The Numbers Game

On Thursday, the Alberta Party released its membership numbers.  To some, like Lorne Gunter, the UCP-immersed columnist for the Edmonton Sun, it was an exercise in over-confidence.  Their numbers, now exceeding 6,500, are in the realm of what the Official Opposition leader Jason Kenney claimed the PC Party had... in 2016.  Before Kenney began his quest to unite the wayward conservatives from the PC Party back with "true" conservatives from the Wildrose Party, the PC Party membership had, according to him, plummeted to ~6,500.

Of course, it's not true but it makes for a fantastic tale of personal accomplishment.  Imagine if he actually had taken a party with 6,500 members to 40,000 in a few short months; now that would be an achievement!  The reality though, is not even Stephen Harper's number two managed such a feat.

Former PCAA board members confirm the PC party had around 26,000 members in July of 2016.  By the start of the leadership race in October, that number was around 30,000.  In March of 2017, the party boasted over 40,000 members.  For context, the membership numbers during the 2014 PCAA leadership race were ~77,000.

From October 2016 to March 2017, around 10,000 PC memberships were sold, or ~2,500 per month.  According to the info-graphic from the Alberta Party, they had 1,650 members in November of 2017 and now have 6,600.  The leadership race began in December so they sold ~2,475 per month.  Is there any certainty the PCs would have sold 10,000 memberships in a two month race or that the AP would have sold almost 10,000 in a four month race?  No.  What they did do was sell around the same amount on a monthly basis and that is not as insignificant as some would like you to believe.

While there are going to be detractors and celebrators, political party membership is small.  Approximately 4-6% of the population bothers to buy memberships yet over 50% vote.  It would be a mistake to believe that both the NDP and Conservative parties aren't paying attention.  The centre of the political spectrum is where most Albertans are and neither the NDP nor the UCP can allow the other to move in on that space.  So they will keep pushing each other further left, and right, and allow plenty of room for a party whose policies are in line with both fiscally and socially responsible voters.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and VP Membership for the same. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.  Today is also the first day of my two week staycation and I'm still in my pjs. Cheers.

Unpopular Opinion: Premier Notley Got it Wrong

In a stunningly bad move by the Alberta NDP, Premier Rachel Notley held a live presser today and announced the Alberta Liquor and Gaming Commission would immediately stop importing BC wine.  This is in addition to the Alberta government ceasing talks with BC to import electricity from the Site C Dam last week.  Jason Kenney has been egging this on from the sidelines for over a year and the NDP finally took the bait.  But Kenney missed the opportunity when he agreed, albeit backhandedly, with the Premier's decision.

Entering into a trade war with the closest port we have access to seems like a bad idea on most days

hellobc.com

but it feels worse as the Alberta economy is still hiking out of a recession. We don't need a trade war. The Alberta-Saskatchewan license plate debacle was bad enough and that was pretty lame compared to this. No matter what happens from this point, BC still holds has checkmate; they can delay the pipeline expansion while they commission environmental impact assessments. 

While BC NDP holds off "big oil" with their millions or billions of dollars keeping them afloat, Premier Notley struck back at small and medium-sized businesses and "family farms".  In response, BC is looking into how they can retaliate (there's a reason society finally accepted the logical fallacy of that "eye for an eye" thing).  Sure, this might be a popular response from a Premier but it's not smart.  What happens if BC restaurants do decide to stop serving Alberta Beef?  What happens if they decide to get on board with those who oppose the pipeline?  What happens if they find other ways to block Alberta's access to tidewater? Two wrongs don't make a right and the Premier made a bad decision - as if Kenney agreeing with her doesn't speak loudly enough.

kindermorgan.com

This decision has worse consequences for Alberta than it does for BC.  I understand that something needed to be done but we had the rule of law on our side.  We had the constitution on our side.  Now, we have become petty.  That's not what I want from my government - populism be damned.  We stand to lose a lot more over infighting.

The fact of the matter is that the pipeline is ALREADY in the ground.  It has been there for over 50 years.  A fifty year old pipeline is going to be upgraded to 2017 standards and BC is opposing that for what reason?  I mean seriously.  Do the residents of BC prefer the old one?  Because it's already there.  Kinder Morgan is doing you a favour by upgrading it; why are you on board with the government holding that up?  Newer technology, the ability to replace old, worn parts; how do you lose?  

If you fly out of #YVR, you are relying on fuel shipped through that pipeline.  The world still needs oil and BC still uses it.  The fact of the matter is, BC, that without those pipelines, you are just as landlocked as our oil is - you aren't getting out without what's shipped through those pipes.  

The Incredible Shrinking Caucus

Just before noon on Friday, Jason Kenney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed and leader of the Official Opposition released a statement officially barring Derek Fildebrandt from returning to the UCP caucus.  Fildebrandt had attended court Friday morning to respond to illegal hunting charges from November, 2017 which first hit the news cycle in December of 2017.  At that time, Kenney told reporters that Fildebrandt could apply to be reinstated but "would discourage him from doing so unless or until he's resolved any outstanding issues."  (That article is a great read through the lens of recent information by the way).

It's certainly possible Derek received a blow to the ego when Kenney released his statement; for too long it seemed as if the most popular Wildrose MLA in the province could reach no low which was too low.  Flaunting fiduciary duties and the law didn't seem to take the wind from his sails.  Certainly, some conservatives had their feathers ruffled but it wasn't until the final accusation, "related to unlawful hunting practices", that this pundit feels went too far for the base.  And a cautionary tale to those who can't seem to get away with everything; when the boss calls you in for an "executive grilling" and you don't think he knows about your latest escapade; he knows.

Photo credit @UCPCaucus on Twitter

Fildebrandt, however, was already out of caucus.  Don MacIntyre, MLA for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake gave his notice to the caucus around noon on Friday.  He then tweeted that he was leaving politics to focus on family.  A publication ban is in place but several news outlets broke the story anyway, that the (former?) MLA was facing criminal charges.  Commentary is flowing freely among the unbound public if anyone is interested in finding out more.  While neither Fildebrandt nor MacIntyre left of their own volition (really), it is unlikely they will be the last to shake off those depressing shades of blue.

Having not been seen in the Legislature and being noticeably absent from Kenney's swearing-in ceremony, it is expected that Brian Jean, MLA Fort McMurray - Conklin, will be stepping down as well.  Some might say it's sour grapes and others might say it's a simple 'F' you to the new leader.  My money's on the latter even though I am prepared for a sincere "I want to spend more time with my family" statement.

But the other unknown at this point is who will be leading the Alberta Party and whether their leadership will provide any unhappily shackled MLAs with the motivation to move on.  The successful candidate, between contenders Rick Fraser, MLA for Calgary-South East, Kara Levis, Calgary Energy Lawyer and former Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel will take on the Official Opposition and the Governing Party with their version of Alberta's brighter future and who knows what will happen?

For those of you who have lost track since 2015, the PC party lost one MLA in 2016, and then technically lost seven in 2017, the UCP lost two in 2017 and four so far in 2018, the NDP gained one (from the PCs) and lost one (to the Alberta Party), and the Alberta party has gained two - one from the right and one from the left.  I hate to say it, but this could turn out to be a livelier year in provincial politics than the last.

Update: Brian Jean announced his departure from the Alberta Legislature and the UCP caucus on March 5, 2018.