The New Conservative Paradise is Ontario; Up Next, Quebec?

Deirdre Mitchell-MacLean
Friday June 8, 2018

Alberta Conservatives are rejoicing in the wake of Doug Ford's election as Premier, with a majority government, in Ontario.  "Ford Nation" proved that a party could be elected with no platform and the mathematically improbable mantra of cutting taxes and increasing spending while reducing debt; music to the ears of upcoming Conservative campaigns in Alberta.  For Jason Kenney, who has been equally light on solutions but big on improbable promises, Ford's win must be especially comforting.

"The winning strategy was simply to take the angry rural conservative base that's been building... and add the established voting pool... that core group of supporters" ~ Don Guy, veteran strategist; CBC, June 7, 2018 

Jason Kenney / Facebook

It was written about Ontario but it sounds awfully familiar.  The United Conservative Party has been building this perfect storm for almost three years now and we will likely see a surge in their froth-inducing narrative over the coming months.  Anger, hate and fear: the basis of a winning strategy in the Conservative heartland.

Anger over a government trying to inch Alberta into a green economy, hatred of evolving social norms and fear of an uncertain future.  From 2015 - 17, Saskatchewan and its Premier embodied Alberta's Conservative utopia. Now, Saskatchewan has a higher unemployment rate than Alberta.  Since Brad Wall abandoned his post as Premier to seek greener pastures in Calgary, his austerity measures and failure to rejuvenate the Saskatchewan economy are Scott Moe's problem.  But hope came from Ontario.

Now the United Conservatives have the once Liberal but suddenly Conservative province of Ontario to show Albertans where the greener grass grows.  Keep in mind that only 40% of the vote went to a conservative party while the other 60% went to the Liberals, NDP and Greens.  Reminiscent, one might say, of the 2015 election that saw the NDP rise in Alberta over the conservative parties with only 41% of the vote. 

"The (Party) was humiliated by voters going from a majority government to a small handful of seats"~ email to UCP members from Jason Kenney, June 7, 2018

Doug Ford / Facebook

One should expect few major moves from Ontario's new government prior to the Alberta election in 2019 aside from cutting taxes. The Conservative coalition within Canada will want to assure voters in Alberta that what they love, social programs, education and healthcare spending without the bill, will remain in place under a provincial Conservative government.  Ontario: Alberta's new Conservative Paradise... ?

Doubtful anyone ever considered that a possibility even though Conservatism might look a little different there than it does in Alberta.  Ford's promise of one dollar beer and government mandated cheaper gas doesn't just happen on its own in a free-enterprise society, you know.  And nothing says "open for investment" like dictating prices to private companies - as any good Conservative knows.  But don't concern yourself about that; Ontario certainly didn't.

Francois Legault / Facebook

As if there wasn't enough celebrating to be had, hang on to your hats, Alberta, because the party has only just begun.  The next provincial election is on October 2 in Quebec and there's been some very interesting developments on the Conservative front there as well.  Francois Legault, leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ), a 'progressive conservative'-type party, has said "a CAQ government will aim for zero equalization" in four years AND ... you probably guessed it, cut taxes.  As is becoming the norm for Conservative politics, Legault says there will be no service cuts either.

Something isn't adding up in provincial politics lately.  Alberta's Conservatives have been calling for a return to the basics in education, particularly in math.  I'm beginning to see why.

Will Ontario Bring Hope Back to the Federal Conservatives?

In the past three years, provincial election results have been surprising political observers. Most notably, the Alberta electorate voted in a majority NDP government in 2015 toppling the 44 year "dynasty" of the Progressive Conservative Party.  Later that same year, Newfoundland removed the PCs in favour of the Liberals in a "landslide victory".  Manitoba, which had been governed by the NDP for almost 17 years, elected a PC majority in 2016.

Things were looking up for the federal/provincial conservative forces until the following year when BC's blue Liberals were taken down by a Green-NDP coalition after 16 years in power.   After being unceremoniously ousted federally, Conservatives have been looking to provincial elections with the hope that the tide may be turning.  In just two days, Ontario heads to the polls to choose between Doug Ford's PC Party and Andrea Horwath's NDP.  The Liberals were hardly even in contention according to the polls but after Kathleen Wynne stepped down on Saturday, it is unlikely her plea to reelect a now leaderless Liberal government will be heeded.

Unlike the BC Liberals, the Liberals in Ontario were not considered to be "friends" of federal  Conservatives but an NDP majority in Ontario will be a major blow to Conservative hopefuls.  An NDP government in Ontario certainly doesn't mean things will be copacetic for Alberta either if BC-Alberta relations are anything to go by.  Horwath has received an endorsement from the federal NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, but as one astute commentator pointed out, such an endorsement hasn't come to the Alberta NDP, and they likely wouldn't want one.

