Notley's Pipe Dream Come True - Politically Speaking

When Trudeau announced the federal government would be purchasing Trans Mountain, few were shocked.  After all, Notley had said the provincial government would consider investing after Kinder Morgan ceased non-essential spending back in April.  Conservatives are saying there is no reason to celebrate because private investment was chased away.  Throughout Alberta's oil-drilling history however, and Canada's as well, the federal and provincial governments have both invested in natural resource development.

Most notably, Peter Lougheed invested in Suncor in the 70's and Trudeau Sr. started Petro-Canada.  The Suncor investment paid out not only to the government of Alberta as an investor but continues to do so today through royalties, taxes and job creation.  Petro-Canada was eventually sold for $6 billion.  Even so, the Conservatives are not happy.

Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

The word "failure" has been thrown around a lot since yesterday morning.  While consistently calling on the federal government to "enforce the rule of law", Conservative politicians deliberately ignored the court challenges from the B.C. government which also fall under "rule of law".  Sound bites are better to feed the masses with but you know the old saying "actions speak louder than a grassroots guarantee".

The federal government opted for their best chance of developing the pipeline; Crown immunity.  A private company is not immune to legal challenges but Crown immunity allows the federal government paramountcy over other levels of government.  As owner of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the federal government will have the ability to truly exercise its authority where Kinder Morgan could have been held up indefinitely by continuous court challenges from B.C.; or as Jason Kenney so eloquently stated "death by delay".

There were also accusations of "corporate welfare" but the federal government is currently seeking investors for the project.  The Alberta government has also made a pledge of up to $2 billion dollars in the event of cost overruns but Notley made it clear that if the Alberta government contributes any money to the pipeline, it will be in the form of an equity stake; not a "gift". 

Politically speaking, both Notley and Trudeau can celebrate although the federal Liberals will very likely take a hit both in BC and Quebec.  Though he is often accused of "ignoring" Alberta, Trudeau spent a lot of political capital for Alberta's economy.  As much as the Conservative opposition at both levels of government know the pipeline needs to be built, for them, it is an unwelcome development.

At the federal level, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has taken the bold position that Trudeau's decision "failed B.C.".   Personally, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see if Alberta's Conservatives will follow suit.  While Kenney frequently called Trudeau Notley's "good friend" while the pipeline was being held up it is apparently better to make friends than enemies - politically speaking.

Alberta NDP - Time to Cut the Cord?

The federal NDP has been making life difficult for the Alberta NDP since they formed government in 2015.  From the introduction of the LEAP Manifesto at the federal NDP Convention held in Edmonton in 2016 the federal party has been nothing but trouble for the provincial party; and that doesn't look like it's about to change.

The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Yesterday, federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced BC has his support in the Trans Mountain dispute.  Certainly, from a political point of view, support for the federal party is much stronger in BC than it can ever hope to be in Alberta.  This wasn't an announcement without thought; the parent party chose a side between the warring sibling Premiers.

Having a federal counterpart can be both a benefit and a curse.  In terms of support, visibility and credibility, such as with the CPC in Alberta and the Liberals in the east, having a federal counterpart endorse a provincial candidate can be a huge benefit.  If a provincial candidate can access an existing voter base, there is also a greater likelihood of success.

Take, for instance, Devin Dreeshen's candidacy for the UCP in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election.  His father, Earl Dreeshen, was first elected in 2008 to represent the CPC in the federal riding of Red Deer-Mountainview.  The family name is a likely boon but there is also an existing base of support consisting of door knockers, donors and a current list of phone numbers and email addresses of probable voters.  In politics, there are few things more valuable.

In the NDP's case, at least in Alberta, their federal ties would best be described as a curse, as the opposition in the Legislature cannot help but gleefully mention at least a few times a week.  Now Singh and the federal NDP have officially washed their hands of both Alberta and its governing party.  The Alberta NDP can no longer ignore the fact that their connection to the federal NDP is a liability.

