Friday 15 September 2017

Protecting Taxpayer Dollars Shouldn't Cost Nenshi the Election

It's not the five CEO's but it is five wealthy gentleman.  Are the Calgary Flames owners negotiating, campaigning for a new mayor of Calgary or are they truly finished with making profit in Alberta?  While Mayor Nenshi is often referred to as "Spendshi" by his political detractors, he was the first to say "no" to tax dollars being used to fund a new arena during a recession in 2016.  Nenshi's popularity has taken a hit over the past couple of years and Calgary's need for an arena seems to have been elevated to an election issue a mere 32 days before the October 16 election.

Private industry has a love-hate relationship with government. Government is responsible for regulations, by-laws, tax collection and spending.  While the former are often considered "unnecessary", "job-killing" and "scaring off investment" the latter, spending, is only considered to be a bad thing if private industry is not somehow benefiting.

Photo credit: Jeff MacIntosh/The Canadian Press
The initial proposal for the new arena, Calgary Next, asked the city (aka: residents and taxpayers) to match the owners' personal investment.  In an investment, if one puts money toward a profit-yielding venture, they often negotiate an ownership agreement or at the very least, a percentage of profits in return for said investment.  For the city and its taxpayers, the Calgary Next proposal was nothing of the sort.

In addition to loaning Calgary Next a half billion ($240 million in a direct loan and $250 million through a city revitalization loan) and giving them the $200 million they initially requested, Calgary taxpayers would also pay to clean up the contaminated soil on the West Village site which the city believed would bring the total cost of an $890 million proposal to $1.8 billion. For this generosity, Calgary Next would build a public-access field house, pay no future taxes and keep all the profits.  The city, aka Calgary taxpayers would not be considered equal partners in this venture; what the Flames owners proposed was/is literally a hand out.

Jason Markusoff, Calgary resident, journalist and Macleans contributor, wrote that it was unlikely a conservative contender for Mayor would have a better chance of winning if they agreed to use taxpayer dollars to fund the arena but that's exactly what private industry in this province is used to. The election of Mayors Nenshi and Iveson was an indication that people were fed up with the status quo in Alberta.  Many people understand their taxes are meant to pay for things that make their lives and their communities better.  Seeing those tax dollars used to benefit a few million or billionaires didn't sit well with the electorates if the 2015 election of the NDP over the ultra-conservative Wildrose is anything to go by.

Taxpayer dollars are meant to be used to benefit taxpayers.  Public art, for all its controversies, is available to all.  Roads, whether you use them for your own vehicle or take public transit, are available to all. A new arena that will house events at a cost is not available to all; it is available only to those who can afford to attend.  Nenshi was right to say no to the "deal" but if the arena becomes an election issue, and if money really does talk, it could cost him his job.

Saturday 9 September 2017

Kenney vs. Jean: Too Soon to Tell

The polls that made headlines this week were interesting to say the least.  The United Conservative Party still shows a healthy lead over everyone else, no matter who wins the leadership, but Brian Jean leads Jason Kenney by a healthy majority according to a Mainstreet poll. When the PC dynasty fell, to the NDP no less, the shock was felt across the country but also stunned politicos outside of the country.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC
If you've spent time with the election data from 2015, you know there was an anomaly.  Other than the fact that the NDP formed government, you would notice the Progressive Conservatives still managed to earn a lot of votes; over 50,000 more than the Wildrose's 360,511.  Yet the PC's ended up with 11 seats less than the Wildrose's 21.  This simply showed that their votes were cast over a much wider area that did not amount to winning ridings whereas the Wildrose votes were more centralized and managed to gain seats.

NOTE: the following polls surveyed all Albertans as the organizations do not have access to membership lists.

Jason Kenney as UCP leader

ThinkHQ's online poll showed that support for the NDP is stronger with Jason Kenney as leader. As the Metro's Elizabeth Cameron noted, Jason Kenney looks to have equal support from both urban and rural areas while Brian Jean has much greater support from rural. This analysis is what makes things interesting.  Could Jason Kenney as leader end up garnering support in 2019 in the same way Prentice did in 2015?  We can see that support does not guarantee seats.

At Calgary Pride, I spoke with a Calgary resident in a UCP shirt.  I asked him what he was hoping for in the leadership race.  Unsurprisingly, due to the location of our conversation, he said he was voting for Brian Jean.  This was, I admit, exactly what I was hoping to hear because the real question I had was this: "So what will you do if Kenney wins?" I asked. "Will you hold your nose and vote UCP anyway?" He didn't seem to want to answer but I persisted. "No," he finally told me, "I will be in political purgatory."

Jason Kenney, I truly believe, will inspire similar responses from red tories across the province. His lack of consideration for Alberta's LGBTQ2+ community members reeks of indifference if not outright disdain. Though the LGBTQ2+ community may be small in comparison to the Canadian population (and therefore provincial), the number of allies to the community is growing every year. Prentice felt that support when the PC's proposed ridiculous alternatives to Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman's Bill 202 with the "parental rights" foundation of Bill 10. Kenney, for all his purported political savvy, seems determined to further that stance.