Ontario has been enjoying (?) a whirlwind in provincial politics not wholly unlike that in Alberta.  Patrick Brown, a former CPC MP under Harper, won the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership in 2017.  His socially conservative voting record while a federal MP was an easy point of attack by the socially progressive Wynne government.  From within Brown's own party some members gave voice to a fear of "social conservative" support that would move the party further to the right.  Brown resigned under duress from caucus in January of 2018 after allegations of sexual assault.

Mark Blinch/The Canadian Press

Doug Ford, brother of former Toronto Mayor the late Rob Ford, was elected to the leadership role of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party in March after what was termed a "contentious" vote.  Ford was a Toronto City Councilor under his brother Rob and was previously involved in managing operations at his family's business.  Ford also holds socially conservative views but said his caucus would be granted freedom to vote their conscience.  A similar pledge from the Conservative Party leader in Alberta has seen limited success.

Like Kenney, Ford has the backing of fundamentalists and traditional family values advocates but Ford himself said in 2014 the Progressive Conservative party needed to be socially progressive.  In the weeks leading up to the election, Ford has been accused of collecting personal information for 'fake' party memberships to interfere in candidate nominations in 2016 and appointing candidates instead of allowing open nomination races.  Yesterday information about a legal matter Ford is currently involved in was made public.  His brother Rob's widow is suing him and his other brother for 16.5 million related to "mismanagement" of Rob's estate.

Earlier this year, Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives were considered the only alternative to the provincial Liberals.   Polling over the last month, which is never a certainty for election day, showed the Ontario PC's tied with the NDP and the governing Liberals in a distant third.  Ontario's NDP, led by Andrea Horwath, have seen increasing support that has taken them from third party to within reach of forming government.

A second poll showed a "surge" in support that put the NDP ahead of the PCs.  Maclean's released results from an online poll as well that suggests people who are "paying attention" support conservatives while people who are "not paying attention" overwhelmingly support the NDP.  While that tidbit will be fodder for Conservatives to claim many things, it also means the NDP supporters will not be as easily reached since they are "not paying attention".

In a third poll by ONpulse they had determined the Ontario election is "too close to call" but that poll was completed before Kathleen Wynne stepped down on Saturday morning.  The Ontario Liberals now have to fight from third place without a leader.  Wynne had acknowledged in her "sorry, not sorry" statement that she was unpopular but leaving the Liberals without a leader can hardly be a winning strategy.  As noted by some, she may have given Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP the boost it needed to take the election from the PC's.  T minus 42 hours...

Derek Fildebrandt: The Independent

Only four months ago, partisans from all parties were hoping Derek Fildebrandt would just fade away.  Many wrote off his ability to reclaim his former glory after diving headfirst into what appeared to be the largest pile of self-manufactured manure in Alberta politics.  Fildebrandt, however, seems born for the political character he plays and in Alberta politics, the stage is completely set for the next, or even former, big act.

Back in February, when Fildebrandt found out he would no longer be welcome in the UCP caucus, there were some dark days for him.  "They called me after the press release" he said, "up until literally the day before, Kenney's people told me to just pay the fine and stay quiet".  So he stayed quiet until then and for a time afterward.  Then he started talking.

"Politics is full of bullshit" he told reporters at a press conference in March.  He also said that he was told, by Kenney, he would not be allowed to vie for the nomination in his home riding as Leela Aheer, MLA for Chestermere-Rockyview and one of only two female MLAs in the UCP, was now the preferred candidate.

On April 25, Fildebrandt held a town hall meeting at the Strathmore Legion to discuss the impending pipeline issues.  During that meeting, he said the original plan was for Aheer to run in a North East Calgary riding and he would be the candidate for Chestermere-Strathmore.  That changed, he said, once Kenney won the UCP leadership in October. "What Jason said to me," he recounted, "is it's not about me challenging other incumbents; it's about me challenging female incumbents".

No one on other side of the Conservative fence thought Fildebrandt would go quietly but his reemergence from certain political death has been impressive in its steady calculations.  On May 8, he delivered an impassioned statement to the Legislative Assembly.

"When I was told that I would not be allowed to run in my own constituency because of affirmative action gender quotas, I didn’t quit, but when I was told to just keep quiet and keep my head down until all this passed, I did. It wasn’t in my character to do so, and it was a mistake. I allowed the scheming backroom operators to dictate my behaviour as they are now dictating the behaviour of others.

I was the first member of this House to call for the unification of conservatives, but I’m honestly not sure if history will judge that to have been the right thing to do anymore. 

