UCP: Reviving Ralph Klein

It was a beautiful evening in downtown Calgary on Wednesday; the chinook had settled in and the wind was muted among the turn of the century buildings of 8th Avenue.  The UCP was holding a "Ralph Revival" at the St. Louis Hotel, a favourite watering hole of former Premier Ralph Klein.  Included in the $150 ticket price was a black t-shirt with a tuxedo print and the UCP logo, two drink tickets and Chicken on the Way.  A number of volunteers acted as registrars, coat check minders and wait staff.

I was fashionably late, arriving at 5:20 pm because I work and couldn't manage to leave early for the 4:30 pm start.  The room was bustling, mostly with men between the ages of 45 and 65 and the conversation seemed lively.  Since its renovation, the tavern is a blank slate and that night it had stand-up bar tables four or five deep along the middle of the room.  The room was warm, its occupants jovial and the air hummed with optimistic chatter. I looked around for some familiar faces and went to say hello.

"Don't you ever get tired of hanging out with the UCP crowd?"  I was asked.  Partially in jest, there is a genuine curiosity to that question and I laughed.  Answering honestly, I replied "Not at all; you say the most interesting things".  I was introduced to the table and welcomed into the conversation.  Within moments, a gentleman to my right asked a gentleman to my left "what do you think about the Alberta Party not running a candidate in the by-election?" 

The gentleman who responded was a former Alberta resident who now lives and operates an oil and gas company in Manitoba.  He was "forced out", he said, by the Stelmach royalty review.  "I think the Alberta Party is the smartest opposition party in the legislature" said one, "but they need to show up." "What do you think about the government's candidate?" Asked another.  "This could be a real shot for David Khan if he can beat the NDP candidate" offered someone else.  No one suggested there was a chance Kenney wouldn't win.

After a few minutes, I picked up my chicken in a box and found a less crowded table.  I befriended a friendly 40-something woman and she told me she used to work for a Reform MP in Ottawa.  She said she felt like it was time to see what was going on here and if she wanted to be involved.  She dragged her husband along, she said, because he wasn't really into politics but she spent time at sporting events so this was his way of giving back.  He was a dentist so I asked him what he thought of the proposed fee guidelines.  As they had just been released that evening, he hadn't had time to go over them but he said that because of the sterilization requirements in Alberta "there isn't an office in the rest of Canada that would meet Alberta standards."  He said it costs more to do business here to keep up with those regulations.  Personally, I think the fee guides are to pull costs closer together so people don't have to shop around for dental work but we were interrupted by Richard Gotfried's call to attention as the speeches were about to begin.

The first person invited to the podium was Leela Aheer's son who sang "O Canada"; that young man has an incredibly clear, strong voice which needed no technological amplification and it was joined by a number of individuals in the crowd.  Next we heard from an avid volunteer who became interested in politics when he was 14.  Ron Stevens, former PC MLA for Calgary Glenmore from 1997 to 2012, had caught the young man applying some graffiti to the side of a local building.  Stevens, as the story was told, did not chase the youth away or call the police. Instead, the MLA engaged the youth and invited him door knocking.  He happily explained that it was enough to turn his energy towards politics, where he remains a volunteer 6 or so years later.  It was this kindness and introduction to a new direction that made him want to be involved in a youth engagement strategy with the UCP.  He then explained that proceeds from the live and silent auction items would help fund their work.

Kenney spoke next and delivered a brief speech in a pace that rivaled the auctioneer who succeeded him.  Beginning with the "surplus of common sense of Ralph Klein" (perhaps for adopting changes Kenney advocated for as Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayer Federation), he nodded to the Klein government's decision "to do the right thing".  That "thing" was unexplained.  Klein is oft-admired for paying off Alberta's debt but I have yet to hear his fans remind Albertans how he paid off the debt; see: lowest personal return for tax investment in Canada.  I can't help but question why it is that Albertans are so lucky to have the lowest taxes, highest personal wealth and more money spent on them per capita by a doting, if misguided, government.  I highly doubt the "right thing" Kenney referred to involves actually paying for government services.

The crowd thinned out very quickly as 8:00 pm approached.  A few were heading to a nearby drinking establishment and I declined to join.  When I had my coat and t-shirt in hand, I stopped to say goodbye to a woman I'd met on a few occasions previously.  When asked if I had met Kenney, I shook my head and told her I wasn't really interested in doing so.  She told me she was giving the UCP six months before making her decision; she wanted to see if the party really did support women.  "He gave both Leela and Angela high-level appointments, which is smart, but it might just be good politics" she told me.  "I'll know in six months if I'm going to stay" she said.  Her declaration made me realize once again that we shouldn't discount UCP supporters so quickly; there are a number of smart and talented people in politics and they support different parties for different reasons.  As I walked back to my car I considered that the UCP may have hit their high note in 2017; the level of support for Trumpian politics in this province may well be at a ceiling rather than a floor.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and also the executive as VP Membership. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1991.

So You're Not Running a Candidate in Calgary-Lougheed

After a stellar showing at their AGM over the weekend, the Alberta Party officially announced Tuesday it would not be running a candidate in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election this Christmas season. A statement from the Party said they would instead abide by parliamentary tradition and allow three opposition leaders without a seat in the legislature, and the government, to duke it out while they prepared for a leadership race.  While one UCP supporter claimed announcing the outcome of the by-election was a "foregone conclusion" was defeatist, does anyone really believe Jason Kenney picked Calgary-Lougheed because he might have to work for it?   While this author took a stab at predicting who would step down for Kenney earlier this year, I missed the obvious benefit of removing the longest serving Calgary MLA, Dave Rodney; my bad.

Photo Credit: Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press

Referred to as a "stronghold", incumbents have the best chance of re-election, especially those who have been re-elected three times.  Naturally, if not an incumbent, the incumbent's party leader.   The NDP had to run a candidate because they are the government and it's quite likely they held back from announcing the date of the by-election until they found someone who could be everything that Kenney wasn't (and also take away some bragging rights from the AB Libs).