On the ground, few would disagree that Rachel Notley won the 2015 election in spite of her affiliation with the federal NDP and not because of it. The party's provincial convention should be coming up soon and maybe the big question for the membership should be whether they would support the ND's cutting the cord and making their own way in the world.  It certainly appears they're being forced to do that anyway.

Flip Flops and Prairie Oysters

Premier Notley is between a rock and a hard place for the next seven days. Her decision to forego attendance at the Western Premier's Conference this week "to focus on the pipeline" has received mixed reviews.  Kenney, whose caucus has run from the Legislature an incredible 12 times this year to avoid debates on Bill 9, the "bubble zone" legislation, accused the Premier of "hiding" from BC Premier Horgan.  Others said she was doing the right thing by focusing on priorities for the province first.  You can't please everyone, especially when they don't seem to know what they want.

After originally claiming to support taxpayer dollars being used to invest in the Trans Mountain Expansion, Kenney has changed his position.  As leader of the Opposition with literally no ability to actually make decisions (or be involved in discussions), he can say whatever he wants; no matter how inconsistent. But perhaps it was the less than subtle jibe from his former caucus mate, Michelle Rempel that made him realize the error of his ways.

Official communications from the Premier's office have stated that the Premier's focus is on Kinder Morgan and Trans Mountain, but one article claims to have an inside scoop on the *real* reason for her decision: BC would not agree to a pre-written communique regarding market access for resources.  According to the article, the Premier announced she would not attend the conference afterward.

With only a week left until the Kinder Morgan deadline, BC's reference case is still before the court.  After unanimous approval of Bill 12, which gives the Minister of Energy final say on what flows through the Trans Mountain pipeline, BC filed a statement of claim against the legislation.  Currently, the pipeline carries multiple products to BC including diluted bitumen, fuel and diesel fuel.

One suggestion was that Bill 12 would give the Government of Alberta power to stop all fuel shipments through the pipeline and increase the amount of oil shipped instead.  Shipping products by rail and truck are both slower and more expensive and would likely further increase fuel costs in BC without "turning off the taps" (which would be unconstitutional).

Regardless of whether the Official Opposition agrees with the Government's actions, their impotence is not necessarily a bad thing.  While Kenney has claimed the Premier is simply following his "lead", he has the enviable ability to pretend otherwise if it benefits him.  When you don't actually have to stand by your word, the world is truly your prairie oyster.

Equalization and You (Cue Matches)

When a politician wants Albertans to light their hair on fire it is easily accomplished with two little words: "equalization payments".  It's almost as if some politicians want us to keep our minds on Ottawa and forget about what's going on here at home.  Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose and Jason Kenney, current leader of the UCP, are presently blowing the dog whistle but we've heard it all before.

One of Harper's 2004 campaign promises was to return the equalization formula to a ten-province standard rather than the current five-province, middle-income standard (it was current in 2003 and remains so to this day).  The issue, generally, is that most people don't understand what equalization is and how it works.  That allows certain politicians to use that to their advantage.

An excellent paper from 2004 compared the five-province standard to a ten-province standard and showed that equalization payments would increase if Alberta was part of the equation.  To put that into free-market terms, if employee wages were based on average wages paid at company X, you don't want the CEO's wage included; you only want to use the mid-range wages.  Alberta is the CEO.

Distribution of federal expenditures, 2014

So Harper walked back that campaign promise and in 2006, Klein threatened to "not participate" in equalization.  For all of their bluster, though, provincial politicians have zero pull when it comes to the formula (unless they're sitting MPs in the federal government, as both Jason Kenney and Brian Jean were in 2006, 2009 and 2013).  The reason neither provincial politicians hoping to form government nor politicians who actually run government have any say is because the province does not write a check to Ottawa. 

This cannot be said any simpler: our federal taxes are used to pay equalization; yours, mine, residents of Quebec, Ontario, and even Atlantic Canada.