Conditional for supporting unification was the grassroots guarantee that local members would select their own candidates and that members would set the policies of the party. If you believe in democracy, then you accept that you lose a vote sometimes on policy or on your hand-picked candidates. 

I can’t be whipped. As long as I’ve been an MLA, I have always voted freely and have broken with the party whip on more than one occasion. One of the things I’m grateful for right now is that there is no party whip telling me how to vote or even not how to vote. The only people who get to tell me how to vote are the people of Strathmore-Brooks. Party backroomers may have stripped the members in my constituency of the right to vote for the candidate of their choice, but they have not stripped me of my voice to say: I don’t quit."

For that speech, he received a good deal of applause from the members in the Assembly but not, predictably, from his former caucus.  And it was just the first indication of a return to the formerly determined and rather fiery MLA of memory.  While Fildebrandt has definitely not stopped holding the government to account on behalf of his constituents, he has also taken on a new adversary.

Rebel Media

Fildebrandt, along with the governing NDP, Alberta Party caucus, the Liberal MLA and PC MLA, has been vocal in his derision of the UCP's failure to show up and represent Albertans in the Legislature in what has been called a "disgraceful dereliction of", and an "unprecedented shunning of the opposition's" duty.  He has even gone so far as to ask the members of the UCP to stay and do their job.  On May 30, in a member's statement regarding a scheduled debate on Bill 9, the abortion clinic "bubble zone" law, he said he hoped the UCP caucus would "at least stay for the next debate and participate in that debate and vote in that debate."  Four members did stay, silent, during debate but left when the vote was called.

He may also find himself with a new obstacle to his work as he discovered that same day.  Fildebrandt had proposed a motion to open debate on the Kinder Morgan pipeline development and the Alberta government's role in the investment.  As is parliamentary procedure, he had given notice to all other parties.  Fildebrandt stated he gave his notice to the parties more than 24 hours in advance of the May 30 sitting. That morning, he discovered a near identical motion was being tabled by the UCP.  The Speaker noted the notice from the Official Opposition had been received that morning at 7:39 am but notice from the Independent did not arrive until 8:42 am.  Fildebrandt also noted that he had not received notice from the Official Opposition on that motion.

An independent MLA has little power but he does have his voice; as does every other representative in the Assembly, should they choose to use it.

"We might not get to change the final outcome of a vote, but we get to have our say. In fact, it is our duty to have our say, to speak up for our constituents on bills that we support, on bills that we oppose, and on bills that we might not even want to talk about. If they’re on the floor of this Legislature, it is our duty to our constituents to stand up, speak up, and be counted every time".

Edmonton Sun

That Fildebrandt lost some power when he was reduced to a caucus of one is of little doubt.  While he was, for a time, persona non grata he has found his voice once again and returned to what was a strength for him at the start of his career; his fierce independence. 

He campaigned tirelessly for unity of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties.  He also drew speculation about a possible run for the leadership of those parties when he launched the "United Liberty" brand.  He never intended to run for the leadership but "the idea" he says "was to help shape the party" with a liberty-conservative ideology.  Now, he is no longer helping to shape the United Conservative Party.

Instead, he is "actively consulting on founding a new, autonomist libertarian-conservative party".  And he is not doing it alone.  As an obsessive political observer, I keep up with news and events.  As Fildebrandt is my MLA, I take particular note of where his name pops up.  One relatively recent place was on a hat worn by the Rebel Media's "Alberta Bureau Chief" in their Twitter profile picture.  The next was at a Rebel-hosted rally where he spoke to the crowd in favour of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.  He was introduced by Rebel Media founder Ezra Levant as "an independent; just like us".

On May 11, he appeared on Ezra Levant's Rebel Media to discuss a number of failings he attributes to Jason Kenney and the UCP caucus.  These include the "whipped" members refusing to represent their constituents on Bill 9, Kenney's refusal to allow Fildebrandt to run against Leela Aheer for the riding nomination and the caucus voting with the NDP to provide incentives for "gender quotas" in private industry. 

Regardless of the medium, Fildebrandt does have some legitimate complaints and now that he is an independent, he will continue to raise these concerns against the UCP.  Aside from him running in the next election it's unlikely the UCP considered him to be more than a temporary nuisance. If he manages to introduce yet another new party into the Alberta political scene, that may very quickly change.  Derek Fildebrandt has pulled himself up from certain political death by being exactly who he was as at the top of his game with Wildrose; Derek Fildebrandt: the independent.