When fighting a social conservative college drop out who "served" his country by grandstanding on decades old belief systems, there's few better to enter the ring than a happily married gay doctor.  Dr. Phillip van der Merwe takes the edge on a single gay lawyer by having already made a lifetime commitment to another in the eyes of the law and of course God, who witnesses all marital unions.  Oh, and the Alberta Green Party leader is running as well.

The Alberta Party can happily leave this definite hot mess alone.  Kenney only has good old faith in traditional marriage, anti-carbon tax, anti-socialism, anti-compassion and a pie-in-the-sky promise that economic miracles will abound if he forms government in 2019.  The NDP will run on policy, GSAs and the fact that the economy is getting better even without Jason Kenney's magic conservative wand.  David Khan will run on his anti-PAC advocacy and hope that Trudeau shows up to knock on a door or two.  I imagine Kenney is hoping for the same since it seems he'd rather be facing off with Trudeau anyway.

While some are trying to set the narrative that the Alberta Party was either too weak or lonesome to run a candidate, UCP supporters on social media are obsessing about the Alberta Party and not the by-election.  It would appear the Alberta Party doesn't have to enter a by-election to take headlines or energy away from the UCP and it's highly probable that annoys them more than anything else.

Disclaimer: As of November 17, 2017, author is on the board of directors for the Alberta Party and also the executive as VP Membership. Former: member of Youth Justice Committee, Age-Friendly Steering Committee, Environmental Committee, Westerner Days Committee, and Miss Blackfalds 1992.

UCP: From or Into the Ashes?

It's been quite the week and a half since UCP members overwhelmingly chose Jason Kenney as their Leader.  Despite publishing the results before the official announcement, people without cell phones or internet were still quite excited to find out who won.  "We don't care in this party what God you worship or who you love.." Kenney declared to a crowd of both ecstatic and disappointed observers.  That little shocker aside, we've heard it all before.

Walking around the room, I spoke with a number of people.  Of all my conversations, the most difficult was with Leela Aheer who suggested I join her board.  I've spoken with her at a few events this year and  I like Leela, I really do; I just don't understand why she is a UCP member.

Granted, she whole-heartedly supported the more likable Brian Jean but after almost two weeks, she is still there.  Perhaps her promotion to Deputy Leader the morning after gave her hope she may wield some influence.  Dave Rodney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed stepped down the day after the announcement to allow Jason "I'm in no rush to get into the legislature" Kenney to run for a seat in the legislature.

A number of people migrated to the Wildrose when they were fed up with the PC party.  Alberta has historically been a conservative province and they don't appreciate government waste.  There was a large group of recently-Wildrose-now-UCP members supporting Brian Jean who were part of that migration: fiscal conservatives who were also either socially liberal or socially libertarian. In either case, they don't identify with Jason Kenney's social conservatism.

Kenney did other political parties in Alberta a favour by running for the PC leadership and he did them an even bigger favour by uniting with the Wildrose.  Through the subsequent leadership race conservatives were offered three options:  Doug Schweitzer who campaigned to the young and centre-right, Kenney to the staunch social conservatives and Brian Jean held up the centre to middle right.  Although they tried not to fracture the newly-formed party, the vast difference between the leadership candidates ensured the culmination of that race would benefit someone other than the UCP.

Most polls proclaimed if the election were held yesterday, the UCP would win.  Polls also said that UCP would have more support under Brian Jean than Jason Kenney but that was then.  This week, Jason Kenney decided not to take Rob Breakenridge's advice and opposed Bill 24, a bill that legislates children's privacy in being a member of a Gay-Straight Alliance club at their school (Breakenridge has written four articles in 2017 regarding Kenney and social conservatism).

In a vote on the second reading of Bill 24, legislation that allows for the creation of Gay Straight Alliances, only 8 UCP MLAs attended to vote on record; and they all voted against the Bill.  Derek Fildebrandt, the independent but highly partisan MLA for Strathmore-Brooks also voted against the Bill.

Leela Aheer, MLA for Chestermere - Rockyview gave an impassioned speech acknowledging the need for GSAs prior to the vote but did not return to vote; neither did MLA for Grande Prairie - Smoky Todd Loewen nor Prasad Panda MLA for Calgary-Foothills, who were also present prior to the 15 minute division.  Adding salt to the already open wound, Mike Ellis, UCP MLA for Calgary-West presented an amendment to remove section 9 from Bill 24 the next morning.  In his statement, Ellis accused the government of providing sexual education without parental consent through GSAs.

Seeing people defend their membership in a party that now has a leader they fundamentally disagree with has been enlightening.  They disagree with the leadership directive but they are defending their choice to stay or, worse, remaining silent.  There is no reason to stay loyal to a party that has existed for all of four months except one: those aforementioned polls.  If the MLAs cannot or will not stand up for what they believe in then it would seem they aren't worth the votes that put them there.  If they wish to stand for the  principles they claim to have, there is no time like the present to remove themselves from the heat of Kenney's socially conservative agenda.  The Lake of Fire 2.0 will not be as kind to the party the second time around.

UCP Leadership: Won and Done?

As Albertans enter the final leg of a leadership race that has seemed to emulate American political theatre ad nauseam, let's take a moment to reflect on the past three months.  Yes, the leadership race officially began on July 22, 2017.  It feels longer because unemployed politician Jason Kenney, Fort McMurray-Conklin MLA Brian Jean and Calgary lawyer Doug Schweitzer have been campaigning for 15, 10 and 4 months respectively.  It probably also feels longer because as of today, the leadership race has been going on for three months and 5 mind-bendingly long days.