As Prime Minister Trudeau, in his less than elegant way, said while in Calgary yesterday, the federal government has been there for Alberta.  Calgary will receive $1.5 billion in federal funding for the Green Line.  The federal government also increased unemployment benefits for Albertans during the recent recession and coughed up almost a billion in 2016 to help with costs related to the Fort McMurray fire.  So even though Alberta didn't receive "equalization payments", the province, and many people in Alberta, received, and will continue to receive, federal funding when needed.

Equalization exists right in our home province as well.  Revenue from provincial and property taxes build new schools in cities and small towns around the province.  Hospitals are upgraded, roads are improved and funding from the provincial government is granted to help build new recreation centres or fund programs in rural areas that don't have the tax base to support massive infrastructure.  Sure, Calgarians might feel their taxes should fund upgrades to Strathmore's hospital or the long-term care centre in Olds rather than their Cancer centre; but probably not.

The point is, there's a reason equalization exists; to help your rural Albertan neighbours and your fellow Canadians have access to services they need.  Equalization is paid out of your taxes and the government's role is to allocate funds to ensure all Canadians, and Albertans, have a reasonably similar standard of living; and that costs money.

So, please, Alberta, stop lighting your hair on fire over equalization.  You live in one of the wealthiest provinces with some of the strongest programs and services in the country, make the highest average wages, and pay the least taxes.  Equalization isn't the reason Alberta is in debt; it's because almost 80% of Albertans don't want to see cuts to programs and services but neither are they willing to pay for them. 

Catholics for Choice - and No Choice

After the better part of a week was spent on unicorn (policies) and rainbow (shock) Conservative fantasies (political gambles), the March for Life topped off events at the Legislature in Alberta on Thursday.  One takeaway was that schools busing kids to the March for Life in Edmonton went largely unnoticed by the political right in the province.  Apparently "agents of change" and "political participation" isn't something that parents, or politicians, of a Conservative bent care about: so long as it furthers a largely Conservative Cause.

Twitter, Michelle Bellefontaine @MBellefontaine 

The outrage over a political spectrum chart in a Red Deer High School caused more of a stir than St. Joseph's High and Notre Dame High in Red Deer offering public transportation for a protest at the Legislature.  Of course, it's not as if they were advocating for environmental stewardship or protesting racism or something that affects the entire population.  No, this was a pro-Life rally with signs suggesting "their" tax dollars should not be used to fund abortion services.  Services utilized by very few women but funded for safety, cost-effectiveness, and also "choice".

Much like the separate and private school systems which benefit much fewer children than the public system.  If it was a choice, some wouldn't fund separate schools with their tax dollars either.  The pot and kettle though, are natural enemies.

The Vice President of Alberta Catholic School Trustee Association, Paul Bourassa, also chose yesterday afternoon to post a video about the "choice" Catholic schools offer.  Ironic since a great number of his kindred spirits were at the Legislature to participate in an "anti-choice" rally. 

According to one article, anti-choice groups are pushing to see abortion debated in the Legislature.  While the Parties of choice have already stated their positions, perhaps these groups are asking for some sort of all-party participation.  Maybe they're even asking for representation... on an issue... that matters to them... Fancy that.

UCP Stance on GSAs Makes International Headlines - Again

It's been Christmas in May for the NDP since the UCP AGM.  Every day seems to add one more feather to the government's caps.  After the membership voted in favour of reinstating parental notification for "extra-curricular activities" that involved the distribution of "resources" pertaining to religion or sexuality on Sunday, all parties (including Jason Kenney) have been on the defensive.  It is a "very badly worded" motion Kenney told CTV Power Play, as he stood "by his decision not to enact" the policy members voted for.

"Research shows that GSAs save lives and this policy flies in the face not only of scientific evidence but of basic human decency as well" said a press release from the Alberta NDP on Sunday.  Stephen Mandel, leader of the Alberta Party, stated there are"certain fundamental things that are not negotiable: children's rights and their (right) to join a GSA (Gay-Straight Alliance)".  It's "a step backwards", echoed Alberta Liberal Party leader David Khan.

