Will Ontario Bring Hope Back to the Federal Conservatives?

In the past three years, provincial election results have been surprising political observers. Most notably, the Alberta electorate voted in a majority NDP government in 2015 toppling the 44 year "dynasty" of the Progressive Conservative Party.  Later that same year, Newfoundland removed the PCs in favour of the Liberals in a "landslide victory".  Manitoba, which had been governed by the NDP for almost 17 years, elected a PC majority in 2016.

Things were looking up for the federal/provincial conservative forces until the following year when BC's blue Liberals were taken down by a Green-NDP coalition after 16 years in power.   After being unceremoniously ousted federally, Conservatives have been looking to provincial elections with the hope that the tide may be turning.  In just two days, Ontario heads to the polls to choose between Doug Ford's PC Party and Andrea Horwath's NDP.  The Liberals were hardly even in contention according to the polls but after Kathleen Wynne stepped down on Saturday, it is unlikely her plea to reelect a now leaderless Liberal government will be heeded.

Unlike the BC Liberals, the Liberals in Ontario were not considered to be "friends" of federal  Conservatives but an NDP majority in Ontario will be a major blow to Conservative hopefuls.  An NDP government in Ontario certainly doesn't mean things will be copacetic for Alberta either if BC-Alberta relations are anything to go by.  Horwath has received an endorsement from the federal NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, but as one astute commentator pointed out, such an endorsement hasn't come to the Alberta NDP, and they likely wouldn't want one.

Ontario has been enjoying (?) a whirlwind in provincial politics not wholly unlike that in Alberta.  Patrick Brown, a former CPC MP under Harper, won the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership in 2017.  His socially conservative voting record while a federal MP was an easy point of attack by the socially progressive Wynne government.  From within Brown's own party some members gave voice to a fear of "social conservative" support that would move the party further to the right.  Brown resigned under duress from caucus in January of 2018 after allegations of sexual assault.

Mark Blinch/The Canadian Press

Doug Ford, brother of former Toronto Mayor the late Rob Ford, was elected to the leadership role of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party in March after what was termed a "contentious" vote.  Ford was a Toronto City Councilor under his brother Rob and was previously involved in managing operations at his family's business.  Ford also holds socially conservative views but said his caucus would be granted freedom to vote their conscience.  A similar pledge from the Conservative Party leader in Alberta has seen limited success.

Like Kenney, Ford has the backing of fundamentalists and traditional family values advocates but Ford himself said in 2014 the Progressive Conservative party needed to be socially progressive.  In the weeks leading up to the election, Ford has been accused of collecting personal information for 'fake' party memberships to interfere in candidate nominations in 2016 and appointing candidates instead of allowing open nomination races.  Yesterday information about a legal matter Ford is currently involved in was made public.  His brother Rob's widow is suing him and his other brother for 16.5 million related to "mismanagement" of Rob's estate.

Earlier this year, Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives were considered the only alternative to the provincial Liberals.   Polling over the last month, which is never a certainty for election day, showed the Ontario PC's tied with the NDP and the governing Liberals in a distant third.  Ontario's NDP, led by Andrea Horwath, have seen increasing support that has taken them from third party to within reach of forming government.

A second poll showed a "surge" in support that put the NDP ahead of the PCs.  Maclean's released results from an online poll as well that suggests people who are "paying attention" support conservatives while people who are "not paying attention" overwhelmingly support the NDP.  While that tidbit will be fodder for Conservatives to claim many things, it also means the NDP supporters will not be as easily reached since they are "not paying attention".

In a third poll by ONpulse they had determined the Ontario election is "too close to call" but that poll was completed before Kathleen Wynne stepped down on Saturday morning.  The Ontario Liberals now have to fight from third place without a leader.  Wynne had acknowledged in her "sorry, not sorry" statement that she was unpopular but leaving the Liberals without a leader can hardly be a winning strategy.  As noted by some, she may have given Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP the boost it needed to take the election from the PC's.  T minus 42 hours...