L-R Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney, MLA Brian Jean
Credit: LethbridgenewsNOW.com 

On a positive note, it is almost over and we will finally have the privilege of knowing who almost half of the UCP membership will choose to lead the united conservative party.  There's something old, something new and a veritable palette of shades of blue.

Doug Schweitzer made non-UCP members pay attention in the wake of Charlottesville when he called out Rebel Media's Alberta Bureau Chief for stoking white nationalism. It also garnered Schweitzer the title of "leftist" from said Chief.  Schweitzer ran a decent campaign as the "moderate conservative" and has attracted support from a number of former PCs who somehow believe he has a hope of winning the leadership.  While his campaign is almost as factually creative as Kenney's, Schweitzer's message of "new blue" moderate conservatism speaks to a broader general electorate who, after 44 years of electing progressive conservatives, may themselves be moderately conservative.

Brian Jean is the favourite among moderate conservatives from the former Wildrose camp (who are also likely former PCs).  Brian has been a staunch conservative, voting against same-sex marriage while an MP and strangling all effectiveness out of the phrase "will not increase your taxes" as the newly elected Wildrose leader.  He has mellowed somewhat since being elected to serve Albertans in the legislature and now takes a a more libertarian stance of "social issues only exist if we talk about them".  Brian Jean is in the unique position of having the party stalwarts turn on him in favour of Jason Kenney who, ironically, won the leadership of the socially progressive party. And if you haven't seen Kenney's number one fan, Campaign Life Coalition's, updated criticism of Brian Jean's voting record (here), you are missing out on basking in the intended consequence of social conservative back-patting.

And then there is Jason Kenney, self-styled as Alberta's Saviour.  The plucky young liberal from Saskatchewan, who realized he was instead a conservative, bragged about running from a Saskatchewan NDP government two full years before the NDP were elected there.  Kenney spread his doom and gloom clear across the province at the fiscally conservative cost of $1.5 million dollars; that's $250,000 per month or $1,347.71 for each of the 1,113 votes he received to become leader. Kenney has indeed accomplished something spectacular in winning the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta; where once a proud legacy of social progressiveness was an honourable badge of leadership, Kenney's personal brand of social stagnancy now tarnishes the legacy of a once innovative and forward-thinking party that helped Alberta become the economic envy of a nation.

While the votes are still being counted, side bets are being taken on how much of the vote Kenney will take on the first ballot.  In certain circles of people who know people, the numbers are as high as 65%.   There are few who believe the other two candidates have a chance against Kenney; some of whom have probably paid the $20 fee to be in the Palomino Room at the BMO Centre in Calgary on Saturday at 5:00 pm.  While there are few who believe a second ballot will be needed, it's still fun to imagine something interesting could happen.

Calgary Election: Where's the Political Line?

The long weekend brought a number of opinions on the municipal electoral races happening in Calgary.  The Canadian Taxpayer Federation released the responses to their questionnaire on October 3 and as near as I can tell, the responses they agree with are coloured green. Danielle Smith, former leader of the Wildrose Party and current host of QR770's mid-morning show in Calgary released a list of "Pro-taxpayer, conservative candidates as identified by listeners" and "Pro-union, progressive candidates as identified by the Calgary District Labour Council" on October 7.  To be honest, I find
the term "pro-taxpayer" misleading: taxpayer dollars have been wasted by conservatives.  To be fair, progressives have also wasted taxpayer dollars.

Credit:City of Calgary Twitter account
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That week was topped off with a report of an email from a Calgary developer who encouraged his employees to vote for the "conservative" choices.  The article notes that Nenshi is attempting to lessen the urban sprawl due to the increased costs for the city (aka taxpayers) associated with outward development; which is not good for a single-family residential developer.  Like too many complaints I hear about change, many want things to stay the same and seem to be unwilling to flex their innovation muscles.  If Nenshi wins, will this developer fold his business or will he look to become competitive in multi-family developments?  It's not as if he truly doesn't have an option.

What if you are interested in trying to keep provincial or federal politics out of municipal decision-making?  Do you believe provincial politicians are concerned about how often your garbage is picked up or whether there should be increased transit routes or fees?  That's not their job and it's not the concern of provincial political parties either.  Just like your candidate for school trustee would like to "fix math" but has zero opportunity to do that unless they are also an experienced educator and working on curriculum; in Edmonton.  However, the conservative students count slate has received a lot of press.  Should Calgarians pay less taxes or should they be assured their tax dollars are benefiting their communities?  Conservatives have misused tax dollars and so have progressives but do you know who doesn't?  Good people.

Municipal elections offer citizens the one opportunity within our levels of government to vote for the best person; the opportunity to choose a person who will represent your needs at the community level.  How are your taxes spent?  What types of developments do you want in your community?  Can you purchase your first home in the community?  How about your first family home?  What about aging within your home community?  What recreation, transit and community gathering options are available?  These are the concerns addressed by city councilors.

Credit: Sam Hester @calgaryhester

So what are the options if you were hoping to vote for a good representative for your ward who didn't have any provincial/federal party-affiliated endorsements?  The list below outlines candidates who you might want to look closely at if you are not seeking to stack your municipal council seats with people who may be more susceptible to provincial/federal influence over community members.

(Note: I just read a lot and write about politics, the choice is yours. This list is solely my opinion based on the candidate platforms and provincial/federal party-affiliated endorsements. I also ignored platforms claiming one would fight for lower taxes but keep or increase service levels; it's an unrealistic proposal and I was annoyed at having my time wasted reading it.)

