War of the Roses

When Jason Kenney was elected as the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, 2017, he was elected on a platform to Unite Alberta, or Conservatives, or the Right, depending whose event you attended and in which geographical location.  Since his election, we have seen the formation of a group of right-leaning PC and Wildrose members who were to tackle this business of unity.  The most recent official update stated the group was having discussions and would later update on those discussions.   It doesn't appear that much is being accomplished in that area.  Or is it?

On Sunday night, the rumour mill started running.  Word was that there were 5 sitting PC MLAs (David Rodney, Prab Gill, Ric McIver, Richard Gotfried and Mike Ellis) and 5 WRP MLAs who were going to form an independent caucus in the legislature on Monday afternoon.  I reached out to someone I thought would know and he told me my grapevine was over-excited.  As we now know, it didn't happen on Monday but word is still strong that the plan is going forward.

Credit: Global News

On Tuesday I attended the New Conservative Dinner hosted by Scott Gilmore.  Having attended a few sessions in the very recent past asking similar questions (what is important to you? how should we be moving forward? why are you unhappy with the current state of politics?) the only change was the attendees.  I've participated in discussions with Liberals, Centrists and Moderates.  I've even had lunch with a nutty Wildroser who, unfortunately, confirmed every reason why I could never support that party.

There was a mix of people at this event and that makes things interesting.  One gentleman said he didn't quite understand why these discussions were taking place right now.   Why not wait until after the federal leadership race was over?  My best guess is that it's because people are engaged right now; after the leadership race, they may pack up or disengage.  I agree that the time for these conversations is now.

Unsurprisingly, there were a number of people who complained their MP didn't seem to represent them.  The majority of people in the room self-disclosed as card carrying CPC members with a show of hands when Scott asked.  The leadership race has been incredibly divisive with anti-Canadian values and anti-everything that most people realize is the new normal.  Many agreed with a statement from one woman who said "the country has evolved; the CPC has not".  And that's what many progressive conservatives are currently saying to the PC/WR party.

Evolution is not generally a Conservative strong point and that's literally a definition; conserving tradition, processes, beliefs, and so on.  Jason Kenney represents that description to a tee.  So is it any wonder that polls are suggesting an overall preference for Brian Jean to lead the united party?  In comparison, Brian Jean is more moderate than Jason Kenney can ever hope to pretend to be.  Brian Jean would have the opportunity to keep some of those centre-right leaning members.

The situation is remarkably similar to the federal party.  While Michael Chong is the favourite for the Progressive Conservatives of old, and while he is moderate enough to actually have a shot at stealing votes from Trudeau; it's unlikely he will win because "he's either first on your ballot or last".  Bernier will not be last on a PC ballot because Trost, Leitch or Alexander will take that spot (the CPC use a ranked ballot where voters place their first, second, third down to 10th pick) meaning he will likely outrank Chong by being higher up on the ballot than last.

Logically, it fails.  The majority has spoken and said they would support Jean over Kenney.  So the tidbit that was dropped off to me on Tuesday makes little sense.  In a leadership race Jean would win unless another Wildroser entered that race to split the vote; someone under the Wildrose banner but who has always been on Team Kenney.  That was the tidbit... power over people.  No surprise there.