Another gift for the Government is the newly-formed habit of the UCP to walk out of the Legislature when they don't like the topic.  That topic of late is Bill 9, the legislation which will require a 50 metre safeguard for staff and patients entering and exiting clinics that offer abortion services.  The UCP has walked out en masse from three debates on the Bill so far; April 11, May 3, and again on May 9.  Some quipped the government could effectively keep them out of the Legislature permanently by extending the debates.

Funny though it might seem, MLAs in Alberta are elected to represent their constituents.  Kenney himself said the Party "will have to govern for all Albertans, not just Conservative Party members", yet has instructed his caucus not to show up for debate; and they have listened.  Is a representative that is beholden only to the Party Leader a true representative of the people who elected them?

Finally, although it's only Thursday, for the second time since Jason Kenney came to "save" Alberta, the reluctance of Kenney and his supporters to acknowledge a teen's right to privacy became international news.  For the record, no one is suggesting teens cannot tell their parents if they join a GSA.  If anything, this new legislation should be an opportunity for increased dialogue between parents and their children.

While I never personally thought of the UCP as the gift that keeps on giving, one has to admit they have not had a good week.  Luckily for them, most people don't pay attention to politics until election time.  Unfortunately, the UCP is very quickly acquiring "old" Party baggage the "new" Party was supposed to have left behind.

UCP AGM - I'd Be Asking For My Money Back

"We must have an approach... that empowers the grassroots members to decide the policy direction of this new party."

                        ~ Jason Kenney, Former "Servant Leader", August 2017

To the surprise of few, Jason Kenney's Grassroots Guarantee is no longer in effect after the grassroots of the United Conservative Party democratically voted for policies Jason Kenney can't win the election with.  Because as we all know, it's not about the membership (but please donate) and it's not about the people (well, some people, not you people), it's about power.

Kenney's foray into politics began with a campaign against free speech and women's healthcare choices at the University of San Francisco in the mid-eighties. While he certainly made a name for himself advocating for efficient spending of taxpayer dollars (until he was part of government), Kenney has continued his fight against evolving social norms with his near perfect voting record supporting "traditional" family values.  And there is nothing wrong with following your conscience if that is where it leads you; the issue here is honesty.

His more optimistic supporters will tell you he has changed his views.  Kenney said MLAs would have free votes but there's been no sign of that being true.  On Bill 24, strengthening support for Gay-Straight Alliances, Kenney said the UCP would oppose.  Although more UCP MLAs were present directly before the vote, the only ones who came back did indeed oppose the Bill.  All UCP MLAs were also notably absent during both the debate and vote for Bill 9, to create a 50m "bubble zone" around abortion clinics to deter harassment.  Ironically, one UCP MLA said their absence was due to harassment.

There is also his continued absence from Pride, currently two years and counting, since he launched his campaign to "Unite Alberta" (but not all of it).  And his suggestion that the government should "compromise" on Alberta's GSA law because "freedom of association and religion are also the law of the land".  Unfortunately it is obvious he feels "religion" trumps "association".  And only a couple of months ago, Kenney made a "joke" about gender-neutrality.  Why?  Because although he wants the UCP to look like a big tent, it is a very, very small tent.  And this is all for them; unless they mess with his chance at "Winning Alberta".

While traveling the province for 11 months in a campaign to unite conservatives, Kenney spent his days and nights speaking specifically to PC and Wildrose members.  He detailed how NDP policies were encroaching on parental rights and also that the government was changing the curriculum to brainwash children.  And now his supporters are scared; because he scared them.  And they not only proposed bad policy but they voted for it.

That "new" party has spoken and Kenney has said he "holds the pen" on the platform.  So what was the point of the policy convention?  What was the point of paying $250 to be there and vote for the policy that this new party is supposed to stand for?  If I was one of the 566 people who voted for the policy Kenney refuses to implement, I'd be asking for my money back.  As they often say, "money talks"; and that's something you can actually take to the bank.

