The Left-Right Conundrum

On Saturday July 22, 2017, some 20,000 people voted to merge the Wildrose and former Progressive Conservative parties.  I'd love to believe 40,000 people voted but significant results like 95%, for both parties, is statistically improbable.  Be that as it may, I doubt there will be much complaint from the general public and I personally wouldn't care if they forged every ballot; this is much more interesting than if the "no" vote won.

While campaigns were expected to begin immediately, as of today there are only two declared candidates for the leadership of the newly formed United Conservative Party; Brian Jean and Doug Schweitzer.  Unsurprisingly, Jean has already flipped his stance on forming a moderate government that will not cut jobs; it's becoming more his trade mark than "Wildrose won't raise your taxes".

When Jason Kenney appeased the right flank of the right wing by saying parents should be notified if their children join Gay Straight Alliances at school, Brian Jean's first statement claimed he was against notifying parents.  Then, on the following day, he updated his position to say notifying parents might be okay under certain circumstances. The day after, he tried to further clarify his position with smoke and muddy water.  At least when he only said one thing people could keep up.

"...if you want someone to go in there ideologically and cut taxes, no matter what, that's not me" Jean claimed.  That statement alone took him far away from the Wildrose of old and people took notice.  A right wing publication that has been very pro-Jean in the past slammed him with three nasty articles in a row.  By that time, Jean had already begun to back-track but they weren't interested in letting a possible left-leaning conservative off the hook.  Jean took the bait and has since announced he will repeal the carbon tax and cut $2.6 billion from expenditures immediately.  Perhaps when you hire a founder of a right-wing publication, the entire staff actually runs your campaign for you.

The fact remains there are only two declared candidates running for leadership of the United Conservative Party.  While Schweitzer gets to play Mr. Nice Guy by being LGBTQ2+ friendly, offering massive tax cuts and jobs for everyone (by decimating provincial revenue), Brian Jean is apparently not going to take that opportunity.  It would seem an unmentionable publication has steered him to seek the same flank that Jason Kenney already has wrapped around his socially conservative finger.  Which begs the question: does Brian Jean really think right-wing news subscribers are his voter base?

As a non-right-wing supporter who spends way too much time looking into views that don't match my own, I can say that there is only one well-known candidate who would be palatable for the majority of voters in Alberta; Brian Jean.  Not Brian Jean of a day after his moderate government commentary, but Brian Jean on the day of his moderate government narrative.  If Jean wants to create a big tent party, he's going to have to try to attract people who aren't so far right they're wrong.  He won't do that if he tows the right-wing narrative.

Centrist Politics: Right-Light Category

As the deadline to buy memberships to vote on the question of conservative unity passed, it was said internal polling by both the former Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties shows a strong indication of a victory for the unity question.  Of the three who have declared their candidacy for the leadership race that will follow a successful vote for a united party, Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney and Brian Jean, Schweitzer had been the only one to release a platform for his leadership bid.  However, Brian Jean was in full campaign mode when he sat down with Rick Bell on Thursday.  That's when things became confusing.

Photo Credit: Twitter, Woods Homes @ChildMntlHealth 

In the last three weeks, I have attended three Alberta Together events, meeting people who are former PC, Wildrose and Liberal supporters.  Talking with more than a few of them the issues brought up were: the former PC supporters don't support Kenney and the merger; the Wildrosers are fed up with the idiocy coming from the elected Mouthpiece Legislative Agitators; and the Liberals?  They're looking for a fresh start.  All of them are looking to a party that holds fiscal conservative and socially progressive values.  So, apparently, is Brian Jean.

The current leader of the Wildrose party claimed "most Albertans want a common sense, middle of the road government."  That certainly sounds familiar.  Greg Clark has been saying this at the "Centre Together" events.  Katherine O'Neill has been saying the same at Alberta Together events.  Kerry Cundal said the same thing during the Liberal Leadership.  One of these things is not like the other; or is it?

"Gone are the days when hard right governments can find success in Alberta" Jean told Rick Bell.  Which hard right governments could he possibly be referring to?  Certainly not the former PC Party who reigned for 44 years.  Sure, Fildebrandt has put out a dog whistle for the Libertarian supporters to "roll back the nanny state".  I mean, who doesn't want open liquor in the parks? (Spoiler: Anyone's wife taking their children to a park in their hometown of Calgary and has to deal with drunken arseholes.)  Schweitzer took a page from Donald Trump and called for "Two for one" business regulations (remove two regulations for every one introduced) and promised the "biggest tax reduction in Alberta's history".  For a province that's currently 11 billion dollars in debt... I just can't.

Then there's the Saskatchewan come Ottawa native, the socially conservative Mr. Jason Kenney who has made Alberta both a national and international embarrassment for his stance on Gay Straight Alliances.  With the joyously incredulous platforms of the other leadership contenders (and one on the fence), it seems as if Jean truly could be the centrist option for the Wildrose.  The question is, would they have him?

