The Numbers Game

On Thursday, the Alberta Party released its membership numbers.  To some, like Lorne Gunter, the UCP-immersed columnist for the Edmonton Sun, it was an exercise in over-confidence.  Their numbers, now exceeding 6,500, are in the realm of what the Official Opposition leader Jason Kenney claimed the PC Party had... in 2016.  Before Kenney began his quest to unite the wayward conservatives from the PC Party back with "true" conservatives from the Wildrose Party, the PC Party membership had, according to him, plummeted to ~6,500.

Of course, it's not true but it makes for a fantastic tale of personal accomplishment.  Imagine if he actually had taken a party with 6,500 members to 40,000 in a few short months; now that would be an achievement!  The reality though, is not even Stephen Harper's number two managed such a feat.

Former PCAA board members confirm the PC party had around 26,000 members in July of 2016.  By the start of the leadership race in October, that number was around 30,000.  In March of 2017, the party boasted over 40,000 members.  For context, the membership numbers during the 2014 PCAA leadership race were ~77,000.

From October 2016 to March 2017, around 10,000 PC memberships were sold, or ~2,500 per month.  According to the info-graphic from the Alberta Party, they had 1,650 members in November of 2017 and now have 6,600.  The leadership race began in December so they sold ~2,475 per month.  Is there any certainty the PCs would have sold 10,000 memberships in a two month race or that the AP would have sold almost 10,000 in a four month race?  No.  What they did do was sell around the same amount on a monthly basis and that is not as insignificant as some would like you to believe.

While there are going to be detractors and celebrators, political party membership is small.  Approximately 4-6% of the population bothers to buy memberships yet over 50% vote.  It would be a mistake to believe that both the NDP and Conservative parties aren't paying attention.  The centre of the political spectrum is where most Albertans are and neither the NDP nor the UCP can allow the other to move in on that space.  So they will keep pushing each other further left, and right, and allow plenty of room for a party whose policies are in line with both fiscally and socially responsible voters.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and VP Membership for the same. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.  Today is also the first day of my two week staycation and I'm still in my pjs. Cheers.

Unpopular Opinion: Premier Notley Got it Wrong

In a stunningly bad move by the Alberta NDP, Premier Rachel Notley held a live presser today and announced the Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission would immediately stop importing BC wine.  This is in addition to the Alberta government ceasing talks with BC to import electricity from the Site C Dam last week.  Jason Kenney has been egging this on from the sidelines for over a year and the NDP finally took the bait.  But Kenney missed the opportunity when he agreed, albeit backhandedly, with the Premier's decision.

Entering into a trade war with the closest port we have access to seems like a bad idea on most days

hellobc.com

but it feels worse as the Alberta economy is still hiking out of a recession. We don't need a trade war. The Alberta-Saskatchewan license plate debacle was bad enough and that was pretty lame compared to this. No matter what happens from this point, BC still holds has checkmate; they can delay the pipeline expansion while they commission environmental impact assessments. 

While BC NDP holds off "big oil" with their millions or billions of dollars keeping them afloat, Premier Notley struck back at small and medium-sized businesses and "family farms".  In response, BC is looking into how they can retaliate (there's a reason society finally accepted the logical fallacy of that "eye for an eye" thing).  Sure, this might be a popular response from a Premier but it's not smart.  What happens if BC restaurants do decide to stop serving Alberta Beef?  What happens if they decide to get on board with those who oppose the pipeline?  What happens if they find other ways to block Alberta's access to tidewater? Two wrongs don't make a right and the Premier made a bad decision - as if Kenney agreeing with her doesn't speak loudly enough.

kindermorgan.com

This decision has worse consequences for Alberta than it does for BC.  I understand that something needed to be done but we had the rule of law on our side.  We had the constitution on our side.  Now, we have become petty.  That's not what I want from my government - populism be damned.  We stand to lose a lot more over infighting.

The fact of the matter is that the pipeline is ALREADY in the ground.  It has been there for over 50 years.  A fifty year old pipeline is going to be upgraded to 2017 standards and BC is opposing that for what reason?  I mean seriously.  Do the residents of BC prefer the old one?  Because it's already there.  Kinder Morgan is doing you a favour by upgrading it; why are you on board with the government holding that up?  Newer technology, the ability to replace old, worn parts; how do you lose?  

