo credit @UCPCaucus on Twitter

Fildebrandt, however, was already out of caucus.  Don MacIntyre, MLA for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake gave his notice to the caucus around noon on Friday.  He then tweeted that he was leaving politics to focus on family.  A publication ban is in place but several news outlets broke the story anyway, that the (former?) MLA was facing criminal charges.  Commentary is flowing freely among the unbound public if anyone is interested in finding out more.  While neither Fildebrandt nor MacIntyre left of their own volition (really), it is unlikely they will be the last to shake off those depressing shades of blue.

Having not been seen in the Legislature and being noticeably absent from Kenney's swearing-in ceremony, it is expected that Brian Jean, MLA Fort McMurray - Conklin, will be stepping down as well.  Some might say it's sour grapes and others might say it's a simple 'F' you to the new leader.  My money's on the latter even though I am prepared for a sincere "I want to spend more time with my family" statement.

But the other unknown at this point is who will be leading the Alberta Party and whether their leadership will provide any unhappily shackled MLAs with the motivation to move on.  The successful candidate, between contenders Rick Fraser, MLA for Calgary-South East, Kara Levis, Calgary Energy Lawyer and former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel will take on the Official Opposition and the Governing Party with their version of Alberta's brighter future and who knows what will happen?

For those of you who have lost track since 2015, the PC party lost one MLA in 2016, and then technically lost seven in 2017, the UCP lost two in 2017 and four so far in 2018, the NDP gained one (from the PCs) and lost one (to the Alberta Party), and the Alberta party has gained two - one from the right and one from the left.  I hate to say it, but this could turn out to be a livelier year in provincial politics than the last.

Update: Brian Jean announced his departure from the Alberta Legislature and the UCP caucus on March 5, 2018.

So You're Not Running a Candidate in Calgary-Lougheed

After a stellar showing at their AGM over the weekend, the Alberta Party officially announced Tuesday it would not be running a candidate in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election this Christmas season. A statement from the Party said they would instead abide by parliamentary tradition and allow three opposition leaders without a seat in the legislature, and the government, to duke it out while they prepared for a leadership race.  While one UCP supporter claimed announcing the outcome of the by-election was a "foregone conclusion" was defeatist, does anyone really believe Jason Kenney picked Calgary-Lougheed because he might have to work for it?   While this author took a stab at predicting who would step down for Kenney earlier this year, I missed the obvious benefit of removing the longest serving Calgary MLA, Dave Rodney; my bad.

Photo Credit: Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press

Referred to as a "stronghold", incumbents have the best chance of re-election, especially those who have been re-elected three times.  Naturally, if not an incumbent, the incumbent's party leader.   The NDP had to run a candidate because they are the government and it's quite likely they held back from announcing the date of the by-election until they found someone who could be everything that Kenney wasn't (and also take away some bragging rights from the AB Libs).

When fighting a social conservative college drop out who "served" his country by grandstanding on decades old belief systems, there's few better to enter the ring than a happily married gay doctor.  Dr. Phillip van der Merwe takes the edge on a single gay lawyer by having already made a lifetime commitment to another in the eyes of the law and of course God, who witnesses all marital unions.  Oh, and the Alberta Green Party leader is running as well.

The Alberta Party can happily leave this definite hot mess alone.  Kenney only has good old faith in traditional marriage, anti-carbon tax, anti-socialism, anti-compassion and a pie-in-the-sky promise that economic miracles will abound if he forms government in 2019.  The NDP will run on policy, GSAs and the fact that the economy is getting better even without Jason Kenney's magic conservative wand.  David Khan will run on his anti-PAC advocacy and hope that Trudeau shows up to knock on a door or two.  I imagine Kenney is hoping for the same since it seems he'd rather be facing off with Trudeau anyway.

While some are trying to set the narrative that the Alberta Party was either too weak or lonesome to run a candidate, UCP supporters on social media are obsessing about the Alberta Party and not the by-election.  It would appear the Alberta Party doesn't have to enter a by-election to take headlines or energy away from the UCP and it's highly probable that annoys them more than anything else.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and also the executive as VP Membership. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1992.

