Notley's Pipe Dream Come True - Politically Speaking

When Trudeau announced the federal government would be purchasing Trans Mountain, few were shocked.  After all, Notley had said the provincial government would consider investing after Kinder Morgan ceased non-essential spending back in April.  Conservatives are saying there is no reason to celebrate because private investment was chased away.  Throughout Alberta's oil-drilling history however, and Canada's as well, the federal and provincial governments have both invested in natural resource development.

Most notably, Peter Lougheed invested in Suncor in the 70's and Trudeau Sr. started Petro-Canada.  The Suncor investment paid out not only to the government of Alberta as an investor but continues to do so today through royalties, taxes and job creation.  Petro-Canada was eventually sold for $6 billion.  Even so, the Conservatives are not happy.

Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

The word "failure" has been thrown around a lot since yesterday morning.  While consistently calling on the federal government to "enforce the rule of law", Conservative politicians deliberately ignored the court challenges from the B.C. government which also fall under "rule of law".  Sound bites are better to feed the masses with but you know the old saying "actions speak louder than a grassroots guarantee".

The federal government opted for their best chance of developing the pipeline; Crown immunity.  A private company is not immune to legal challenges but Crown immunity allows the federal government paramountcy over other levels of government.  As owner of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the federal government will have the ability to truly exercise its authority where Kinder Morgan could have been held up indefinitely by continuous court challenges from B.C.; or as Jason Kenney so eloquently stated "death by delay".

There were also accusations of "corporate welfare" but the federal government is currently seeking investors for the project.  The Alberta government has also made a pledge of up to $2 billion dollars in the event of cost overruns but Notley made it clear that if the Alberta government contributes any money to the pipeline, it will be in the form of an equity stake; not a "gift". 

Politically speaking, both Notley and Trudeau can celebrate although the federal Liberals will very likely take a hit both in BC and Quebec.  Though he is often accused of "ignoring" Alberta, Trudeau spent a lot of political capital for Alberta's economy.  As much as the Conservative opposition at both levels of government know the pipeline needs to be built, for them, it is an unwelcome development.

At the federal level, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has taken the bold position that Trudeau's decision "failed B.C.".   Personally, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see if Alberta's Conservatives will follow suit.  While Kenney frequently called Trudeau Notley's "good friend" while the pipeline was being held up it is apparently better to make friends than enemies - politically speaking.

Alberta NDP - Time to Cut the Cord?

The federal NDP has been making life difficult for the Alberta NDP since they formed government in 2015.  From the introduction of the LEAP Manifesto at the federal NDP Convention held in Edmonton in 2016 the federal party has been nothing but trouble for the provincial party; and that doesn't look like it's about to change.

The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Yesterday, federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced BC has his support in the Trans Mountain dispute.  Certainly, from a political point of view, support for the federal party is much stronger in BC than it can ever hope to be in Alberta.  This wasn't an announcement without thought; the parent party chose a side between the warring sibling Premiers.

Having a federal counterpart can be both a benefit and a curse.  In terms of support, visibility and credibility, such as with the CPC in Alberta and the Liberals in the east, having a federal counterpart endorse a provincial candidate can be a huge benefit.  If a provincial candidate can access an existing voter base, there is also a greater likelihood of success.

Take, for instance, Devin Dreeshen's candidacy for the UCP in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election.  His father, Earl Dreeshen, was first elected in 2008 to represent the CPC in the federal riding of Red Deer-Mountainview.  The family name is a likely boon but there is also an existing base of support consisting of door knockers, donors and a current list of phone numbers and email addresses of probable voters.  In politics, there are few things more valuable.

In the NDP's case, at least in Alberta, their federal ties would best be described as a curse, as the opposition in the Legislature cannot help but gleefully mention at least a few times a week.  Now Singh and the federal NDP have officially washed their hands of both Alberta and its governing party.  The Alberta NDP can no longer ignore the fact that their connection to the federal NDP is a liability.