Mayor: Andre Chabot, Naheed Nenshi
Ward 1: Coral Bliss Taylor, Cole Christensen
Ward 2: Christopher Maitland, Jennifer Wyness
Ward 3: Connie Hamilton, Ian McAnerin
Ward 4: Blair Berdusco, Srinivas Ganti
Ward 5: George Chalal, Tudor Dinca, Hirde Paul Jassal, Balraj (Raj) Nijjar, Aryan Sadat
Ward 6: Alex Columbos, Esmahan Rasavi, Sanjeev Kad, Grace Nelson
Ward 7: Margot Aftergood, Dean Brawn, Druh Farrell
Ward 8: Carter Thomson, Evan Woolley
Ward 9: Gian-Carlo Carra, Boss Madimba
Ward 10: Ray Jones, Salimah Kassam, Issa Mossa, Michelle Robinson
Ward 11: Robert Dickinson, Janet Eremenko, Linda Johnson, Keith Simmons
Ward 12: Shane Keating, Mackenzie Quigley
Ward 13: Kay Adeniyi, Adam Boechler, Mark Dyrholm
Ward 14: Sorry to hear about your lack of options.

As the Legislature Turns

As of October 4, 2017, there are officially three independent MLAs in the Alberta Legislature; former NDP MLA Karen McPherson became the second MLA in the past few weeks to sit as an independent after Rick Fraser resigned from the UCP caucus on September 21.  Derek Fildebrandt, MLA for Strathmore-Brooks resigned from the UCP caucus in August over an expense scandal but that was simply to take heat off of the party.  Add to this the lone MLAs from the Liberal party, Dr. David Swann, the Alberta Party, Greg Clark, and Richard Starke who was granted permission to remain a PC MLA for Vegreville - Lloydminster, and you have a very different set up in the legislature than was elected in 2015.

Speculation about where the independents will go has been going on since Starke refused to become a UCP MLA and became deeper when Fraser resigned.  With the addition of Karen McPherson, some, like Cory Morgan, are predicting a surge to the Alberta Party.  If Morgan is correct, though, we should see a number of NDP MLAs outside of the provincial capital also taking on independent status in order to give themselves a chance at re-election.

Not to be outdone by allowing media a moment to focus on someone else, Jeff Callaway, UCP leadership contender also resigned and, unsurprisingly, endorsed Kenney.  Callaway sent out an email blaming Brian Jean's staff for attempting to intimidate him.  Yes, Callaway pointed the finger, take your guess of which one, squarely at Brian Jean; if you can't beat 'em, smear 'em.  All of this is meant to drive hundreds or thousands of voters away from Mean Jean and into the welcoming arms of Jason Kenney, who also had his detractors today.

If you happened to miss the reports of a terror attack in Edmonton over the weekend, news is starting to come out about the suspect who was taken into custody that night.  In a unique twist, the driver of the truck was an asylum seeker from the U.S. whose petition was granted under Jason Kenney's watch as Immigration Minister back in 2012.  My expectation would be the connection matters much less to those who don't support Kenney than those who do, which is an unfortunate side effect of fear-mongering to your base.

So for those of you keeping track, while Callaway may have earned some points for Kenney by dragging Jean and his supporters through the mud, his base might be a more put off by the idea that a potential terrorist was allowed in under his term.  To Kenney's credit, or lack thereof, he blamed the Liberals, the NDP and Obama (yes, Obama) for Canada granting asylum to a man who was ordered to be deported from the U.S.  And quietly we lay down wondering what the hell is going to happen in Alberta politics tomorrow.

Protecting Taxpayer Dollars Shouldn't Cost Nenshi the Election

It's not the five CEO's but it is five wealthy gentleman.  Are the Calgary Flames owners negotiating, campaigning for a new mayor of Calgary or are they truly finished with making profit in Alberta?  While Mayor Nenshi is often referred to as "Spendshi" by his political detractors, he was the first to say "no" to tax dollars being used to fund a new arena during a recession in 2016.  Nenshi's popularity has taken a hit over the past couple of years and Calgary's need for an arena seems to have been elevated to an election issue a mere 32 days before the October 16 election.

Private industry has a love-hate relationship with government. Government is responsible for regulations, by-laws, tax collection and spending.  While the former are often considered "unnecessary", "job-killing" and "scaring off investment" the latter, spending, is only considered to be a bad thing if private industry is not somehow benefiting.

Photo credit: Jeff MacIntosh/The Canadian Press

The initial proposal for the new arena, Calgary Next, asked the city (aka: residents and taxpayers) to match the owners' personal investment.  In an investment, if one puts money toward a profit-yielding venture, they often negotiate an ownership agreement or at the very least, a percentage of profits in return for said investment.  For the city and its taxpayers, the Calgary Next proposal was nothing of the sort.

In addition to loaning Calgary Next a half billion ($240 million in a direct loan and $250 million through a city revitalization loan) and giving them the $200 million they initially requested, Calgary taxpayers would also pay to clean up the contaminated soil on the West Village site which the city believed would bring the total cost of an $890 million proposal to $1.8 billion. For this generosity, Calgary Next would build a public-access field house, pay no future taxes and keep all the profits.  The city, aka Calgary taxpayers would not be considered equal partners in this venture; what the Flames owners proposed was/is literally a hand out.

Jason Markusoff, Calgary resident, journalist and Macleans contributor, wrote that it was unlikely a conservative contender for Mayor would have a better chance of winning if they agreed to use taxpayer dollars to fund the arena but that's exactly what private industry in this province is used to. The election of Mayors Nenshi and Iveson was an indication that people were fed up with the status quo in Alberta.  Many people understand their taxes are meant to pay for things that make their lives and their communities better.  Seeing those tax dollars used to benefit a few million or billionaires didn't sit well with the electorates if the 2015 election of the NDP over the ultra-conservative Wildrose is anything to go by.

Taxpayer dollars are meant to be used to benefit taxpayers.  Public art, for all its controversies, is available to all.  Roads, whether you use them for your own vehicle or take public transit, are available to all. A new arena that will house events at a cost is not available to all; it is available only to those who can afford to attend.  Nenshi was right to say no to the "deal" but if the arena becomes an election issue, and if money really does talk, it could cost him his job.

