Another Week, Another Move Toward Unity

It feels like "hurry up and wait".  On the left we have the governing NDP making good use of their time and stature holding meet and greets.  We have the Alberta Liberal Party's new leader David Khan who has begun an "87 constituency tour", Jason Kenney on a similar path to garner support for Unite the Right and Brian Jean has been reaching out as well.  Derek Fildebrandt has also stated he will join the race if the parties merge.  The former Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose members will vote on unity July 22, 2017.

Meanwhile, the Unite the Centre initiative has enjoyed a publicity boost from the acquisition of Katherine O'Neill, former President of the Progressive Conservative Party.  O'Neill has recently accepted the position of Director of Alberta Together, a political action committee that, according to their website was "started to help shape and support a growing fearless, focused and forward thinking centrist political voice" in Alberta. "It is a not-for-profit organization that puts public service, pragmatic centrist principles and province-building at the top of its agenda."

http://albertatogether.ca 

Back in April, the first Unite the Centre meeting was held in Red Deer.  People were invited based on the organizers' knowledge of the invitees' political leanings.  Each of the invitees were asked to reach out to others within their communities to bring as many voices to the table as possible.

At that time Kerry Cundal was running for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party and though she did not speak on behalf of the party, she attended.  Had she won the leadership, she would have known what these conversations were about and how or if her party could benefit from taking part.

The NDP's connection with its federal party will continue to be a tough shadow to cast off. With the latest announcement from the federal NDP leadership candidate Jagmeet Singh that he and his party will oppose both Kinder Morgan and Energy East, the AB NDP are left holding a bag. As much as they would like to move centre, their federal counterparts seem intent upon making them look like Greens on steroids. Add to that the slim-to-none chance of Wildrose or Kenney's party or the UCP quieting their socially conservative, death threat making, immigrant hating, refugee bashing, homophobic members to appeal to a centrist base... and you have just two parties in the centre.

As O'Neill said on Ryan Jespersen's show last week, "there are two parties in the centre; the Liberals and the Alberta Party... what is the best option for 2019?"  Greg Clark will be in the room but I believe David Khan is restricted to maintaining the status quo.  Seems we'll find out where the conversation leads on Saturday.

If you would like to be part of these discussions, or just want to have lunch and listen, tickets are available for the Alberta Together event on June 24, 2017.  The event is scheduled to run from 11:00 am (registration opens at 9:30) until 3:00 pm at the Black Knight Inn in Red Deer.

The Fight for the Centre

In the past week some Alberta Liberal Party members were able to vote for their choice of Liberal Party leader.  I say "some" because there were a number of disqualified voters. In the end, 77% of registered party members (Almost 1700) voted.  It was probably a tough choice.  David Khan and Kerry Cundal are probably the most likable and genuine individuals to face off in Alberta politics in a very long time.

Image Credit: thoughtundermined.com 

David wanted to rebuild the Liberal brand in Alberta.  He wanted to put in the work to remind people why the Alberta Liberal Party was the oldest party in the province.  He wanted to make the Alberta Liberals great again.  Kerry wanted a mandate to build a stronger centre.  She thought it was time to stop fighting for the same voter base in the middle of the political spectrum.  She said now was the time to work together with the other centrist party, the Alberta Party, and the politically homeless Progressive Conservatives who did not want to be part of a Jason Kenney - Wildrose "frankenparty".  The result was David Khan with 54% of the vote and Kerry Cundal with 46%; David won by 133 votes from a total of 1697 votes cast.

No doubt Kerry was disappointed.  As she boarded her flight overseas, I imagined she was feeling down.  It was a whirlwind of a campaign; six months worth of campaigning crammed into two.  She and David traveled the province meeting people for coffees, breakfasts, lunches, dinners, drinks and attending events; some of them together (they're also friends outside of the political arena).   Which is harder on a candidate?  Losing by a little or a lot?  When it's close you think there must have been something more you could have done; one more day of phone calls, one more trip to the other end of the province or sold a hundred and fifty more memberships to people who wouldn't be disqualified... who knows.

That was June 4th and the campaign hangover had to be pretty bad on the 5th, but time heals all wounds.  On June 6, David sent out an email reiterating his pledge to rebuild and re-energize the party and asked those who supported both him and Kerry to join together and work towards 2019.  If Kerry had some of the fight knocked out of her on Sunday it was back with a vengeance by Tuesday.

The email was titled "Let's continue this discussion".  She thanked the volunteers, supporters and the ALP members for being involved in the process.  She thanked those who were willing to think outside the box.  Then she reached out to half of the registered Liberal voters.  "46% of you were interested in hearing about what it would mean to see cooperation with other centrists and progressives in Alberta.  That discussion is ongoing and I want to personally invite you... to be a part of it."