On the ground, few would disagree that Rachel Notley won the 2015 election in spite of her affiliation with the federal NDP and not because of it. The party's provincial convention should be coming up soon and maybe the big question for the membership should be whether they would support the ND's cutting the cord and making their own way in the world.  It certainly appears they're being forced to do that anyway.

Flip Flops and Prairie Oysters

Premier Notley is between a rock and a hard place for the next seven days. Her decision to forego attendance at the Western Premier's Conference this week "to focus on the pipeline" has received mixed reviews.  Kenney, whose caucus has run from the Legislature an incredible 12 times this year to avoid debates on Bill 9, the "bubble zone" legislation, accused the Premier of "hiding" from BC Premier Horgan.  Others said she was doing the right thing by focusing on priorities for the province first.  You can't please everyone, especially when they don't seem to know what they want.

After originally claiming to support taxpayer dollars being used to invest in the Trans Mountain Expansion, Kenney has changed his position.  As leader of the Opposition with literally no ability to actually make decisions (or be involved in discussions), he can say whatever he wants; no matter how inconsistent. But perhaps it was the less than subtle jibe from his former caucus mate, Michelle Rempel that made him realize the error of his ways.

Official communications from the Premier's office have stated that the Premier's focus is on Kinder Morgan and Trans Mountain, but one article claims to have an inside scoop on the *real* reason for her decision: BC would not agree to a pre-written communique regarding market access for resources.  According to the article, the Premier announced she would not attend the conference afterward.

With only a week left until the Kinder Morgan deadline, BC's reference case is still before the court.  After unanimous approval of Bill 12, which gives the Minister of Energy final say on what flows through the Trans Mountain pipeline, BC filed a statement of claim against the legislation.  Currently, the pipeline carries multiple products to BC including diluted bitumen, fuel and diesel fuel.

One suggestion was that Bill 12 would give the Government of Alberta power to stop all fuel shipments through the pipeline and increase the amount of oil shipped instead.  Shipping products by rail and truck are both slower and more expensive and would likely further increase fuel costs in BC without "turning off the taps" (which would be unconstitutional).

Regardless of whether the Official Opposition agrees with the Government's actions, their impotence is not necessarily a bad thing.  While Kenney has claimed the Premier is simply following his "lead", he has the enviable ability to pretend otherwise if it benefits him.  When you don't actually have to stand by your word, the world is truly your prairie oyster.

Unpopular Opinion: Premier Notley Got it Wrong

In a stunningly bad move by the Alberta NDP, Premier Rachel Notley held a live presser today and announced the Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission would immediately stop importing BC wine.  This is in addition to the Alberta government ceasing talks with BC to import electricity from the Site C Dam last week.  Jason Kenney has been egging this on from the sidelines for over a year and the NDP finally took the bait.  But Kenney missed the opportunity when he agreed, albeit backhandedly, with the Premier's decision.

Entering into a trade war with the closest port we have access to seems like a bad idea on most days

hellobc.com

but it feels worse as the Alberta economy is still hiking out of a recession. We don't need a trade war. The Alberta-Saskatchewan license plate debacle was bad enough and that was pretty lame compared to this. No matter what happens from this point, BC still holds has checkmate; they can delay the pipeline expansion while they commission environmental impact assessments. 

While BC NDP holds off "big oil" with their millions or billions of dollars keeping them afloat, Premier Notley struck back at small and medium-sized businesses and "family farms".  In response, BC is looking into how they can retaliate (there's a reason society finally accepted the logical fallacy of that "eye for an eye" thing).  Sure, this might be a popular response from a Premier but it's not smart.  What happens if BC restaurants do decide to stop serving Alberta Beef?  What happens if they decide to get on board with those who oppose the pipeline?  What happens if they find other ways to block Alberta's access to tidewater? Two wrongs don't make a right and the Premier made a bad decision - as if Kenney agreeing with her doesn't speak loudly enough.

kindermorgan.com

This decision has worse consequences for Alberta than it does for BC.  I understand that something needed to be done but we had the rule of law on our side.  We had the constitution on our side.  Now, we have become petty.  That's not what I want from my government - populism be damned.  We stand to lose a lot more over infighting.