Notley's Pipe Dream Come True - Politically Speaking

When Trudeau announced the federal government would be purchasing Trans Mountain, few were shocked.  After all, Notley had said the provincial government would consider investing after Kinder Morgan ceased non-essential spending back in April.  Conservatives are saying there is no reason to celebrate because private investment was chased away.  Throughout Alberta's oil-drilling history however, and Canada's as well, the federal and provincial governments have both invested in natural resource development.

Most notably, Peter Lougheed invested in Suncor in the 70's and Trudeau Sr. started Petro-Canada.  The Suncor investment paid out not only to the government of Alberta as an investor but continues to do so today through royalties, taxes and job creation.  Petro-Canada was eventually sold for $6 billion.  Even so, the Conservatives are not happy.

Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

The word "failure" has been thrown around a lot since yesterday morning.  While consistently calling on the federal government to "enforce the rule of law", Conservative politicians deliberately ignored the court challenges from the B.C. government which also fall under "rule of law".  Sound bites are better to feed the masses with but you know the old saying "actions speak louder than a grassroots guarantee".

The federal government opted for their best chance of developing the pipeline; Crown immunity.  A private company is not immune to legal challenges but Crown immunity allows the federal government paramountcy over other levels of government.  As owner of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, the federal government will have the ability to truly exercise its authority where Kinder Morgan could have been held up indefinitely by continuous court challenges from B.C.; or as Jason Kenney so eloquently stated "death by delay".

There were also accusations of "corporate welfare" but the federal government is currently seeking investors for the project.  The Alberta government has also made a pledge of up to $2 billion dollars in the event of cost overruns but Notley made it clear that if the Alberta government contributes any money to the pipeline, it will be in the form of an equity stake; not a "gift". 

Politically speaking, both Notley and Trudeau can celebrate although the federal Liberals will very likely take a hit both in BC and Quebec.  Though he is often accused of "ignoring" Alberta, Trudeau spent a lot of political capital for Alberta's economy.  As much as the Conservative opposition at both levels of government know the pipeline needs to be built, for them, it is an unwelcome development.

At the federal level, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has taken the bold position that Trudeau's decision "failed B.C.".   Personally, I'm on pins and needles waiting to see if Alberta's Conservatives will follow suit.  While Kenney frequently called Trudeau Notley's "good friend" while the pipeline was being held up it is apparently better to make friends than enemies - politically speaking.

Alberta NDP - Time to Cut the Cord?

The federal NDP has been making life difficult for the Alberta NDP since they formed government in 2015.  From the introduction of the LEAP Manifesto at the federal NDP Convention held in Edmonton in 2016 the federal party has been nothing but trouble for the provincial party; and that doesn't look like it's about to change.

The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Yesterday, federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced BC has his support in the Trans Mountain dispute.  Certainly, from a political point of view, support for the federal party is much stronger in BC than it can ever hope to be in Alberta.  This wasn't an announcement without thought; the parent party chose a side between the warring sibling Premiers.

Having a federal counterpart can be both a benefit and a curse.  In terms of support, visibility and credibility, such as with the CPC in Alberta and the Liberals in the east, having a federal counterpart endorse a provincial candidate can be a huge benefit.  If a provincial candidate can access an existing voter base, there is also a greater likelihood of success.

Take, for instance, Devin Dreeshen's candidacy for the UCP in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election.  His father, Earl Dreeshen, was first elected in 2008 to represent the CPC in the federal riding of Red Deer-Mountainview.  The family name is a likely boon but there is also an existing base of support consisting of door knockers, donors and a current list of phone numbers and email addresses of probable voters.  In politics, there are few things more valuable.

In the NDP's case, at least in Alberta, their federal ties would best be described as a curse, as the opposition in the Legislature cannot help but gleefully mention at least a few times a week.  Now Singh and the federal NDP have officially washed their hands of both Alberta and its governing party.  The Alberta NDP can no longer ignore the fact that their connection to the federal NDP is a liability.

On the ground, few would disagree that Rachel Notley won the 2015 election in spite of her affiliation with the federal NDP and not because of it. The party's provincial convention should be coming up soon and maybe the big question for the membership should be whether they would support the ND's cutting the cord and making their own way in the world.  It certainly appears they're being forced to do that anyway.

Flip Flops and Prairie Oysters

Premier Notley is between a rock and a hard place for the next seven days. Her decision to forego attendance at the Western Premier's Conference this week "to focus on the pipeline" has received mixed reviews.  Kenney, whose caucus has run from the Legislature an incredible 12 times this year to avoid debates on Bill 9, the "bubble zone" legislation, accused the Premier of "hiding" from BC Premier Horgan.  Others said she was doing the right thing by focusing on priorities for the province first.  You can't please everyone, especially when they don't seem to know what they want.

