Unpopular Opinion: Premier Notley Got it Wrong

In a stunningly bad move by the Alberta NDP, Premier Rachel Notley held a live presser today and announced the Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission would immediately stop importing BC wine.  This is in addition to the Alberta government ceasing talks with BC to import electricity from the Site C Dam last week.  Jason Kenney has been egging this on from the sidelines for over a year and the NDP finally took the bait.  But Kenney missed the opportunity when he agreed, albeit backhandedly, with the Premier's decision.

Entering into a trade war with the closest port we have access to seems like a bad idea on most days

hellobc.com

but it feels worse as the Alberta economy is still hiking out of a recession. We don't need a trade war. The Alberta-Saskatchewan license plate debacle was bad enough and that was pretty lame compared to this. No matter what happens from this point, BC still holds has checkmate; they can delay the pipeline expansion while they commission environmental impact assessments. 

While BC NDP holds off "big oil" with their millions or billions of dollars keeping them afloat, Premier Notley struck back at small and medium-sized businesses and "family farms".  In response, BC is looking into how they can retaliate (there's a reason society finally accepted the logical fallacy of that "eye for an eye" thing).  Sure, this might be a popular response from a Premier but it's not smart.  What happens if BC restaurants do decide to stop serving Alberta Beef?  What happens if they decide to get on board with those who oppose the pipeline?  What happens if they find other ways to block Alberta's access to tidewater? Two wrongs don't make a right and the Premier made a bad decision - as if Kenney agreeing with her doesn't speak loudly enough.

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This decision has worse consequences for Alberta than it does for BC.  I understand that something needed to be done but we had the rule of law on our side.  We had the constitution on our side.  Now, we have become petty.  That's not what I want from my government - populism be damned.  We stand to lose a lot more over infighting.

The fact of the matter is that the pipeline is ALREADY in the ground.  It has been there for over 50 years.  A fifty year old pipeline is going to be upgraded to 2017 standards and BC is opposing that for what reason?  I mean seriously.  Do the residents of BC prefer the old one?  Because it's already there.  Kinder Morgan is doing you a favour by upgrading it; why are you on board with the government holding that up?  Newer technology, the ability to replace old, worn parts; how do you lose?  

If you fly out of #YVR, you are relying on fuel shipped through that pipeline.  The world still needs oil and BC still uses it.  The fact of the matter is, BC, that without those pipelines, you are just as landlocked as our oil is - you aren't getting out without what's shipped through those pipes.  

The Wildcard

So far this week, two notable speeches about the economic outlook for Alberta have been given. The first was by Todd Hirsch and the second was by Brad Ferguson.  Neither of them were too optimistic but Todd Hirsch mentioned something in particular: the political wildcards.

Obviously, our geographic proximity to the United States gives us Trump.  While campaigning, Trump claimed he wanted to get a better deal for the U.S. out of NAFTA but what would that mean for Canada?  Trump is a businessman.  So if we focus on the business, we see these numbers for Canada:

"U.S. goods and services trade with Canada totaled an estimated $662.7 billion in 2015. Exports were $337.3 billion; imports were $325.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade surplus with Canada was $11.9 billion in 2015." 

 And these for Mexico:

"U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $583.6 billion in 2015. Exports were $267.2 billion; imports were $316.4 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was -$49.2 billion in 2015." 

 The U.S. spends more money in Mexico than Mexico spends in the U.S.  The opposite is true in Canada.  Does this mean we can relax?  Probably not and here's why; if the U.S. were to greatly reduce their imports from Canada, the Canadian economy would plummet. Canada can't just hope for the best with that level of risk. On the other hand, if Trump follows through with his punitive efforts against Mexico, Canada could become the only nation in the world with direct access (and possibly still free trade?) to the United States.

Essentially, Trump has the power, literally, to make or break the Canadian economy.  So how can Alberta help?  Hirsch and Ferguson both pointed to entrepreneurs and Hirsch punctuated his speech with a story about wallpaper cleaner (it gets better).  In the 1930's, Noah McVicker started a soap business.  When tough times hit, they managed to repurpose the soap into a wallpaper cleaner.  Technological advances in natural gas heating (rather than coal) and vinyl wallpaper brought the company near forcible closure again and they managed to repurpose their product a third time; into Play-Doh.  The moral of the story is that Alberta's economy does not have to go down when tough times arrive; we might just need to repurpose our focus to meet the changing needs.

D.