The Numbers Game

On Thursday, the Alberta Party released its membership numbers.  To some, like Lorne Gunter, the UCP-immersed columnist for the Edmonton Sun, it was an exercise in over-confidence.  Their numbers, now exceeding 6,500, are in the realm of what the Official Opposition leader Jason Kenney claimed the PC Party had... in 2016.  Before Kenney began his quest to unite the wayward conservatives from the PC Party back with "true" conservatives from the Wildrose Party, the PC Party membership had, according to him, plummeted to ~6,500.

Of course, it's not true but it makes for a fantastic tale of personal accomplishment.  Imagine if he actually had taken a party with 6,500 members to 40,000 in a few short months; now that would be an achievement!  The reality though, is not even Stephen Harper's number two managed such a feat.

Former PCAA board members confirm the PC party had around 26,000 members in July of 2016.  By the start of the leadership race in October, that number was around 30,000.  In March of 2017, the party boasted over 40,000 members.  For context, the membership numbers during the 2014 PCAA leadership race were ~77,000.

From October 2016 to March 2017, around 10,000 PC memberships were sold, or ~2,500 per month.  According to the info-graphic from the Alberta Party, they had 1,650 members in November of 2017 and now have 6,600.  The leadership race began in December so they sold ~2,475 per month.  Is there any certainty the PCs would have sold 10,000 memberships in a two month race or that the AP would have sold almost 10,000 in a four month race?  No.  What they did do was sell around the same amount on a monthly basis and that is not as insignificant as some would like you to believe.

While there are going to be detractors and celebrators, political party membership is small.  Approximately 4-6% of the population bothers to buy memberships yet over 50% vote.  It would be a mistake to believe that both the NDP and Conservative parties aren't paying attention.  The centre of the political spectrum is where most Albertans are and neither the NDP nor the UCP can allow the other to move in on that space.  So they will keep pushing each other further left, and right, and allow plenty of room for a party whose policies are in line with both fiscally and socially responsible voters.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and VP Membership for the same. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.  Today is also the first day of my two week staycation and I'm still in my pjs. Cheers.