Dance, Kenney, Dance

There were a number of things happening at the UCP AGM but things didn't really get interesting until Saturday afternoon.  The afternoon plenary session began 25 minutes late and we were only into the 25th of 63 proposed resolutions.  Other members soon began to voice concern over the time as well.  Motions were being made to try to hasten the process but effectively took longer.  The lawyers  involved started to make is seem as if the delays were deliberate.  John Carpay, Kenney's personal friend and head of the Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms who launched a case against the Alberta Government challenging the constitutionality of Bill 24, was the worst offender.

Members began to withdraw their motions in an effort to speed things up.  Further stalling tactics emerged and the rules of debate were becoming convoluted. With less than 10 minutes to go in the day's agenda, Governance Resolutions were finally tabled.  The membership was only able to vote on two before time was up. One requested more time but due to the speeches later, the request could not be accommodated.  In the event that not all proposals can be voted upon, the provincial board is granted the discretion to accept or reject any recommendation.  Not particularly "grassroots".

Saturday night was lined up to be a further celebration of the new Party and those who had made it possible.  Brad Wall, former Premier of Saskatchewan and new Alberta employee (but Saskatchewan resident) was to open for Kenney.  The show began with a video tribute to Kenney which highlighted accolades from others for his work as Immigration Minister in the federal government. 

Brad Wall is a great orator and entertaining to both watch and listen to.  He had an agenda for this crowd of course and brought up Premier Notley's "embarrassing cousins" comment.  I marveled at how the conservatives have controlled the narrative on those supposed missteps.  Much like Sarah Hoffman's "sewer rats" comment, they've taken the direct quotes and misrepresented them so consistently that even I, someone who knows better, am almost tempted to believe their version.

Calgary Herald Twitter: @calgaryherald

Wall then introduced Kenney who meandered through the crowd to the upbeat 1980 'hit' "Celebrate" by Kool and the Gang.  Kenney leisurely made his way to the stage, feigning surprise at seeing people he knew along the way, shaking hands and accepting vigorous arm pumps from enthusiastic members.  When he finally arrived on stage, a human backdrop consisting mostly of women had been assembled. 

I watched with a morbid fascination as he spoke, noting the strange facial expressions he made while repeating his carefully crafted lines.  He'd been busy taking in the results of the CBC's polling and it showed.  Kenney is a mediocre speaker but this speech hit every note; women, healthcare, education, the failing economy.  It was brilliantly concocted and delivered well.  Strange facial expressions aside, I could tell his words would resonate with a great number of people. 

The crowd was energetic; he told them their party was the most popular in the province; the most popular in the country actually!  They applauded and they cheered.  He took a moment to condemn threats against the Premier and asked the crowd to applaud her commitment to public service; and they did.  Then he dropped a bomb.

"Anyone who would threaten the Premier" he said, "is not welcome in the UCP."  It was a strong, bold statement that finally put a limit on what was acceptable to Kenney's UCP.  It was amazing.  At that moment, I envisioned the UCP sailing to victory in 2019.  It no longer mattered that he lies or that, to me, he is neither trustworthy nor genuine.  The outcome of the election was secured by that speech.  He would be the next Premier of Alberta.

Sunday

There were supposed to be 2400 registered attendees for the conference but if that was true, they don't vote for policy.  Every vote was tallied and then broken into "yes" and "no" votes and displayed on a big screen.  A few of us kept track of each outcome; they never reached 900 votes on any proposal and most often were below 700. 

The first policies were in omnibus form with a number of resolutions to be voted on at one time.  These contained some sketchy proposals including one in Education which stated:

"The United Conservative Party believes that the Government of Alberta should... reinstate parental opt-in consent for any subjects of a religious or sexual nature, including enrollment in extracurricular activities/clubs or distribution of any instructional materials/resources related to these topics."  (R030)

Leela Aheer, MLA from Chestermere-Rockyview, Jason Nixon, MLA from Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and Ric McIver, MLA from Calgary-Hays all spoke against supporting the collective proposals as some, above, put student's ability to safely join a GSA in jeopardy.  The motion passed with 74% in favour.  And it actually managed to get worse from there. 