The fact of the matter is that the pipeline is ALREADY in the ground.  It has been there for over 50 years.  A fifty year old pipeline is going to be upgraded to 2017 standards and BC is opposing that for what reason?  I mean seriously.  Do the residents of BC prefer the old one?  Because it's already there.  Kinder Morgan is doing you a favour by upgrading it; why are you on board with the government holding that up?  Newer technology, the ability to replace old, worn parts; how do you lose?  

If you fly out of #YVR, you are relying on fuel shipped through that pipeline.  The world still needs oil and BC still uses it.  The fact of the matter is, BC, that without those pipelines, you are just as landlocked as our oil is - you aren't getting out without what's shipped through those pipes.  

Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The BC Election: A Day of Reckoning

BC Premier Christy Clark

May 9th is a day of reckoning for Alberta pipelines as we await the results of the BC election.  It's been a difficult few months trying to balance between what may be best for the province (not Christy Clark) and what will be best for Alberta (Christy Clark).  Alberta desperately needs greater access to tidewater and Christy Clark has (after some extortion-like negotiations) agreed to an expansion of the Kinder Morgan line.  However, Clark may not be the premier after today.

John Horgan, leader of the BC NDP has officially opposed the expansion.  Rachel Notley met with Horgan back in December and he was not swayed by her argument.   In response, Notley banned elected officials and staff from the Alberta NDP caucus from assisting in the BC NDP campaign.  This is yet a further rift in a previously unshakable circle of support from the Alberta NDP since forming government.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley

During the federal convention back in 2015, Notley found herself on the defensive against the federal party when the Leap Manifesto document was introduced and won a vote to be discussed by the party over the following two years. Speaking of which, those two years must almost be up by now.  Who would have thought that an NDP win would cause so much tension between them?  The NDP is renowned for their organization.  They support one another at the municipal, provincial and federal levels.  Supporters travel to different provinces to help the party campaign.  They were a very tight knit group; until the Alberta NDP formed government.

Now, the Alberta NDP are in the unlikely position of having to hope their friends, supporters and colleagues do not win.  Add to this the trumped up call by the Wildrose to fire an Oilsands Advisory Group member for endorsing the BC NDP, and they've had a pretty bad month.  But it could get worse.

John Horgan, BC NDP Leader

If Clark loses tonight, Horgan may make things difficult for Alberta.  Back in September of 2016, Horgan suggested he could be persuaded with regard to the pipeline.  In December he was not persuaded by Rachel Notley. In February of 2017, he said he doesn't "think Kinder Morgan is in the best interest" of BC but also (the Liberals) want to put (him) in a box saying 'no'" (to the pipeline).  Now there is always the possibility that Horgan will work with Notley if he becomes Premier but it is obvious there will be further tensions a party like the NDP may not be able to handle.

The changes that could come from the election of the BC NDP are not just related to economy and trade; these are very personal relationships.  Under normal circumstances, feuding Premiers normally don't have that and it could make a sticky situation much worse if they do.  And what if the BC NDP lose?  I think it's safe to say there's no way the AB NDP are looking forward to the results.

Update:

Andrew Weaver,
BC Green Party Leader

It became apparent at around 12:30 am that the profile of the third party leader needed to be included. Andrew Weaver, Leader of the BC Green Party, retained his seat and also added two seats to the legislature.  Because of the current seat projection (which could change due to very close races and the counting of the absentee ballots as well as the advanced poll votes), Weaver and his caucus now hold the balance of power if the Liberals and NDP maintain an even split on government business.  With a seat projection of 42-42-3 for the Liberals, NDP and Greens respectively, Weaver's views become very important.  As could be expected, he is not in favour of the Kinder Morgan expansion.  Does this mean Notley, Alberta and the pipeline will have more issues?

With the Greens elevated to a position of, let's face it, power, they are also in a position to leverage their votes for things they want.  With any luck, this will also put them into a position of making certain concessions. On this, Alberta can only hope.