Alberta's Choice

Alberta may be in line for yet another credit downgrade from its current A+ rating after DBRS reviewed the NDP's fiscal update.  Finance Minister Joe Ceci released a statement on Wednesday accompanying the update and reiterated the government's commitment to ensuring services remain available for Albertans.  Interestingly enough, the UCP caucus is also facing a deficit and is looking to borrow from MLA allowances and/or cut caucus staff.  Presumably the 38 staffers are excited to see which of them will remain employed in the disastrous economic climate their employer assures them exists.

While the NDP are still holding onto hope that oil prices will rebound it's looking less and less likely to happen before 2019 (note: the links are not Alberta specific but global forecasts).  The NDP is in a difficult position because if they raise taxes, they will be hounded by the opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  By maintaining the status quo they will be hounded by opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  There's always option number three: they could cut services and jobs and look like hypocrites to their supporters.  Their only hope was a resource royalty miracle.

But don't think for a second the UCP isn't in the same boat.  They need resource revenue as well because even though we can't pay for the services we currently have, they want to cut taxes further.  They, however, are not afraid to cut services and jobs.  Their active supporters, a large number of whom are 55 and older, living in rural areas with few health services or urban areas without adequate space for placement in seniors' facilities and wait lists for surgeries, are cheering for it, actually.  Everyone knows the old saying "the less you pay, the better quality you receive"... or something like that.

The NDP desperately needed resource revenues to return so they could be in a strong position to maintain government in 2019.  If they won't raise taxes to support the spending or cut the spending, they will go further into debt at what looks to be a higher level of interest if Alberta's credit rating drops again.  The credit rating agencies have said there are only two options to keep the credit rating we have and maintaining the status quo is not one of them.  While the Wildrose/UCP continues to look less like the financial stewards they claimed to be, other parties are being given the opportunity to offer a real choice in 2019.

How Alberta's Carbon Tax May Have Made Gas Cheaper

Rick Perry is not an economist and neither am I, just so you know.  I was, however, paying attention in junior high when I was taught about 'supply and demand' (note: I was educated in the Canadian public school system which is pretty darned good).  I also live in Alberta which is only just starting to get its bearings back after a nasty recession caused by... an increase in the global supply of oil... which caused the price of oil to drop.  It's therefore entirely possible I have a better perspective of supply and demand than the Energy Secretary of the United States of America (I'm so sorry, America).

In what was termed a "Canada Day Miracle", gas prices did not increase as Canadians headed into a long weekend.  Not only did they not increase at all during the week, gas prices are at a seven year low... because the supply of available gas is higher than the demand.  When there is more supply than demand, prices go down; it's what the "law of supply and demand" is (again, I'm sorry, America).

When the Alberta NDP announced they would implement a carbon tax in an effort to get people thinking about their personal contribution to emissions, there was an uproar in Alberta.  To be fair, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than most citizens.  Somehow, there's a belief that Alberta is so rich we shouldn't have to pay taxes at all:

Fall 1998:  The government surveyed Albertans about their fiscal priorities in the "Talk it up. Talk it out." survey. Albertans gave increasing savings in the Heritage Fund an importance rating of 19.2 per cent, behind eliminating the debt, reducing taxes and increasing spending in priority areas. 

                                                     - Alberta Government, Ministry of Finance

In any case, Albertans were angry; still are.  I had a multitude of conversations with Kenney-Wildrose-esque conservative supporters about how they could not, under any circumstances, reduce their gas use.  Others said they would take the bus to avoid paying a carbon tax... (you can't make this stuff up).  The point of the carbon tax, I believe, was not to get everyone to reduce their use but to encourage those who could to do so.

As previously mentioned, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than anyone else.  There are also
a lot of Albertans who are concerned about climate change.  To my basic understanding of supply and demand, I think the carbon tax may have reduced the cost of gas for those who actually need it most.

Simplistically speaking, if people who didn't need to use as much gas stopped doing so, it would reduce the demand.  If the demand goes down, those who actually need to travel for work would reap the benefits of a lower price.  Again, I'm not an economist, but in my opinion, the introduction of a carbon tax in Alberta might have actually reduced both environmental and gas costs to everyone.

The Politics of Party Affiliation

In the last week there has been a lot to talk about on the political front and very little of it provided optimism for Alberta.  In BC, MLA Christy Clark, who approved the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, lost her bid to form government and the NDP's MLA John Horgan was named Premier designate on June 30, 2017.  Though an NDP government in BC would seem like a good thing for an NDP government in Alberta, there has been a difference of opinion between the two over the necessity of increasing pipeline capacity to the BC coast.