Follow @HandmaidAlberta on Twitter

Corporate welfare? Yes.  Personal tax cuts with a huge deficit? Yes.  Two-tiered healthcare? Yes.  Equivalent funding (pay more to private schools or less to public) for the school of your choice? Yes.  Accept motions that, in an experienced Indigenous woman's words, "show a distinct lack of understanding around government funding" for First Nations? Yes.  Limit the ability of a young person to make their own healthcare choices? Yes.  Small government indeed. 

One woman derided First Nations groups.  A man made a degrading comment about low-income earners.  It was grotesque.  Members were begging the congregation to vote "no" on contentious issues so the Party could have a chance at being elected.  It was stunning.  The "big tent" was sucked into a fanny pack to be worn as a symbol of pride under grandpa's bulging belly.  Suddenly, there was no longer a vision of "clear sailing". 

I was almost in a daze as I started walking towards my car.  I had just witnessed a well-organized coup by socially regressive 'conservatives' who want all the benefits without the bill.  Behind me, two older gentlemen began to converse.  "I am one hundred percent happy with how this went" said one.  "Me too" the other responded, "I made some good contacts".  "Jason is going to have to dance around for a few days," mused the first.  "Well that's why he's paid the big bucks" replied the second.

Economic Recovery and Pipelines - A Short Comparison

"Canada is broken" wrote Jason Kenney in 2018, referencing B.C.'s opposition to the Trans Mountain Expansion.  The pipeline issue is, according to a recent poll by the CBC, among the top concerns for Albertans.  While economic recovery is evident in both growing job vacancies and increased weekly earning for Albertans, people don't "feel" like there's a recovery.  In many minds in Alberta, there is a lone key to economic success: Trans Mountain.  The problem is that B.C. opposition to pipelines began a number of years prior to both the provincial NDP governments of today and also before the current federal government came to office.

From 2011 to 2015, the NDP was the Official Opposition
in Ottawa

Opposition to the proposed Northern Gateway and Trans Mountain Expansion began when the Harper Conservative government and Clark's "blue Liberal" (conservative) government were in office.  BC residents participated in "tens of thousands" of varying consultations with Enbridge on the proposed Northern Gateway but by April of 2014, it was becoming clearer that concerns about climate change were only getting stronger.  (Albertans can be forgiven for not making a fuss about it as there were no federal MPs attempting to gain support for the project at that time.)

Upon approval of the Northern Gateway project in 2014, Justin Trudeau claimed the Conservative government "approved Northern Gateway despite serious concerns of local communities, Aboriginal Peoples, an British Columbians", stating that if he became Prime Minister, Northern Gateway would not "become a reality".  Even though opposition was already in place prior to the Conservative government's approval, a coalition of First Nations groups launched "at least 9 constitutional challenges" to the project in July of 2014.  In October of 2016, the Supreme Court of Canada overturned approval of the project and on November 29, 2016, the Liberal government ceremoniously rejected Enbridge's proposal.  But let us get back to feelings.

In 2017, Abacus Data released a poll on public perception of oil and pipelines and discovered that Canadians increasingly prefer to see the demand for oil decrease within the next ten years.  Politically-speaking, more than 50% of Conservatives would like to see the demand for oil decrease within 30 years.  Even in Alberta, a greater number of those polled would like to see the demand for oil decrease within 30 years, regardless of their political stripe.

Abacus Data; 2017

While Albertans have tied their short-term economic prosperity to a pipeline, even they don't appear to be in favour of continuing to increase production.  Granted, polls are a mere snapshot in time and this poll was conducted in April and August of 2017.  At that time, Kinder Morgan was still trying to gain support for the project.  Just because an additional 10% of federal Conservative Party supporters would prefer to see the demand for oil decrease within 30 years doesn't mean things are changing does it?  I guess it depends on how you feel.