The next meeting to discuss Alberta Together is happening in Red Deer on June 24th, 2017 from 11:00 am until 3:00 pm.  Tickets can be purchased here and it is open to anyone who wishes to be a part of this movement.  Kerry even invited David to take part; after all, almost half of the voting members chose to support a different view.  David knows he will have a lot of work ahead of him and the fight for the centre is just beginning.

The NDP and UCP would like people to think they are the only choices in 2019.   This works for both of them but does it work for Albertans?  The majority of Albertans voted PC for 44 years.  The NDP is trying to move to the centre.  The UCP could try to move into the centre as well but with Kenney's voting history and the Wildrose's ... well, Wildrose-iness, it won't be easy for them.  So who does that leave as an option?  It could be the Liberals but somehow having a majority in the federal government hasn't helped their brand here in Alberta.

Rachel Notley addressed a crowd in Calgary on June 1st asking "people who believe just as much in being progressive as they do in being conservative" to consider the NDP as a "pragmatic, progressive home." Greg Clark joined Ryan Jespersen on 630 CHED on June 7 and he referred to the influx of new members the Alberta Party has seen over the past couple of months. "There's definitely momentum in the centre and it's heading our way" he said.  Be that as it may, the only parties not aiming for the centrist voters are the highly contentious conservatives.

Call it arrogance, call it disdain; the conservatives don't want anyone who can't call themselves an absolute conservative.  The NDP, Alberta Party and Liberals are opening their doors to progressive conservatives.  That will leave three choices on the left of the right and one party, if the Kenney-Wildrose supporters surrender to the call for power, on the right.  And what will happen then?  Will there be enough of a split between the left and centre parties to allow Kenney-Wildrose to form government?  Anything's possible.

REMINDER: Members of the Wildrose Party must have been registered two weeks prior to the July 22 AGM to vote for what they think will be best for Alberta's future. The PC Party needs 51% to vote for unity and the Wildrose needs 75%.  Wildrose memberships can be purchased for $10.

The Golden Opportunity with UCP

The backroom deal-making that wasn’t supposed to happen with a Wildrose PC merger seems to be exactly what was needed to bring the parties into agreement.  Kenney had been persona non grata after the Gay-Straight Alliance media backlash in March but resurfaced in BC stumping for the Liberal party in April.  As the BC election resulted in a reduction of Liberal seats to a tie with the NDP and created a shockingly powerful Green Party swing vote, it would appear his presence did more harm than good.  One can only hope he finds similar success in the 2019 election.

Back in the public eye in Alberta, Jason Kenney's highly anticipated and subsequently disappointing non-announcement on May 5, 2017 seemed to suggest there might not be enough agreement to build a unity plan after all.  The Unity Discussion Group was formed a mere 6 weeks earlier with unity backers from the former PC party (and one person who declined to take part) and elected individuals from the Wildrose.  There were rumblings that the discussions were not going well between the parties and that it was rooted in a general mistrust of the other side.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

Fast forward to May 18 where the unlikely future colleagues announced they have found a way forward to create the United Conservative Party, or UCP.  While there may have been some hard work on behalf of the discussion group, it sounds as if it was Brian Jean who needed the final nudge. Nine of his MLAs reportedly confronted him and said they would cross the floor to join the Kenney-led PC's, making them the official opposition, unless he accepted the agreement.  

However they managed it, there is finally some movement for the two parties who would like to blend together into one slightly larger Wildrose party with Wildrose values, policies and, the big win, some former PC supporters.  If that doesn't cause you to swoon,  Alberta will be treated to yet another leadership race involving Jason Kenney this year as the parties have agreed to hold the leadership election on October 28, 2017.  

While the parties have made a small move in the “right” direction, hundreds, perhaps even thousands of current members are still going to have to vote for unity.  The former PCs require 51% of their membership to approve the agreement and the Wildrose needs 75. Add to this the simultaneous messaging of the Wildrose members being promised their party, policies and values will remain, and the former PCs are being promised they will defeat Notley's government.  So, win/win... I guess?  

There’s still hope; if Kenney has taught us anything since entering Alberta politics it's that anyone can buy a membership and vote; even (especially?) if you don’t support the party. 

We all have an idea of what would happen if they unite but what if the current or future membership did not support unity?  Kenney appeals to a faction of the Wildrose base so they could continue to bleed votes without a unity agreement. Kenney has a well-known track record of not supporting human rights for all and is an easy target on the subject.  Did I mention that anyone can buy a membership and vote for what they believe will be the best outcome for the people of this province?  Members must be registered 21 days prior to voting.  Just saying. 

War of the Roses

When Jason Kenney was elected as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, 2017, he was elected on a platform to Unite Alberta, or Conservatives, or the Right, depending whose event you attended and in which geographical location.  Since his election, we have seen the formation of a group of right-leaning PC and Wildrose members who were to tackle this business of unity.  The most recent official update stated the group was having discussions and would later update on those discussions.   It doesn't appear that much is being accomplished in that area.  Or is it?