Kenney vs. Jean: Too Soon to Tell

The polls that made headlines this week were interesting to say the least.  The United Conservative Party still shows a healthy lead over everyone else, no matter who wins the leadership, but Brian Jean leads Jason Kenney by a healthy majority according to a Mainstreet poll. When the PC dynasty fell, to the NDP no less, the shock was felt across the country but also stunned politicos outside of the country.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

If you've spent time with the election data from 2015, you know there was an anomaly.  Other than the fact that the NDP formed government, you would notice the Progressive Conservatives still managed to earn a lot of votes; over 50,000 more than the Wildrose's 360,511.  Yet the PC's ended up with 11 seats less than the Wildrose's 21.  This simply showed that their votes were cast over a much wider area that did not amount to winning ridings whereas the Wildrose votes were more centralized and managed to gain seats.

NOTE: the following polls surveyed all Albertans as the organizations do not have access to membership lists.

Jason Kenney as UCP leader

ThinkHQ's online poll showed that support for the NDP is stronger with Jason Kenney as leader. As the Metro's Elizabeth Cameron noted, Jason Kenney looks to have equal support from both urban and rural areas while Brian Jean has much greater support from rural. This analysis is what makes things interesting.  Could Jason Kenney as leader end up garnering support in 2019 in the same way Prentice did in 2015?  We can see that support does not guarantee seats.

At Calgary Pride, I spoke with a Calgary resident in a UCP shirt.  I asked him what he was hoping for in the leadership race.  Unsurprisingly, due to the location of our conversation, he said he was voting for Brian Jean.  This was, I admit, exactly what I was hoping to hear because the real question I had was this: "So what will you do if Kenney wins?" I asked. "Will you hold your nose and vote UCP anyway?" He didn't seem to want to answer but I persisted. "No," he finally told me, "I will be in political purgatory."

Jason Kenney, I truly believe, will inspire similar responses from red tories across the province. His lack of consideration for Alberta's LGBTQ2+ community members reeks of indifference if not outright disdain. Though the LGBTQ2+ community may be small in comparison to the Canadian population (and therefore provincial), the number of allies to the community is growing every year. Prentice felt that support when the PC's proposed ridiculous alternatives to Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman's Bill 202 with the "parental rights" foundation of Bill 10. Kenney, for all his purported political savvy, seems determined to further that stance.

Brian Jean as UCP leader

Brian Jean appears to be much more palatable to the general public than Jason Kenney but his detractors are loud. Former Wildrose president and current UCP leadership hopeful Jeff Callaway claimed Brian Jean was too selfish to become leader.  Obsessive political observers know there is no love lost between Jean and Fildebrandt but not everyone is obsessive.  At a Unite the Right town hall Fildebrandt held in his riding of Strathmore Brooks when he was still "considering" a run for UCP leader, one attendee stood up and asked "If you win the leadership, will Jason Kenney support you? Obviously Brian Jean will but can you count on Kenney?"

I fully expect Kenney would publicly throw support behind Brian Jean to ensure a UCP win if Jean became leader.  I actually believe Jean would do the same for Kenney.  There is a big difference between their supporters though.  Kenney tends to woo the religious right and they religiously follow him.  Jean has support from more moderate types because he himself is much more moderate than Kenney. Jean's support of over 50% of Albertans were he to win the leadership to Kenney's less than 40% is telling.  If Fildebrandt is correct and Jean is "not a leader", it stands to reason that people will not follow him if he asks them to support Kenney.

According to a Mainstreet survey released at the beginning of August, the UCP would win an election held at that time but would be shut out of Edmonton, mirroring the results from the above ThinkHQ poll.  Mainstreet's poll though, showed a decrease in support for a Kenney led UCP.  Of those who polled as "undecided" and "voting NDP" the numbers are 21% and 21% respectively if Brian Jean is leader but 28% and 22% if Kenney leads.

While one cannot accurately predict the outcome of an election two years in advance based on today's sentiments, there is a pattern to keep an eye on. Kenney is a social conservative in a province that has moved on.  Jean is a moderate in comparison to Kenney but if he wins the leadership race, he will be compared to an actual moderate like the Alberta Party's Greg Clark and the still likable, if currently unpopular, Premier Notley.  Whoever becomes UCP leader has a lot of time to ruin their chance to form government; in 2012, it only took three days.

Fundraising, Leadership Races and Jobs

Back in 2015 when the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta launched their leadership race, the entry fee was $50,000.  Last week, two United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, sent out an email requesting donations to raise $75,000 for the leadership entry fee which had yet to be determined.  Friday it was announced that each candidate will only have to come up with $95,000 to run for leader and 21%, or $20,000, is refundable if the candidates operate within the rules.

Jason Kenney raised a reported $1.45 million dollars for his bid to become leader of the Progressive Conservative Association and spent $1.5 million to secure the 1,113 votes which saw him elected as leader. The PC party purportedly had a membership of around 40,000 (that's 2.7%).  A campaign spokesman also claimed an additional $500,000 was raised through a separate entity which would bring the total to just under $2 million dollars.  That number, however, is less than the same spokesman claimed was raised previously. And all during one of the worst recessions Alberta has ever seen. We're getting used to the double-speak, though.

The $300,000 UCP will earn from the four candidates, in addition to the recent release of 7 staff members, should alleviate the caucus budget woes. For all Brian Jean's assurances that "there is no deficit", being $322,000 over budget suggests otherwise. It was an easy mark for Kenney to pounce on.

Yes, it would be hypocritical for Jean to claim he could balance a provincial budget without balancing a caucus budget.  The thing to remember is that as of July 22, 2017, the caucus budget changed. A select few have related the current budgetary issues to the reduction in caucus funds resulting from the party merger.  It is said the budget allotted to Wildrose was reduced by $400,000 as a result; you do the math.