How Alberta's Carbon Tax May Have Made Gas Cheaper

Rick Perry is not an economist and neither am I, just so you know.  I was, however, paying attention in junior high when I was taught about 'supply and demand' (note: I was educated in the Canadian public school system which is pretty darned good).  I also live in Alberta which is only just starting to get its bearings back after a nasty recession caused by... an increase in the global supply of oil... which caused the price of oil to drop.  It's therefore entirely possible I have a better perspective of supply and demand than the Energy Secretary of the United States of America (I'm so sorry, America).

In what was termed a "Canada Day Miracle", gas prices did not increase as Canadians headed into a long weekend.  Not only did they not increase at all during the week, gas prices are at a seven year low... because the supply of available gas is higher than the demand.  When there is more supply than demand, prices go down; it's what the "law of supply and demand" is (again, I'm sorry, America).

When the Alberta NDP announced they would implement a carbon tax in an effort to get people thinking about their personal contribution to emissions, there was an uproar in Alberta.  To be fair, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than most citizens.  Somehow, there's a belief that Alberta is so rich we shouldn't have to pay taxes at all:

Fall 1998:  The government surveyed Albertans about their fiscal priorities in the "Talk it up. Talk it out." survey. Albertans gave increasing savings in the Heritage Fund an importance rating of 19.2 per cent, behind eliminating the debt, reducing taxes and increasing spending in priority areas. 

                                                     - Alberta Government, Ministry of Finance

In any case, Albertans were angry; still are.  I had a multitude of conversations with Kenney-Wildrose-esque conservative supporters about how they could not, under any circumstances, reduce their gas use.  Others said they would take the bus to avoid paying a carbon tax... (you can't make this stuff up).  The point of the carbon tax, I believe, was not to get everyone to reduce their use but to encourage those who could to do so.

As previously mentioned, Albertans seem to hate paying taxes more than anyone else.  There are also
a lot of Albertans who are concerned about climate change.  To my basic understanding of supply and demand, I think the carbon tax may have reduced the cost of gas for those who actually need it most.

Simplistically speaking, if people who didn't need to use as much gas stopped doing so, it would reduce the demand.  If the demand goes down, those who actually need to travel for work would reap the benefits of a lower price.  Again, I'm not an economist, but in my opinion, the introduction of a carbon tax in Alberta might have actually reduced both environmental and gas costs to everyone.

The Politics of Party Affiliation

In the last week there has been a lot to talk about on the political front and very little of it provided optimism for Alberta.  In BC, MLA Christy Clark, who approved the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, lost her bid to form government and the NDP's MLA John Horgan was named Premier designate on June 30, 2017.  Though an NDP government in BC would seem like a good thing for an NDP government in Alberta, there has been a difference of opinion between the two over the necessity of increasing pipeline capacity to the BC coast.

If that wasn't enough to begin to rile the Conservative troops in Alberta as they prepared to celebrate Canada's 150th birthday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau delivered his Canada Day speech in Ottawa naming the individual provinces and territories that make up this incredible country we call Canada and somehow skipped over Alberta.  Trudeau and politically engaged individuals across the country felt the backlash before it even started.  Just remember, when conservatives make a gaffe and apologize, everyone is expected to accept the apology and move on (*Note, there were a number from Fildebrandt so I just chose one at random).

Credit: Jason Kenney's official Facebook page

In Alberta, the conservative party "leaders" (Jason Kenney and MLA Brian Jean) and shakers (MLA Derek Fildebrandt) pounced on the opportunity to rally support from the separatists and conspiracy theorists.  Alberta Liberal Leader, David Khan, responded to MLA Brian Jean saying "Canada Day is the ONE day a year when politicians should be inclusive..." (no pun intended, I'm sure).  Neither the Alberta Party Leader, MLA Greg Clark, nor Alberta Premier Rachel Notley made any mention of the omission on social media.

I once had a conversation with someone about how it was beneficial for provincial parties to have federal counterparts.  The NDP, Liberals and former PC's all had a federal likeness of the same name and the Wildrose had Reform.  Even once the latter two parties merged federally, both provincial parties can lay claim to the parentage when it suits them. While the same could also be said for the NDP and Liberals, in a province that went very blue in the federal election the provincial parties are having a rough time with their federal namesakes and even their provincial cousins.

If David Khan didn't have enough of an uphill battle in the province before (and he did), the Prime Minister has managed to be unhelpful despite additional funding provided to the province during the downturn, expedition of infrastructure funding and pipeline approval. For the Alberta NDP, the federal party delivered a stunning blow almost one year after the provincial party was elected to government by tabling, and approving further discussion of the "Leap Manifesto" for implementation into federal NDP climate policy.  More recently, MP Jagmeet Singh, a federal NDP leadership candidate, claimed he would not support the addition of any pipelines, east or west for Alberta oil. Meanwhile, the federal Conservatives elected MP Andrew Scheer, a social conservative, to lead their party into the future of yesteryear. Personally, I'm starting to think it a blessing to not have a federal counterpart at all.