After originally claiming to support taxpayer dollars being used to invest in the Trans Mountain Expansion, Kenney has changed his position.  As leader of the Opposition with literally no ability to actually make decisions (or be involved in discussions), he can say whatever he wants; no matter how inconsistent. But perhaps it was the less than subtle jibe from his former caucus mate, Michelle Rempel that made him realize the error of his ways.

Official communications from the Premier's office have stated that the Premier's focus is on Kinder Morgan and Trans Mountain, but one article claims to have an inside scoop on the *real* reason for her decision: BC would not agree to a pre-written communique regarding market access for resources.  According to the article, the Premier announced she would not attend the conference afterward.

With only a week left until the Kinder Morgan deadline, BC's reference case is still before the court.  After unanimous approval of Bill 12, which gives the Minister of Energy final say on what flows through the Trans Mountain pipeline, BC filed a statement of claim against the legislation.  Currently, the pipeline carries multiple products to BC including diluted bitumen, fuel and diesel fuel.

One suggestion was that Bill 12 would give the Government of Alberta power to stop all fuel shipments through the pipeline and increase the amount of oil shipped instead.  Shipping products by rail and truck are both slower and more expensive and would likely further increase fuel costs in BC without "turning off the taps" (which would be unconstitutional).

Regardless of whether the Official Opposition agrees with the Government's actions, their impotence is not necessarily a bad thing.  While Kenney has claimed the Premier is simply following his "lead", he has the enviable ability to pretend otherwise if it benefits him.  When you don't actually have to stand by your word, the world is truly your prairie oyster.

Equalization and You (Cue Matches)

When a politician wants Albertans to light their hair on fire it is easily accomplished with two little words: "equalization payments".  It's almost as if some politicians want us to keep our minds on Ottawa and forget about what's going on here at home.  Brian Jean, former leader of the Wildrose and Jason Kenney, current leader of the UCP, are presently blowing the dog whistle but we've heard it all before.

One of Harper's 2004 campaign promises was to return the equalization formula to a ten-province standard rather than the current five-province, middle-income standard (it was current in 2003 and remains so to this day).  The issue, generally, is that most people don't understand what equalization is and how it works.  That allows certain politicians to use that to their advantage.

An excellent paper from 2004 compared the five-province standard to a ten-province standard and showed that equalization payments would increase if Alberta was part of the equation.  To put that into free-market terms, if employee wages were based on average wages paid at company X, you don't want the CEO's wage included; you only want to use the mid-range wages.  Alberta is the CEO.

Distribution of federal expenditures, 2014

So Harper walked back that campaign promise and in 2006, Klein threatened to "not participate" in equalization.  For all of their bluster, though, provincial politicians have zero pull when it comes to the formula (unless they're sitting MPs in the federal government, as both Jason Kenney and Brian Jean were in 2006, 2009 and 2013).  The reason neither provincial politicians hoping to form government nor politicians who actually run government have any say is because the province does not write a check to Ottawa. 

This cannot be said any simpler: our federal taxes are used to pay equalization; yours, mine, residents of Quebec, Ontario, and even Atlantic Canada.

As Prime Minister Trudeau, in his less than elegant way, said while in Calgary yesterday, the federal government has been there for Alberta.  Calgary will receive $1.5 billion in federal funding for the Green Line.  The federal government also increased unemployment benefits for Albertans during the recent recession and coughed up almost a billion in 2016 to help with costs related to the Fort McMurray fire.  So even though Alberta didn't receive "equalization payments", the province, and many people in Alberta, received, and will continue to receive, federal funding when needed.

Equalization exists right in our home province as well.  Revenue from provincial and property taxes build new schools in cities and small towns around the province.  Hospitals are upgraded, roads are improved and funding from the provincial government is granted to help build new recreation centres or fund programs in rural areas that don't have the tax base to support massive infrastructure.  Sure, Calgarians might feel their taxes should fund upgrades to Strathmore's hospital or the long-term care centre in Olds rather than their Cancer centre; but probably not.

The point is, there's a reason equalization exists; to help your rural Albertan neighbours and your fellow Canadians have access to services they need.  Equalization is paid out of your taxes and the government's role is to allocate funds to ensure all Canadians, and Albertans, have a reasonably similar standard of living; and that costs money.

So, please, Alberta, stop lighting your hair on fire over equalization.  You live in one of the wealthiest provinces with some of the strongest programs and services in the country, make the highest average wages, and pay the least taxes.  Equalization isn't the reason Alberta is in debt; it's because almost 80% of Albertans don't want to see cuts to programs and services but neither are they willing to pay for them.