Still, UCP considered asking caucus to use their personal MLA allowances to help reduce the deficit; but that's like raising taxes on citizens to cover spending for gosh sake's. In the end, the UCP found a new revenue stream in the leadership race and cut expenses.  While Jason Kenney would like to blame MLA Brian Jean, it makes as much sense to blame MLA Dave Rodney or MLA Drew Barnes because they aren't leading the UCP either.

Drew Barnes, UCP/Wildrose MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat tweeted "This is more than just caucus deficit.  It is jobs, kid's hockey fees, livelihoods. We can do better". While the UCP promise to reduce government workers (to much fanfare from their supporters) some appear to understand what happens when people lose their jobs. Contrary to popular Wildrose/UCP misconception, individuals working for government are also people who need food, shelter, their job.. and probably aren't cannibals.

Granted, Kenney and friends are trying their best to throw Brian Jean under the bus for having hired people in the first place but this is a different caucus, with a different budget, than what existed before.

One recently fired employee, Cole Kander, detailed his view of the unfairness in a weird "spurned lover"-like post.  Between his fawning over Brian Jean ("a leader I thought walked on water") and his probable genuine sadness at losing his job ("It was everything I wanted, desired and hoped to do with my life."), Kander announced his intention to run for the candidate nomination for the UCP in 2019. Considering he isn't likely to be the most trusted potential employee in political circles after that post, I guess it's a logical step.

What Kander didn't mention is that he was Derek Fildebrandt's legislative assistant.  Walk that back a moment.  Cole Kander, legislative assistant to Fildebrandt, who stepped down from caucus August 15, 2017, was let go.  The UCP, for whom Derek no longer works, but who paid the salary of Kander, let Kander go. Team Kenney may have the money but their game is pretty weak so far.

Alberta's Choice

Alberta may be in line for yet another credit downgrade from its current A+ rating after DBRS reviewed the NDP's fiscal update.  Finance Minister Joe Ceci released a statement on Wednesday accompanying the update and reiterated the government's commitment to ensuring services remain available for Albertans.  Interestingly enough, the UCP caucus is also facing a deficit and is looking to borrow from MLA allowances and/or cut caucus staff.  Presumably the 38 staffers are excited to see which of them will remain employed in the disastrous economic climate their employer assures them exists.

While the NDP are still holding onto hope that oil prices will rebound it's looking less and less likely to happen before 2019 (note: the links are not Alberta specific but global forecasts).  The NDP is in a difficult position because if they raise taxes, they will be hounded by the opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  By maintaining the status quo they will be hounded by opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  There's always option number three: they could cut services and jobs and look like hypocrites to their supporters.  Their only hope was a resource royalty miracle.

But don't think for a second the UCP isn't in the same boat.  They need resource revenue as well because even though we can't pay for the services we currently have, they want to cut taxes further.  They, however, are not afraid to cut services and jobs.  Their active supporters, a large number of whom are 55 and older, living in rural areas with few health services or urban areas without adequate space for placement in seniors' facilities and wait lists for surgeries, are cheering for it, actually.  Everyone knows the old saying "the less you pay, the better quality you receive"... or something like that.

The NDP desperately needed resource revenues to return so they could be in a strong position to maintain government in 2019.  If they won't raise taxes to support the spending or cut the spending, they will go further into debt at what looks to be a higher level of interest if Alberta's credit rating drops again.  The credit rating agencies have said there are only two options to keep the credit rating we have and maintaining the status quo is not one of them.  While the Wildrose/UCP continues to look less like the financial stewards they claimed to be, other parties are being given the opportunity to offer a real choice in 2019.

The Real Choice

Monday started off better than last week with Brian Jean actually going so far as to make a policy proposal.  It's awful but anything that takes attention away from Fildebrandt for a bit is a blessing.   While it's likely we haven't heard the last of the expense scandals, at least there's questionable and inappropriate policy to talk about today.

Jean introduced his policy with a standard phrase designed to keep his supporters scared and angry;

The NDP government is starting us down the wrong path by imposing their ideology and eroding the choices Alberta students have so benefited from (in) the past.  They’ve launched their massive curriculum review with no indication who is leading it or where it’s going.  

The UCP/Wildrose group has had a lot of success with this narrative.  Kenney raised alarm about the curriculum review but wouldn't go so far as to say a UCP review would be transparent.  Two weeks prior to Jean's media scrum on Monday, Kenney also claimed students were being taught "fads".  The two front-runners, let's be honest, will do everything they can to make this about personality.  If they have the same talking points, then you only have to vote for the person you like better... or dislike less.

Malcolm Mayes, Edmonton Journal, June 2016

With all the discussion around the certainty that the current government will impose their ideology on students, the Wildrose/UCP are suggesting they can, and will, do the same.

We would focus on enhancing the curriculum from an Alberta perspective by improving financial, historical and energy literacy.  Alberta is the best province in the best country in the world and our students need to be taught exactly that.  

Would an "Alberta perspective" include the Wildrose/UCP whopper that Alberta makes transfer payments to our eastern provincial neighbours?   This is indeed worrisome because although it certainly is a perspective widely found in this province, it's only loosely based on reality.  Canadian citizens pay federal taxes and the federal government gives money back to provinces based on need.  It's really not a difficult concept unless you're trying to sell a lie.

There was also something Jean said that I somewhat agree with;

We do Alberta’s children no favours by giving out passing grades without them achieving their full potential.  We would end the “No Zero” policy.  If you don’t do the work, you should get a zero.  Students must complete the work and demonstrate a minimum level of achievement to advance to the next grade.  

I agree with teachers that no one should tell them they can or cannot give a certain mark; they are the professionals.  With that being said, the case for a no-zero policy actually makes sense if you consider the reasoning behind its implementation.  With children currently attending Alberta's K-12 system, I am of the opinion that a no-zero policy increases responsibility and collaboration between the child, parent and teacher.  What is easier?  Helping a student complete an assignment or giving them a zero and moving on?  The no-zero policy was brought in to enforce exactly what Jean is saying: "Students must complete the work".