If you fly out of #YVR, you are relying on fuel shipped through that pipeline.  The world still needs oil and BC still uses it.  The fact of the matter is, BC, that without those pipelines, you are just as landlocked as our oil is - you aren't getting out without what's shipped through those pipes.  

The Incredible Shrinking Caucus

Just before noon on Friday, Jason Kenney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed and leader of the Official Opposition released a statement officially barring Derek Fildebrandt from returning to the UCP caucus.  Fildebrandt had attended court Friday morning to respond to illegal hunting charges from November, 2017 which first hit the news cycle in December of 2017.  At that time, Kenney told reporters that Fildebrandt could apply to be reinstated but "would discourage him from doing so unless or until he's resolved any outstanding issues."  (That article is a great read through the lens of recent information by the way).

It's certainly possible Derek received a blow to the ego when Kenney released his statement; for too long it seemed as if the most popular Wildrose MLA in the province could reach no low which was too low.  Flaunting fiduciary duties and the law didn't seem to take the wind from his sails.  Certainly, some conservatives had their feathers ruffled but it wasn't until the final accusation, "related to unlawful hunting practices", that this pundit feels went too far for the base.  And a cautionary tale to those who can't seem to get away with everything; when the boss calls you in for an "executive grilling" and you don't think he knows about your latest escapade; he knows.

Photo credit @UCPCaucus on Twitter

Fildebrandt, however, was already out of caucus.  Don MacIntyre, MLA for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake gave his notice to the caucus around noon on Friday.  He then tweeted that he was leaving politics to focus on family.  A publication ban is in place but several news outlets broke the story anyway, that the (former?) MLA was facing criminal charges.  Commentary is flowing freely among the unbound public if anyone is interested in finding out more.  While neither Fildebrandt nor MacIntyre left of their own volition (really), it is unlikely they will be the last to shake off those depressing shades of blue.

Having not been seen in the Legislature and being noticeably absent from Kenney's swearing-in ceremony, it is expected that Brian Jean, MLA Fort McMurray - Conklin, will be stepping down as well.  Some might say it's sour grapes and others might say it's a simple 'F' you to the new leader.  My money's on the latter even though I am prepared for a sincere "I want to spend more time with my family" statement.

But the other unknown at this point is who will be leading the Alberta Party and whether their leadership will provide any unhappily shackled MLAs with the motivation to move on.  The successful candidate, between contenders Rick Fraser, MLA for Calgary-South East, Kara Levis, Calgary Energy Lawyer and former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel will take on the Official Opposition and the Governing Party with their version of Alberta's brighter future and who knows what will happen?

For those of you who have lost track since 2015, the PC party lost one MLA in 2016, and then technically lost seven in 2017, the UCP lost two in 2017 and four so far in 2018, the NDP gained one (from the PCs) and lost one (to the Alberta Party), and the Alberta party has gained two - one from the right and one from the left.  I hate to say it, but this could turn out to be a livelier year in provincial politics than the last.

Update: Brian Jean announced his departure from the Alberta Legislature and the UCP caucus on March 5, 2018.

2017; the Year of the Leadership Races

2017 was an exceptionally exciting year in Alberta provincial politics; not only were two political parties buried (one without so much as a brief eulogy) but Albertans were treated to FIVE leadership races.  Launched in October of 2016 but maintaining air space in the first quarter of 2017 was the PC Leadership race, easily taken by Kenney and his merry band of Wildrose supporters on March 18.  Next in line came the Alberta Liberal Party race which saw their fears of an acclaimed leader evaporate when Nolan Crouse, the only declared candidate, decided not to run.

By April, David Khan and Kerry Cundal signed up and shook the Liberal base with a little controversy to deliver more excitement than the party had seen in years. The Wildrose/UCP leadership contest began immediately after the unity vote on July 22 and managed to attract enough contestants with very, very deep pockets to start the party off with almost a half-million dollar pot.  The Green Party of Alberta snuck in their own leadership race and announced Romy Tittel as their new leader in November a mere week before Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark surprised members and non with his resignation which triggered the fifth, and final, leadership race of 2017.