If that wasn't enough to begin to rile the Conservative troops in Alberta as they prepared to celebrate Canada's 150th birthday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered his Canada Day speech in Ottawa naming the individual provinces and territories that make up this incredible country we call Canada and somehow skipped over Alberta.  Trudeau and politically engaged individuals across the country felt the backlash before it even started.  Just remember, when conservatives make a gaffe and apologize, everyone is expected to accept the apology and move on (*Note, there were a number from Fildebrandt so I just chose one at random).

Credit: Jason Kenney's official Facebook page

In Alberta, the conservative party "leaders" (Jason Kenney and MLA Brian Jean) and shakers (MLA Derek Fildebrandt) pounced on the opportunity to rally support from the separatists and conspiracy theorists.  Alberta Liberal Leader, David Khan, responded to MLA Brian Jean saying "Canada Day is the ONE day a year when politicians should be inclusive..." (no pun intended, I'm sure).  Neither the Alberta Party Leader, MLA Greg Clark, nor Alberta Premier Rachel Notley made any mention of the omission on social media.

I once had a conversation with someone about how it was beneficial for provincial parties to have federal counterparts.  The NDP, Liberals and former PC's all had a federal likeness of the same name and the Wildrose had Reform.  Even once the latter two parties merged federally, both provincial parties can lay claim to the parentage when it suits them. While the same could also be said for the NDP and Liberals, in a province that went very blue in the federal election the provincial parties are having a rough time with their federal namesakes and even their provincial cousins.

If David Khan didn't have enough of an uphill battle in the province before (and he did), the Prime Minister has managed to be unhelpful despite additional funding provided to the province during the downturn, expedition of infrastructure funding and pipeline approval. For the Alberta NDP, the federal party delivered a stunning blow almost one year after the provincial party was elected to government by tabling, and approving further discussion of the "Leap Manifesto" for implementation into federal NDP climate policy.  More recently, MP Jagmeet Singh, a federal NDP leadership candidate, claimed he would not support the addition of any pipelines, east or west for Alberta oil. Meanwhile, the federal Conservatives elected MP Andrew Scheer, a social conservative, to lead their party into the future of yesteryear. Personally, I'm starting to think it a blessing to not have a federal counterpart at all.

Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The Fight for the Centre

In the past week some Alberta Liberal Party members were able to vote for their choice of Liberal Party leader.  I say "some" because there were a number of disqualified voters. In the end, 77% of registered party members (Almost 1700) voted.  It was probably a tough choice.  David Khan and Kerry Cundal are probably the most likable and genuine individuals to face off in Alberta politics in a very long time.

Image Credit: thoughtundermined.com 

David wanted to rebuild the Liberal brand in Alberta.  He wanted to put in the work to remind people why the Alberta Liberal Party was the oldest party in the province.  He wanted to make the Alberta Liberals great again.  Kerry wanted a mandate to build a stronger centre.  She thought it was time to stop fighting for the same voter base in the middle of the political spectrum.  She said now was the time to work together with the other centrist party, the Alberta Party, and the politically homeless Progressive Conservatives who did not want to be part of a Jason Kenney - Wildrose "frankenparty".  The result was David Khan with 54% of the vote and Kerry Cundal with 46%; David won by 133 votes from a total of 1697 votes cast.

No doubt Kerry was disappointed.  As she boarded her flight overseas, I imagined she was feeling down.  It was a whirlwind of a campaign; six months worth of campaigning crammed into two.  She and David traveled the province meeting people for coffees, breakfasts, lunches, dinners, drinks and attending events; some of them together (they're also friends outside of the political arena).   Which is harder on a candidate?  Losing by a little or a lot?  When it's close you think there must have been something more you could have done; one more day of phone calls, one more trip to the other end of the province or sold a hundred and fifty more memberships to people who wouldn't be disqualified... who knows.

That was June 4th and the campaign hangover had to be pretty bad on the 5th, but time heals all wounds.  On June 6, David sent out an email reiterating his pledge to rebuild and re-energize the party and asked those who supported both him and Kerry to join together and work towards 2019.  If Kerry had some of the fight knocked out of her on Sunday it was back with a vengeance by Tuesday.