Our plan to strengthen Alberta’s education system would ensure parents remain the primary educator of their children by allowing for the choice in education they want their children to receive. Commitment to diversity and choice in Alberta’s education system will ensure success for students.  

"Choice".  We should not forget that libertarian policies still want the government to pay for your children's education, they just want to ensure someone can make a profit.  Public schools don't make money but a lot of money, taxpayer money, is spent on them.  If the libertarian movement could get their hands on the money "given" to education, they would ensure a few people could profit.  That's the real choice Brian Jean wants to provide and no, Mr. and Ms. "ordinary", "average" Albertan, he's definitely not talking about you.

 

Why Would Kenney Lie?

The events in Charlottesville last weekend seem to have opened up a firestorm raining down on the head of Nazi sympathizing media outlet, the Rebel.  In turn, the heat from said fire has started to make those politicians and electoral hopefuls who support them a little uncomfortable.  On Sunday, United Conservative Party leader candidate Doug Schweitzer was the first UCP hopeful to publicly condemn both the right wing media and its contributors, commentators and guests, and the bandwagon continued filling up all week; if to a lesser extent.

Credit: Rebel Media

Other UCP leadership candidates, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, were less emphatic in their condemnation.  Brian Jean, whose very short-lived appeal to moderates encouraged commentators for the outlet to question his commitment to conservatives, reiterated his support for free speech but claimed he was "concerned with the commentary and editorial direction" of the Rebel.  Having been on the receiving end of a clash with the Rebel before, it seems he is unwilling to say more.

Jason Kenney, claimed he was "repeatedly attacked by Rebel for criticizing them" but little evidence of this can be found.  For 5 straight pages of a custom Google search within the Rebel's site, there is nothing but articles denoting praise for Kenney. On the sixth page, there is finally a commentary with what looks as if it may offer the kind of attack Kenney claims he received.  In May of 2017, Levant produced a video in which he mentioned both Jean and Kenney and the stance they took in response to a chant of "lock (Premier Rachel Notley) up" at the Rebel's Carbon Tax rally in December 2016 saying:

"... provided the leader (of the united conservative party) has the courage of their convictions to undo the damage (caused by NDP policies).  I'm not even fully convinced of that. I see political correctness creeping into both those parties.  I mean, obviously the Progressive Conservatives are still a split personality, lots of red tories there. I know that both Brian Jean and Jason Kenney for example condemned our rally on the steps of the legislature in Alberta in December where nearly 3000 men and women were there to protest the carbon tax; many of them unemployed.  But Kenney and Jean condemned the men for a quick. light-hearted chant to 'lock her up' as if those men really meant to kidnap her and lock her up or something instead of just having a light-hearted moment to (lessen) the pain of their unemployment." May 19, 2017

There was little criticism levied against Kenney and certainly not what one could reasonably consider an "attack".  Even the articles that suggest there might be something negative about Jason Kenney within neither mention him by name nor link to anything other than another commentator's (or more of their own) personal opinions; which, again, do not mention Kenney at all.  So why would he lie?

Kenney was already called out for stating he had not appeared on the Rebel for over a year.  Now it looks as if he's crying wolf about being "repeatedly attacked".  If anything, Kenney has been repeatedly fawned over.  Is he trying to maintain public support from the conservative (but not Nazi sympathizing) voters?  Or is he simply seeking the balance that will allow the Rebel to continue to garner support from Alberta's alt-right?  Kenney can hardly be blamed for what the Rebel chooses to write about (and omit) but one has to wonder why he would lie about his long, comfortable history with Rebel media.

Note: If anyone has a screenshot of Gunn-Reid's "Who told Doug it would be a good idea to pick a fight with me?" tweet that Schweitzer quoted, please pass it on.

Fildebrandt, Past and Present

The United Conservative Party, being less than a month old, is still in its infancy but it has officially been christened by its first bozo eruption.  Derek Fildebrandt, MLA for Strathmore - Brooks, was found to have been renting out his taxpayer funded apartment in Edmonton through AirBnB for personal profit.  Claiming his actions "never cost the taxpayer anything extra", Fildebrandt released a statement claiming his subletting for personal profit was "not against the rules" and has "always been... shared openly with (his) colleagues".  While the latter ensures each and every one of his WRP/UCP mates can be regarded as comfortably complicit in Derek's stewardship of taxpayer dollars, his leave of absence from his role as "co-shadow finance minister" suggests those same colleagues weren't willing to defend him in the face of public disappointment.

Alberta MLAs are eligible to claim up to $23,160 non-taxable dollars each year ($1,930 per month) to cover their accommodation expenses in Edmonton.  Upon his arrival in the Legislature in 2015, Alberta Party leader Greg Clark called for a change in the reimbursement process when he discovered he was unable to easily claim less than $1,930 per month.  In March of 2016, Clark's recommendations requiring MLAs "to claim actual living expenses" rather than a blanket amount were approved by the Member's Services Committee.  This change in accommodation expense rules is what will likely come back to haunt Fildebrandt as Clark has now requested an investigation and review of accommodation expenses claimed by current MLAs.

Fildebrandt staunchly claims he did nothing wrong and he is receiving some public support. Personally profiting from taxpayer funded accommodation "absolutely isn't an issue" said the Strathmore-Brooks Wildrose/UCP constituency association president, Ronda Klemmensen.  Had the shoe been on the other foot, most (if not all) people who don't support Fildebrandt feel strongly that he would have thrown everything he had in his meme arsenal at the offending MLA(s).  Frankly, this double standard, although not new, is confounding.