In March of 2017, delegates from around the province overwhelmingly chose to euthanize the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta by electing Jason Kenney.  The party that was once most recognizably the party of the fiscally and socially responsible Peter Lougheed has since been recreated in the image of one of their more controversial leaders, Ralph Klein.  Klein led the province from severe austerity to tax decreases and showering citizens with rebate checks affectionately, or offensively, known as "Ralph bucks".  He also paid off a sizable portion of the provincial debt, though not all, so it would seem as if some of Ralph's worshippers are just happy about the pretty sign.

The Alberta Liberal Party race revealed, yet again, a push to "unite the centre".  Former leader Dr. David Swann had reached out to the Alberta Party in 2010 to form a united front against the left and right wings but was unsuccessful.  Laurie Blakeman, a Liberal MLA in Edmonton Centre, proposed the idea in 2015 and was also unsuccessful.  As the outcome of the 2017 leadership race would suggest, almost half of the Liberal membership believe there should be a united movement for the moderate conservatives in Alberta.  And since we're talking about moderate conservatives, Brian Jean should have had their votes in the Wildrose/UCP.

There were a lot of people who believed Brian Jean had a real chance against Jason Kenney in the UCP Leadership race.  Brian Jean went from being a relatively unknown backbench MP for the Conservative Party of Canada to a household name in Alberta politics.  Brian Jean was the backbone of the moderate-conservatives in the Wildrose party.  Former PCs who were tired of the entitlement, and previously afraid of the Wildrose social conservatives, found in Brian Jean someone they could trust. Brian Jean stood steadfastedly against Kenney's social conservative base; at first.  In a strategically daft move, Brian Jean tried to entice Kenney's more right wing voter base which likely alienated his support.

Jason Kenney won the UCP leadership with slightly more than 60% of over 60,000 votes.  Brian Jean then declined a Party role and has hardly been seen in the legislature since which has caused rumblings of speculation that he will resign early in 2018.  Rounding out the year in leadership races was the Alberta Party whose race had hardly begun by the end of December with only one declared candidate, Kara Levis.  A little birdy told me today that another is about to declare shortly so we will have much to talk about by the end of the week.

Happy New Year to all you political observers; may you have fortitude, inspiration and wit to stay politically engaged throughout another year :)

UCP: Reviving Ralph Klein

It was a beautiful evening in downtown Calgary on Wednesday; the chinook had settled in and the wind was muted among the turn of the century buildings of 8th Avenue.  The UCP was holding a "Ralph Revival" at the St. Louis Hotel, a favourite watering hole of former Premier Ralph Klein.  Included in the $150 ticket price was a black t-shirt with a tuxedo print and the UCP logo, two drink tickets and Chicken on the Way.  A number of volunteers acted as registrars, coat check minders and wait staff.

I was fashionably late, arriving at 5:20 pm because I work and couldn't manage to leave early for the 4:30 pm start.  The room was bustling, mostly with men between the ages of 45 and 65 and the conversation seemed lively.  Since its renovation, the tavern is a blank slate and that night it had stand-up bar tables four or five deep along the middle of the room.  The room was warm, its occupants jovial and the air hummed with optimistic chatter. I looked around for some familiar faces and went to say hello.

"Don't you ever get tired of hanging out with the UCP crowd?"  I was asked.  Partially in jest, there is a genuine curiosity to that question and I laughed.  Answering honestly, I replied "Not at all; you say the most interesting things".  I was introduced to the table and welcomed into the conversation.  Within moments, a gentleman to my right asked a gentleman to my left "what do you think about the Alberta Party not running a candidate in the by-election?" 

The gentleman who responded was a former Alberta resident who now lives and operates an oil and gas company in Manitoba.  He was "forced out", he said, by the Stelmach royalty review.  "I think the Alberta Party is the smartest opposition party in the legislature" said one, "but they need to show up." "What do you think about the government's candidate?" Asked another.  "This could be a real shot for David Khan if he can beat the NDP candidate" offered someone else.  No one suggested there was a chance Kenney wouldn't win.

After a few minutes, I picked up my chicken in a box and found a less crowded table.  I befriended a friendly 40-something woman and she told me she used to work for a Reform MP in Ottawa.  She said she felt like it was time to see what was going on here and if she wanted to be involved.  She dragged her husband along, she said, because he wasn't really into politics but she spent time at sporting events so this was his way of giving back.  He was a dentist so I asked him what he thought of the proposed fee guidelines.  As they had just been released that evening, he hadn't had time to go over them but he said that because of the sterilization requirements in Alberta "there isn't an office in the rest of Canada that would meet Alberta standards."  He said it costs more to do business here to keep up with those regulations.  Personally, I think the fee guides are to pull costs closer together so people don't have to shop around for dental work but we were interrupted by Richard Gotfried's call to attention as the speeches were about to begin.