On Sunday night, the rumour mill started running.  Word was that there were 5 sitting PC MLAs (David Rodney, Prab Gill, Ric McIver, Richard Gotfried and Mike Ellis) and 5 WRP MLAs who were going to form an independent caucus in the legislature on Monday afternoon.  I reached out to someone I thought would know and he told me my grapevine was over-excited.  As we now know, it didn't happen on Monday but word is still strong that the plan is going forward.

Credit: Global News

On Tuesday I attended the New Conservative Dinner hosted by Scott Gilmore.  Having attended a few sessions in the very recent past asking similar questions (what is important to you? how should we be moving forward? why are you unhappy with the current state of politics?) the only change was the attendees.  I've participated in discussions with Liberals, Centrists and Moderates.  I've even had lunch with a nutty Wildroser who, unfortunately, confirmed every reason why I could never support that party.

There was a mix of people at this event and that makes things interesting.  One gentleman said he didn't quite understand why these discussions were taking place right now.   Why not wait until after the federal leadership race was over?  My best guess is that it's because people are engaged right now; after the leadership race, they may pack up or disengage.  I agree that the time for these conversations is now.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of people who complained their MP didn't seem to represent them.  The majority of people in the room self-disclosed as card carrying CPC members with a show of hands when Scott asked.  The leadership race has been incredibly divisive with anti-Canadian values and anti-everything that most people realize is the new normal.  Many agreed with a statement from one woman who said "the country has evolved; the CPC has not".  And that's what many progressive conservatives are currently saying to the PC/WR party.

Evolution is not generally a Conservative strong point and that's literally a definition; conserving tradition, processes, beliefs, and so on.  Jason Kenney represents that description to a tee.  So is it any wonder that polls are suggesting an overall preference for Brian Jean to lead the united party?  In comparison, Brian Jean is more moderate than Jason Kenney can ever hope to pretend to be.  Brian Jean would have the opportunity to keep some of those centre-right leaning members.

The situation is remarkably similar to the federal party.  While Michael Chong is the favourite for the Progressive Conservatives of old, and while he is moderate enough to actually have a shot at stealing votes from Trudeau; it's unlikely he will win because "he's either first on your ballot or last".  Bernier will not be last on a PC ballot because Trost, Leitch or Alexander will take that spot (the CPC use a ranked ballot where voters place their first, second, third down to 10th pick) meaning he will likely outrank Chong by being higher up on the ballot than last.

Logically, it fails.  The majority has spoken and said they would support Jean over Kenney.  So the tidbit that was dropped off to me on Tuesday makes little sense.  In a leadership race Jean would win unless another Wildroser entered that race to split the vote; someone under the Wildrose banner but who has always been on Team Kenney.  That was the tidbit... power over people.  No surprise there.

The Legend of Robert McDavid

Robert McDavid was the supposed Communications Director for the Wildrose on Campus (WROC) at the University of Calgary, according to the executives Keean Bexte and Don MacLeod (who have both since resigned their posts).  On March 6, 2017, an email was circulated inviting members to a screening of "The Red Pill" sponsored in part by the WROC and Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) Youth.  The subject line of that email was "Feminism is Cancer", an apparent nod to the "alt-right" poster boy Milo Yiannopolous.  According to Bexte, McDavid was fired after the email went public.

Jason Herring of The Gauntlet took on the task of trying to find McDavid.  WROC executives claimed McDavid was a first-year student in Engineering but the Office of the Registrar at the U of C could not find a student registered under that name.  Herring also tried to reach two McDavid's listed in the public directory but was unsuccessful.  Although no one can seem to find this person, "evidence" of his existence has been popping up in the least surprising places.

On March 8, 2017 Herring again reported on the story.  At that time, he had discovered a Facebook profile for "Robert McDavid" created on March 7, 2017 (since removed for violation of FB community standards).  The above screenshot of an account created this month showed up on Twitter last night.  The two accounts following the egg are an ardent Jason Kenney supporter and an account that performs essentially the same role as the former; disagreeing with, or "fact checking" those who disagree with Kenney.

Bexte was also a Jason Kenney supporting delegate at the upcoming PC Leadership convention.  Bexte... founder of the Wildrose on Campus... was a PC Youth delegate.

Let that simmer amidst the claims of Wildrose members infiltrating the PC Party to elect Jason Kenney...

Is this "just politics"?  Is this the politics our youth are being taught? Modeled?  That it's okay to make false political plays to get what you want and if something goes wrong you just "blame" and "fire" a non-existent member?  Maybe this kid was planning a future in politics.  Tell me, what is school like for him right now?  What does his future hold?

