A Progressive Dilemma

This morning Richard Starke, one of four candidates for PC leadership, announced that his plan for "unity" is to work with the Wildrose Party to beat the NDP in 2019.  This has been referred to as a "non-plan" and a "hail Mary".  Some have speculated that this plan would involve more backroom deals like the one that led to the 2014 floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs, including the leader of the party, to the PCs.  For example would certain candidates only run in certain ridings?  Keep the PC candidates out of rural areas for example?  Or would they just scratch each other's backs more once one of them became government?

In any case, people stopped talking about it entirely once Brian Jean, leader of the Wildrose party, came out with his own announcement that he was also on board with uniting the parties and he would run for leader of that united conservative party.  Personally, I have little faith in Brian Jean having any chance at the leadership role simply because he's jumped onto Kenney's bandwagon.

Now Brian Jean did not say he supported Kenney.  He has also said he has his own idea for uniting the conservatives.  The problem most of us see is that not all conservatives feel at home with all other conservatives. When Lougheed became the leader of a plucky little party that almost literally brought itself back from the dead, there was a term for people who believed in progressive values and fiscal conservatism; Red Tories (which is a mix of liberal (red) and conservative).  These Red Tories still exist today and they are very likely a plentiful bunch, particularly in the urban ridings.

Thomas Lukaszuk appeared with Laurie Blakeman and Mariam Ibrahim on Dinner TV Edmonton tonight to talk politics with Courtney Theriault and he brought up an interesting point.  Very few people believe that Kenney actually managed to get the support he has been claiming from within the PC Party without bringing in some Wildrose faithful.  Lukaszuk said that Kenney is counting those individuals as proof that he has the support of the PCs... but they aren't PC supporters.  Even if Kenney manages to become leader of the party (and it certainly seems likely that he will), there are many progressive-minded conservatives who will not join him in a Wildrose party.

So where, if the proudly progressive conservative party is no more, will these voters go?  While many are pointing to the viability of the Alberta Party as a home for centrists and progressive values with fiscal responsibility considerations... I don't see it happening.

In 2012 the Wildrose party, under the skillful and inspiring leadership of Danielle Smith, was poised to actually be a very strong contender against the PCs.  Rumour has it, they could have formed government.  Except for one thing; a blog post from a candidate that claimed gay people would burn in a "lake of fire".  That story hit the media streams the week before the 2012 election and voters rushed back to the PC party, so they say.

It is my humble opinion that if a conservative party does emerge as some sort of united front, those Red Tories will turn to NDP to stop the rush of social conservatives from taking over government.  In doing so, they will neglect their likely more happy home with the Alberta party until the united conservatives no longer pose an actual threat to their way of life.  But I could be wrong.

D.