The first person invited to the podium was Leela Aheer's son who sang "O Canada"; that young man has an incredibly clear, strong voice which needed no technological amplification and it was joined by a number of individuals in the crowd.  Next we heard from an avid volunteer who became interested in politics when he was 14.  Ron Stevens, former PC MLA for Calgary Glenmore from 1997 to 2012, had caught the young man applying some graffiti to the side of a local building.  Stevens, as the story was told, did not chase the youth away or call the police. Instead, the MLA engaged the youth and invited him door knocking.  He happily explained that it was enough to turn his energy towards politics, where he remains a volunteer 6 or so years later.  It was this kindness and introduction to a new direction that made him want to be involved in a youth engagement strategy with the UCP.  He then explained that proceeds from the live and silent auction items would help fund their work.

Kenney spoke next and delivered a brief speech in a pace that rivaled the auctioneer who succeeded him.  Beginning with the "surplus of common sense of Ralph Klein" (perhaps for adopting changes Kenney advocated for as Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayer Federation), he nodded to the Klein government's decision "to do the right thing".  That "thing" was unexplained.  Klein is oft-admired for paying off Alberta's debt but I have yet to hear his fans remind Albertans how he paid off the debt; see: lowest personal return for tax investment in Canada.  I can't help but question why it is that Albertans are so lucky to have the lowest taxes, highest personal wealth and more money spent on them per capita by a doting, if misguided, government.  I highly doubt the "right thing" Kenney referred to involves actually paying for government services.

The crowd thinned out very quickly as 8:00 pm approached.  A few were heading to a nearby drinking establishment and I declined to join.  When I had my coat and t-shirt in hand, I stopped to say goodbye to a woman I'd met on a few occasions previously.  When asked if I had met Kenney, I shook my head and told her I wasn't really interested in doing so.  She told me she was giving the UCP six months before making her decision; she wanted to see if the party really did support women.  "He gave both Leela and Angela high-level appointments, which is smart, but it might just be good politics" she told me.  "I'll know in six months if I'm going to stay" she said.  Her declaration made me realize once again that we shouldn't discount UCP supporters so quickly; there are a number of smart and talented people in politics and they support different parties for different reasons.  As I walked back to my car I considered that the UCP may have hit their high note in 2017; the level of support for Trumpian politics in this province may well be at a ceiling rather than a floor.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and also the executive as VP Membership. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.

So You're Not Running a Candidate in Calgary-Lougheed

After a stellar showing at their AGM over the weekend, the Alberta Party officially announced Tuesday it would not be running a candidate in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election this Christmas season. A statement from the Party said they would instead abide by parliamentary tradition and allow three opposition leaders without a seat in the legislature, and the government, to duke it out while they prepared for a leadership race.  While one UCP supporter claimed announcing the outcome of the by-election was a "foregone conclusion" was defeatist, does anyone really believe Jason Kenney picked Calgary-Lougheed because he might have to work for it?   While this author took a stab at predicting who would step down for Kenney earlier this year, I missed the obvious benefit of removing the longest serving Calgary MLA, Dave Rodney; my bad.

Photo Credit: Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press

Referred to as a "stronghold", incumbents have the best chance of re-election, especially those who have been re-elected three times.  Naturally, if not an incumbent, the incumbent's party leader.   The NDP had to run a candidate because they are the government and it's quite likely they held back from announcing the date of the by-election until they found someone who could be everything that Kenney wasn't (and also take away some bragging rights from the AB Libs).

When fighting a social conservative college drop out who "served" his country by grandstanding on decades old belief systems, there's few better to enter the ring than a happily married gay doctor.  Dr. Phillip van der Merwe takes the edge on a single gay lawyer by having already made a lifetime commitment to another in the eyes of the law and of course God, who witnesses all marital unions.  Oh, and the Alberta Green Party leader is running as well.