His name is associated with "Feminism is Cancer", "blaming a non-existent staffer" and being asked to resign from a delegate position.  And for what?  If there is someone else behind this little charade, they should be taking full responsibility from this kid because that's what he is: a kid.  A kid whose name, and shame, will not be forgotten in political circles.

D.

Zero Days Without Incident

It was a simple task. Send out an email invite to the screening of a movie that is controversial enough to get their name in the paper and have everyone talking about them. Ideally, they were probably hoping for a censorship backlash that could have resulted in a "free speech" fight with the University. 

That's what could have happened when they hit "send" but it's not what happened. Instead, the Wildrose faction of University of Calgary students found themselves in the centre of another debate; Women's Equality.  While there are numerous ways to get your name in the paper, this is not the favoured route, even for the Wildrose. However, as Derek Fildebrandt so eloquently stated "Hyper-sensitive, politically correct, victim as virtue culture is creating a leadership class of wimps." (Nov 12, 2016).  Though Fildebrandt insists he is not a social conservative, it's the company you keep.

I mean, in 2012 when the Wildrose did not form government after so many polls said they would, many pointed to the "Lake of Fire" story and claimed it contributed to their loss.  In April of 2015, Rick Strankman, MLA for Drumheller-Stettler took some heat for staying out of the kitchen when a "volunteer" circulated an invitation asking attendees to "Bring Your Wife's Pie".

Add to this the new Maxime Bernier meme featuring double-downer Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt and referencing the "red pill" which he circulated yesterday and you have a full-blown blow back. Especially when the tweeter of said meme claims to have no knowledge of the more modern interpretation of "red pill". If a reader is so inclined, they can google it - I won't link to such garbage.

For a political party that has seen their fair (or unfair, if you swing that way) share of controversy since becoming the Wildrose, this doesn't help.  Personally, I don't see this doing any harm to their brand.  This is, after all, their brand.

And if Jason Kenney is successful in winning the PC leadership, dissolving the PC party, getting Wildrose to agree to dissolve their party, and creating a new conservative party, people will forget the Wildrose Party of Alberta ever existed. Which, really, is nothing but beneficial for them in a modern world.

A Progressive Dilemma

This morning Richard Starke, one of four candidates for PC leadership, announced that his plan for "unity" is to work with the Wildrose Party to beat the NDP in 2019.  This has been referred to as a "non-plan" and a "hail Mary".  Some have speculated that this plan would involve more backroom deals like the one that led to the 2014 floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs, including the leader of the party, to the PCs.  For example would certain candidates only run in certain ridings?  Keep the PC candidates out of rural areas for example?  Or would they just scratch each other's backs more once one of them became government?

In any case, people stopped talking about it entirely once Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose party, came out with his own announcement that he was also on board with uniting the parties and he would run for leader of that united conservative party.  Personally, I have little faith in Brian Jean having any chance at the leadership role simply because he's jumped onto Kenney's bandwagon.

Now Brian Jean did not say he supported Kenney.  He has also said he has his own idea for uniting the conservatives.  The problem most of us see is that not all conservatives feel at home with all other conservatives. When Lougheed became the leader of a plucky little party that almost literally brought itself back from the dead, there was a term for people who believed in progressive values and fiscal conservatism; Red Tories (which is a mix of liberal (red) and conservative).  These Red Tories still exist today and they are very likely a plentiful bunch, particularly in the urban ridings.

Thomas Lukaszuk appeared with Laurie Blakeman and Mariam Ibrahim on Dinner TV Edmonton tonight to talk politics with Courtney Theriault and he brought up an interesting point.  Very few people believe that Kenney actually managed to get the support he has been claiming from within the PC Party without bringing in some Wildrose faithful.  Lukaszuk said that Kenney is counting those individuals as proof that he has the support of the PCs... but they aren't PC supporters.  Even if Kenney manages to become leader of the party (and it certainly seems likely that he will), there are many progressive-minded conservatives who will not join him in a Wildrose party.

So where, if the proudly progressive conservative party is no more, will these voters go?  While many are pointing to the viability of the Alberta Party as a home for centrists and progressive values with fiscal responsibility considerations... I don't see it happening.

In 2012 the Wildrose party, under the skillful and inspiring leadership of Danielle Smith, was poised to actually be a very strong contender against the PCs.  Rumour has it, they could have formed government.  Except for one thing; a blog post from a candidate that claimed gay people would burn in a "lake of fire".  That story hit the media streams the week before the 2012 election and voters rushed back to the PC party, so they say.

It is my humble opinion that if a conservative party does emerge as some sort of united front, those Red Tories will turn to NDP to stop the rush of social conservatives from taking over government.  In doing so, they will neglect their likely more happy home with the Alberta party until the united conservatives no longer pose an actual threat to their way of life.  But I could be wrong.

D.