The email was titled "Let's continue this discussion".  She thanked the volunteers, supporters and the ALP members for being involved in the process.  She thanked those who were willing to think outside the box.  Then she reached out to half of the registered Liberal voters.  "46% of you were interested in hearing about what it would mean to see cooperation with other centrists and progressives in Alberta.  That discussion is ongoing and I want to personally invite you... to be a part of it."

The next meeting to discuss Alberta Together is happening in Red Deer on June 24th, 2017 from 11:00 am until 3:00 pm.  Tickets can be purchased here and it is open to anyone who wishes to be a part of this movement.  Kerry even invited David to take part; after all, almost half of the voting members chose to support a different view.  David knows he will have a lot of work ahead of him and the fight for the centre is just beginning.

The NDP and UCP would like people to think they are the only choices in 2019.   This works for both of them but does it work for Albertans?  The majority of Albertans voted PC for 44 years.  The NDP is trying to move to the centre.  The UCP could try to move into the centre as well but with Kenney's voting history and the Wildrose's ... well, Wildrose-iness, it won't be easy for them.  So who does that leave as an option?  It could be the Liberals but somehow having a majority in the federal government hasn't helped their brand here in Alberta.

Rachel Notley addressed a crowd in Calgary on June 1st asking "people who believe just as much in being progressive as they do in being conservative" to consider the NDP as a "pragmatic, progressive home." Greg Clark joined Ryan Jespersen on 630 CHED on June 7 and he referred to the influx of new members the Alberta Party has seen over the past couple of months. "There's definitely momentum in the centre and it's heading our way" he said.  Be that as it may, the only parties not aiming for the centrist voters are the highly contentious conservatives.

Call it arrogance, call it disdain; the conservatives don't want anyone who can't call themselves an absolute conservative.  The NDP, Alberta Party and Liberals are opening their doors to progressive conservatives.  That will leave three choices on the left of the right and one party, if the Kenney-Wildrose supporters surrender to the call for power, on the right.  And what will happen then?  Will there be enough of a split between the left and centre parties to allow Kenney-Wildrose to form government?  Anything's possible.

REMINDER: Members of the Wildrose Party must have been registered two weeks prior to the July 22 AGM to vote for what they think will be best for Alberta's future. The PC Party needs 51% to vote for unity and the Wildrose needs 75%.  Wildrose memberships can be purchased for $10.

The BC Election: A Day of Reckoning

BC Premier Christy Clark

May 9th is a day of reckoning for Alberta pipelines as we await the results of the BC election.  It's been a difficult few months trying to balance between what may be best for the province (not Christy Clark) and what will be best for Alberta (Christy Clark).  Alberta desperately needs greater access to tidewater and Christy Clark has (after some extortion-like negotiations) agreed to an expansion of the Kinder Morgan line.  However, Clark may not be the premier after today.

John Horgan, leader of the BC NDP has officially opposed the expansion.  Rachel Notley met with Horgan back in December and he was not swayed by her argument.   In response, Notley banned elected officials and staff from the Alberta NDP caucus from assisting in the BC NDP campaign.  This is yet a further rift in a previously unshakable circle of support from the Alberta NDP since forming government.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley

During the federal convention back in 2015, Notley found herself on the defensive against the federal party when the Leap Manifesto document was introduced and won a vote to be discussed by the party over the following two years. Speaking of which, those two years must almost be up by now.  Who would have thought that an NDP win would cause so much tension between them?  The NDP is renowned for their organization.  They support one another at the municipal, provincial and federal levels.  Supporters travel to different provinces to help the party campaign.  They were a very tight knit group; until the Alberta NDP formed government.

Now, the Alberta NDP are in the unlikely position of having to hope their friends, supporters and colleagues do not win.  Add to this the trumped up call by the Wildrose to fire an Oilsands Advisory Group member for endorsing the BC NDP, and they've had a pretty bad month.  But it could get worse.

John Horgan, BC NDP Leader

If Clark loses tonight, Horgan may make things difficult for Alberta.  Back in September of 2016, Horgan suggested he could be persuaded with regard to the pipeline.  In December he was not persuaded by Rachel Notley. In February of 2017, he said he doesn't "think Kinder Morgan is in the best interest" of BC but also (the Liberals) want to put (him) in a box saying 'no'" (to the pipeline).  Now there is always the possibility that Horgan will work with Notley if he becomes Premier but it is obvious there will be further tensions a party like the NDP may not be able to handle.