The Alberta Party can happily leave this definite hot mess alone.  Kenney only has good old faith in traditional marriage, anti-carbon tax, anti-socialism, anti-compassion and a pie-in-the-sky promise that economic miracles will abound if he forms government in 2019.  The NDP will run on policy, GSAs and the fact that the economy is getting better even without Jason Kenney's magic conservative wand.  David Khan will run on his anti-PAC advocacy and hope that Trudeau shows up to knock on a door or two.  I imagine Kenney is hoping for the same since it seems he'd rather be facing off with Trudeau anyway.

While some are trying to set the narrative that the Alberta Party was either too weak or lonesome to run a candidate, UCP supporters on social media are obsessing about the Alberta Party and not the by-election.  It would appear the Alberta Party doesn't have to enter a by-election to take headlines or energy away from the UCP and it's highly probable that annoys them more than anything else.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and also the executive as VP Membership. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1992.

UCP: From or Into the Ashes?

It's been quite the week and a half since UCP members overwhelmingly chose Jason Kenney as their Leader.  Despite publishing the results before the official announcement, people without cell phones or internet were still quite excited to find out who won.  "We don't care in this party what God you worship or who you love.." Kenney declared to a crowd of both ecstatic and disappointed observers.  That little shocker aside, we've heard it all before.

Walking around the room, I spoke with a number of people.  Of all my conversations, the most difficult was with Leela Aheer who suggested I join her board.  I've spoken with her at a few events this year and  I like Leela, I really do; I just don't understand why she is a UCP member.

Granted, she whole-heartedly supported the more likable Brian Jean but after almost two weeks, she is still there.  Perhaps her promotion to Deputy Leader the morning after gave her hope she may wield some influence.  Dave Rodney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed stepped down the day after the announcement to allow Jason "I'm in no rush to get into the legislature" Kenney to run for a seat in the legislature.

A number of people migrated to the Wildrose when they were fed up with the PC party.  Alberta has historically been a conservative province and they don't appreciate government waste.  There was a large group of recently-Wildrose-now-UCP members supporting Brian Jean who were part of that migration: fiscal conservatives who were also either socially liberal or socially libertarian. In either case, they don't identify with Jason Kenney's social conservatism.

Kenney did other political parties in Alberta a favour by running for the PC leadership and he did them an even bigger favour by uniting with the Wildrose.  Through the subsequent leadership race conservatives were offered three options:  Doug Schweitzer who campaigned to the young and centre-right, Kenney to the staunch social conservatives and Brian Jean held up the centre to middle right.  Although they tried not to fracture the newly-formed party, the vast difference between the leadership candidates ensured the culmination of that race would benefit someone other than the UCP.

Most polls proclaimed if the election were held yesterday, the UCP would win.  Polls also said that UCP would have more support under Brian Jean than Jason Kenney but that was then.  This week, Jason Kenney decided not to take Rob Breakenridge's advice and opposed Bill 24, a bill that legislates children's privacy in being a member of a Gay-Straight Alliance club at their school (Breakenridge has written four articles in 2017 regarding Kenney and social conservatism).

In a vote on the second reading of Bill 24, legislation that allows for the creation of Gay Straight Alliances, only 8 UCP MLAs attended to vote on record; and they all voted against the Bill.  Derek Fildebrandt, the independent but highly partisan MLA for Strathmore-Brooks also voted against the Bill.

Leela Aheer, MLA for Chestermere - Rockyview gave an impassioned speech acknowledging the need for GSAs prior to the vote but did not return to vote; neither did MLA for Grande Prairie - Smoky Todd Loewen nor Prasad Panda MLA for Calgary-Foothills, who were also present prior to the 15 minute division.  Adding salt to the already open wound, Mike Ellis, UCP MLA for Calgary-West presented an amendment to remove section 9 from Bill 24 the next morning.  In his statement, Ellis accused the government of providing sexual education without parental consent through GSAs.

Seeing people defend their membership in a party that now has a leader they fundamentally disagree with has been enlightening.  They disagree with the leadership directive but they are defending their choice to stay or, worse, remaining silent.  There is no reason to stay loyal to a party that has existed for all of four months except one: those aforementioned polls.  If the MLAs cannot or will not stand up for what they believe in then it would seem they aren't worth the votes that put them there.  If they wish to stand for the  principles they claim to have, there is no time like the present to remove themselves from the heat of Kenney's socially conservative agenda.  The Lake of Fire 2.0 will not be as kind to the party the second time around.