Brian Jean as UCP leader

Brian Jean appears to be much more palatable to the general public than Jason Kenney but his detractors are loud. Former Wildrose president and current UCP leadership hopeful Jeff Callaway claimed Brian Jean was too selfish to become leader.  Obsessive political observers know there is no love lost between Jean and Fildebrandt but not everyone is obsessive.  At a Unite the Right town hall Fildebrandt held in his riding of Strathmore Brooks when he was still "considering" a run for UCP leader, one attendee stood up and asked "If you win the leadership, will Jason Kenney support you? Obviously Brian Jean will but can you count on Kenney?"

I fully expect Kenney would publicly throw support behind Brian Jean to ensure a UCP win if Jean became leader.  I actually believe Jean would do the same for Kenney.  There is a big difference between their supporters though.  Kenney tends to woo the religious right and they religiously follow him.  Jean has support from more moderate types because he himself is much more moderate than Kenney. Jean's support of over 50% of Albertans were he to win the leadership to Kenney's less than 40% is telling.  If Fildebrandt is correct and Jean is "not a leader", it stands to reason that people will not follow him if he asks them to support Kenney.

According to a Mainstreet survey released at the beginning of August, the UCP would win an election held at that time but would be shut out of Edmonton, mirroring the results from the above ThinkHQ poll.  Mainstreet's poll though, showed a decrease in support for a Kenney led UCP.  Of those who polled as "undecided" and "voting NDP" the numbers are 21% and 21% respectively if Brian Jean is leader but 28% and 22% if Kenney leads.

While one cannot accurately predict the outcome of an election two years in advance based on today's sentiments, there is a pattern to keep an eye on. Kenney is a social conservative in a province that has moved on.  Jean is a moderate in comparison to Kenney but if he wins the leadership race, he will be compared to an actual moderate like the Alberta Party's Greg Clark and the still likable, if currently unpopular, Premier Notley.  Whoever becomes UCP leader has a lot of time to ruin their chance to form government; in 2012, it only took three days.

Wednesday 6 September 2017

Fundraising, Leadership Races and Jobs

Back in 2015 when the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta launched their leadership race, the entry fee was $50,000.  Last week, two United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, sent out an email requesting donations to raise $75,000 for the leadership entry fee which had yet to be determined.  Friday it was announced that each candidate will only have to come up with $95,000 to run for leader and 21%, or $20,000, is refundable if the candidates operate within the rules.

Jason Kenney raised a reported $1.45 million dollars for his bid to become leader of the Progressive Conservative Association and spent $1.5 million to secure the 1,113 votes which saw him elected as leader. The PC party purportedly had a membership of around 40,000 (that's 2.7%).  A campaign spokesman also claimed an additional $500,000 was raised through a separate entity which would bring the total to just under $2 million dollars.  That number, however, is less than the same spokesman claimed was raised previously. And all during one of the worst recessions Alberta has ever seen. We're getting used to the double-speak, though.

The $300,000 UCP will earn from the four candidates, in addition to the recent release of 7 staff members, should alleviate the caucus budget woes. For all Brian Jean's assurances that "there is no deficit", being $322,000 over budget suggests otherwise. It was an easy mark for Kenney to pounce on.

Yes, it would be hypocritical for Jean to claim he could balance a provincial budget without balancing a caucus budget.  The thing to remember is that as of July 22, 2017, the caucus budget changed. A select few have related the current budgetary issues to the reduction in caucus funds resulting from the party merger.  It is said the budget allotted to Wildrose was reduced by $400,000 as a result; you do the math.

Still, UCP considered asking caucus to use their personal MLA allowances to help reduce the deficit; but that's like raising taxes on citizens to cover spending for gosh sake's. In the end, the UCP found a new revenue stream in the leadership race and cut expenses.  While Jason Kenney would like to blame MLA Brian Jean, it makes as much sense to blame MLA Dave Rodney or MLA Drew Barnes because they aren't leading the UCP either.

Drew Barnes, UCP/Wildrose MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat tweeted "This is more than just caucus deficit.  It is jobs, kid's hockey fees, livelihoods. We can do better". While the UCP promise to reduce government workers (to much fanfare from their supporters) some appear to understand what happens when people lose their jobs. Contrary to popular Wildrose/UCP misconception, individuals working for government are also people who need food, shelter, their job.. and probably aren't cannibals.

Granted, Kenney and friends are trying their best to throw Brian Jean under the bus for having hired people in the first place but this is a different caucus, with a different budget, than what existed before.

One recently fired employee, Cole Kander, detailed his view of the unfairness in a weird "spurned lover"-like post.  Between his fawning over Brian Jean ("a leader I thought walked on water") and his probable genuine sadness at losing his job ("It was everything I wanted, desired and hoped to do with my life."), Kander announced his intention to run for the candidate nomination for the UCP in 2019. Considering he isn't likely to be the most trusted potential employee in political circles after that post, I guess it's a logical step.

What Kander didn't mention is that he was Derek Fildebrandt's legislative assistant.  Walk that back a moment.  Cole Kander, legislative assistant to Fildebrandt, who stepped down from caucus August 15, 2017, was let go.  The UCP, for whom Derek no longer works, but who paid the salary of Kander, let Kander go. Team Kenney may have the money but their game is pretty weak so far.