Is Kenney Fighting For or Against Alberta Oil?

The political theatre playing out in politics does offer one silver lining: there's plenty to talk about.  However, there is a downside and right now, Kenney's theatrics may end up helping John Horgan receive the provincial jurisdiction he so desperately wants to be able to limit the amount of oil shipped from BC's ports.  Thanks to Kenney and the UCP's continued grandstanding on the federal carbon tax issue, they are demonstrating a clear defiance that only bolsters the BC NDP's position against the Trans Mountain Expansion.

The federal government approved the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) in 2016 and has repeatedly said the pipeline is "in the national interest".  The federal carbon tax implementation has been billed as a way to purchase 'social license' and this term has been mangled so many times it's less clear for whom the social license was intended.  While a number of people claim it was to buy acceptance from environmentalists, Notley's support for the federal carbon tax was clearly to gain the social license from the federal government for approval.

Of the opposition parties, the Alberta Party was in favour of a consumer carbon tax back in 2015 but both Greg Clark and David Swann voted against the NDP format.  It just makes sense to support the federal government when the province needs federal support in return.  As Kenney makes his contradictory play in support of both federal and provincial jurisdiction, he helps make Horgan's case for provincial jurisdiction in BC.

In working the narrative to paint Alberta's NDP and the federal Liberals as "best friends", the UCP furthers this narrative of supporting the federal government as a bad thing to score political points in Alberta.  What is it doing for BC?  Yet again, this narrative only helps the anti-approval sentiment in the province.  Kenney is playing both sides of this debate and if he is successful it could mean the absolute denial of increased access for Alberta oil.  He'll blame the Liberals and the NDP but this is on him and his desperate attempt to fuel anger for votes.

All actions have consequences.  As Jason Kenney continues to grandstand on the matter of federal jurisdiction regarding the carbon tax, he is fighting for the federal government to concede jurisdiction over provincial matters.  This is precisely what the BC NDP is fighting for.  If Kenney succeeds, it will set a precedent for other provinces to defy the federal government's decisions including the one he claims to be fighting for.

Back to Our Future

As we head into the final leg of what feels like an American campaign season, people have been asking to see platforms before they vote for the leader of the United Conservative Party.  Most of those people likely won't be voting in the UCP leadership race but that doesn't make the question any less important... just less likely to be answered.

An interesting point was brought up today: are businesses likely to make decisions based on a platform without substance like the one Jason Kenney is touting?  I'll admit my initial reaction was to laugh.  Businesses, especially large ones, are not a one-person operation; they have boards and shareholders to answer to.  However, after careful consideration, this may be one of those circumstances where the lack of a platform is going to be an issue.

Photo credit: Pressfortruth.ca

To begin with, the only unknown in the UPC leadership race is Doug Schweitzer and he's actually put together a fairly informative platform for businesses and individuals regarding taxes and regulations.  Both Kenney and Jean, and even Fildebrandt if he actually runs, are known in the political circles of Alberta conservatives. Certainly few have forgotten the Hail Mary from the 5 CEOs a few days before the 2015 election; Alberta businesses and jobs were at stake if voters elected an NDP government.  

Mr. Kenney managed to raise over $500,000 prior to October 1, 2016 from 2,129 donors (which is an interesting number considering he only managed to earn 1,113 votes from the "membership").  The final tally for his expenses for the leadership race was just under $1.5 million which means he raised almost another million during the five and a half months of the actual leadership race.  While many might look at it as a shady deal, his lack of policy and platform speaks to a lot of people because he says he's a conservative and he is pro-free-enterprise.   Never mind the fact that most Albertans and, honestly, all other political parties in Alberta (even the NDP) are as well.

The narrative, though, has been set and is entrenched in political discourse.  The phrase "job killing carbon tax" has been around since 2012, coined by federal conservatives against the NDP.   It worked for Kenney's team then and he has found a very willing audience in Alberta to regurgitate the same talking point.  It doesn't seem to matter to his supporters that a federal carbon tax will be implemented by 2018 if provinces don't already have one.  Add to that narrative the fact that a number of high emission industries in Alberta have been paying a price on carbon since 2007, and you have yet another red herring.  No one needs to be deceived by their political representatives but the onus is on the individual to learn the truth.

People often look for someone to blame when times are tough.  Change is difficult for a lot of people, especially those who expected their careers to take them through the rest of their lives.  The future is not the same as they thought 40 years ago and Alberta has an opportunity to keep up or be left behind.  The UCP may be the political party of new but their plans and ideas are years behind the rest of the world.  The question is: which direction will the voters in this province take us? 

How Alberta's Carbon Tax May Have Made Gas Cheaper

Rick Perry is not an economist and neither am I, just so you know.  I was, however, paying attention in junior high when I was taught about 'supply and demand' (note: I was educated in the Canadian public school system which is pretty darned good).  I also live in Alberta which is only just starting to get its bearings back after a nasty recession caused by... an increase in the global supply of oil... which caused the price of oil to drop.  It's therefore entirely possible I have a better perspective of supply and demand than the Energy Secretary of the United States of America (I'm so sorry, America).

In what was termed a "Canada Day Miracle", gas prices did not increase as Canadians headed into a long weekend.  Not only did they not increase at all during the week, gas prices are at a seven year low... because the supply of available gas is higher than the demand.  When there is more supply than demand, prices go down; it's what the "law of supply and demand" is (again, I'm sorry, America).

When the Alberta NDP announced they would implement a carbon tax in an effort to get people thinking about their personal contribution to emissions, there was an uproar in Alberta.  To be fair, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than most citizens.  Somehow, there's a belief that Alberta is so rich we shouldn't have to pay taxes at all:

Fall 1998:  The government surveyed Albertans about their fiscal priorities in the "Talk it up. Talk it out." survey. Albertans gave increasing savings in the Heritage Fund an importance rating of 19.2 per cent, behind eliminating the debt, reducing taxes and increasing spending in priority areas. 

                                                     - Alberta Government, Ministry of Finance

In any case, Albertans were angry; still are.  I had a multitude of conversations with Kenney-Wildrose-esque conservative supporters about how they could not, under any circumstances, reduce their gas use.  Others said they would take the bus to avoid paying a carbon tax... (you can't make this stuff up).  The point of the carbon tax, I believe, was not to get everyone to reduce their use but to encourage those who could to do so.

As previously mentioned, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than anyone else.  There are also
a lot of Albertans who are concerned about climate change.  To my basic understanding of supply and demand, I think the carbon tax may have reduced the cost of gas for those who actually need it most.

Simplistically speaking, if people who didn't need to use as much gas stopped doing so, it would reduce the demand.  If the demand goes down, those who actually need to travel for work would reap the benefits of a lower price.  Again, I'm not an economist, but in my opinion, the introduction of a carbon tax in Alberta might have actually reduced both environmental and gas costs to everyone.