The changes that could come from the election of the BC NDP are not just related to economy and trade; these are very personal relationships.  Under normal circumstances, feuding Premiers normally don't have that and it could make a sticky situation much worse if they do.  And what if the BC NDP lose?  I think it's safe to say there's no way the AB NDP are looking forward to the results.

Update:

Andrew Weaver,
BC Green Party Leader

It became apparent at around 12:30 am that the profile of the third party leader needed to be included. Andrew Weaver, Leader of the BC Green Party, retained his seat and also added two seats to the legislature.  Because of the current seat projection (which could change due to very close races and the counting of the absentee ballots as well as the advanced poll votes), Weaver and his caucus now hold the balance of power if the Liberals and NDP maintain an even split on government business.  With a seat projection of 42-42-3 for the Liberals, NDP and Greens respectively, Weaver's views become very important.  As could be expected, he is not in favour of the Kinder Morgan expansion.  Does this mean Notley, Alberta and the pipeline will have more issues?

With the Greens elevated to a position of, let's face it, power, they are also in a position to leverage their votes for things they want.  With any luck, this will also put them into a position of making certain concessions. On this, Alberta can only hope.

The NDP Hits Back and Gets Slapped

Monday's Question Period in the Legislature yielded a surprising statement from the Deputy Premier, Sarah Hoffman, that sparked an immediate backlash and gave rise to a number of interpretations from across the political spectrum.  I had some initial misgivings about searching both "youtube" and "sewer rats" but I wasn't disappointed.  The first offering was a video titled "NDP: You're all sewer rats!".  And that seems like as good a place to start as any.

Remy and Linguine ~ Ratatouille

In case you haven't heard, in response to Jason Nixon (WR - Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre), Sarah Hoffman (ND - Edmonton - Glenora, Alberta Health Minister, Deputy Premier) replied "...while we're focused on hard hats, they're spending time with sewer rats".  Brian Jean took to Twitter to claim this was a direct insult to Albertans and many people agreed with him.

On the other side of the debate was a confident and unapologetic interpretation of "sewer rats" referring to bigots, xenophobes, racists and the like, along with their sympathizers, fans and/or subscribers.  Hoffman has since apologized, saying only that it "certainly did not refer to Albertans".  Was it a dumb comment?  I think so.  Was it as outrageous as some are making it out to be?  Not so much.

I tend to check out Urban Dictionary when I want to know what the cool kids are saying (and I know what I'll get if I use an actual dictionary to find a definition for "sewer rat").  In summary, even Urban Dictionary had an entry for the literal term and none of the definitions seemed to fit either description from the political right or left.  The short list is rat-like features, "greasy, short male", "Ja Rule" (I don't even want to know) "Underground (secretive)" and my personal favourite "A punk ass scrap tryin (sic) to be hard".

Disney's "Ratatouille"

The examples are extraordinarily specific but if I put it all together, I would go with "unsavoury character" which is what a few people were saying at the time.  I, for one, think it relates to last week's Wildrose on Campus dumpster fire.  I have to note that issue itself received zero coverage from the opinion outlets; so much for "we report what the mainstream media won't" except when they want to provide some fuel for fired up ... Wildrosers?

Even though it wasn't quite on the same level as "Feminism is Cancer", the Wildrose corner the market on outrage.  They also corner the market on correct interpretations, apparently.  According to the #ableg feed from Monday night, only Brian Jean and fellow Wildrosers could accurately interpret Hoffman's meaning and all others who attempted were called "mind readers" and "clairvoyants".

The Wildrose blunder had more to do with timing; it was two days before International Women's Day.  Would it have sparked outrage anyway?  Likely.  Would it have been soooooo bad if it happened in April?  Probably not.  I would also recommend taking a look at the Red Pill if you get a chance as it's not about the men's movement that advocates for repeal of rape laws (surprise! That's a thing... a white guy thing).

Do I consider Hoffman's outburst to be worthy of the right wing drama?  Not really.  I highly doubted she was referring to Albertans at the time and I haven't been convinced by the Wildrose or opinion commentators who assert that she was.  All I can say is, if it speaks to you, then maybe you are one.  Wallow in it, whine about it, wear the badge with whatever pride this gives you.  I know she wasn't referring to me.