Had he used the rental income to decrease the cost to Alberta taxpayers, his actions would have been widely applauded.  In fact, it is that type of ingenuity one would have expected of a "fiscal hawk" and "champion of the taxpayers".  Back in 2013, Fildebrandt stated expense policies should require actual receipts in order to hold public servants accountable.  While campaigning for his seat in 2015 he claimed that it was the responsibility of politicians to first get their "own spending under control".  In fact, Derek Fildebrandt the MLA is facing such acute public backlash because of Derek Fildebrant the former Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation.

Whether you support Fildebrandt now or not, if you have heard anything from him over the past 8 years, you have heard him rail against irresponsible spending by government and elected officials.  One gets the impression from Fildebrandt of old that he would be the first person to ensure his own expenses and spending were above board.  While one right wing publication suggested what he did was not against the rules, it would appear they are unfamiliar with the change Greg Clark successfully implemented in 2016.  "Actual expenses" ensure that Fildebrandt's Air BnB profits should have reduced the amount of accommodation expenses claimed by the MLA.

There is no grey area here.  Fildebrandt's apartment was paid for by Alberta taxpayers.  Fildebrandt profited personally from that apartment and still charged Alberta taxpayers the full amount.  Even though he reimbursed taxpayers after he was caught, Fildebrandt the MLA should not be absolved because Fildebrandt the Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation would never have allowed it.

Update: Greg Clark has been combing over Fildebrandt's expenses and discovered more anomalies; claiming expenses in more than one city and claiming both receipts as well as his per diem expenses (ie twice for the same meals).  Clark has once again called for an investigation into all MLA expense claims.

Back to Our Future

As we head into the final leg of what feels like an American campaign season, people have been asking to see platforms before they vote for the leader of the United Conservative Party.  Most of those people likely won't be voting in the UCP leadership race but that doesn't make the question any less important... just less likely to be answered.

An interesting point was brought up today: are businesses likely to make decisions based on a platform without substance like the one Jason Kenney is touting?  I'll admit my initial reaction was to laugh.  Businesses, especially large ones, are not a one-person operation; they have boards and shareholders to answer to.  However, after careful consideration, this may be one of those circumstances where the lack of a platform is going to be an issue.

Photo credit: Pressfortruth.ca

To begin with, the only unknown in the UPC leadership race is Doug Schweitzer and he's actually put together a fairly informative platform for businesses and individuals regarding taxes and regulations.  Both Kenney and Jean, and even Fildebrandt if he actually runs, are known in the political circles of Alberta conservatives. Certainly few have forgotten the Hail Mary from the 5 CEOs a few days before the 2015 election; Alberta businesses and jobs were at stake if voters elected an NDP government.  

Mr. Kenney managed to raise over $500,000 prior to October 1, 2016 from 2,129 donors (which is an interesting number considering he only managed to earn 1,113 votes from the "membership").  The final tally for his expenses for the leadership race was just under $1.5 million which means he raised almost another million during the five and a half months of the actual leadership race.  While many might look at it as a shady deal, his lack of policy and platform speaks to a lot of people because he says he's a conservative and he is pro-free-enterprise.   Never mind the fact that most Albertans and, honestly, all other political parties in Alberta (even the NDP) are as well.

The narrative, though, has been set and is entrenched in political discourse.  The phrase "job killing carbon tax" has been around since 2012, coined by federal conservatives against the NDP.   It worked for Kenney's team then and he has found a very willing audience in Alberta to regurgitate the same talking point.  It doesn't seem to matter to his supporters that a federal carbon tax will be implemented by 2018 if provinces don't already have one.  Add to that narrative the fact that a number of high emission industries in Alberta have been paying a price on carbon since 2007, and you have yet another red herring.  No one needs to be deceived by their political representatives but the onus is on the individual to learn the truth.

People often look for someone to blame when times are tough.  Change is difficult for a lot of people, especially those who expected their careers to take them through the rest of their lives.  The future is not the same as they thought 40 years ago and Alberta has an opportunity to keep up or be left behind.  The UCP may be the political party of new but their plans and ideas are years behind the rest of the world.  The question is: which direction will the voters in this province take us? 

The New Normal

Ralph Klein referred to "severely normal" Albertans.  Ric McIver and the Wildrose MLAs like to call them "ordinary Albertans".  This evening at Derek Fildebrandt's pig roast, Nathan Cooper, interim leader of the United Conservative Party said he'd "had to spend a lot of time in Edmonton lately and (was) happy to be in Strathmore with totally normal people".  Could he have been referring to MLAs at the Alberta Legislature as Derek Fildebrandt suggested?  Anything is possible.

Derek Fildebrandt and Nathan Cooper
Strathmore, August 4, 2017

His comments weren't taken out of context but like anything else, it means different things to different people. Personally, I think he meant it as a joke and it went over as such but after the "sewer rat" incident, is it really in anyone's best interest to give someone the benefit of the doubt?

The Wildrose caucus and their favourite right wing media monster certainly weren't willing to do that.  As the tale is now told, the NDP called "all the (Wildrose) party's supporters 'sewer rats'."  Never mind that it was one MLA and don't even think of trying to rationalize why a government minister would call provincial constituents who elected her and her party 'sewer rats'.  You would be wrong.  The Wildrose knows what she meant and both they and their supporters pushed the narrative as hard as they could.  It's an urban legend now.

I'm not about to run with a false narrative though.  Welcome to a centrist point of view: I'm reasonable.  All of the people who "got" the joke agreed; they are normal.  The problem with this narrative/rhetoric is it suggests someone else isn't and that definition is in the mind of the beholder.

The "us against them" narrative is something I find particularly concerning. Jason Kenney is running with a current theme of "us" against the "elites" in academia (which elites are under fire change but not the story).  They are a small group.  Marginalizing them is easy; people who spent half their lives paying to learn and now get paid to learn - and teach???  Who does that?  Some people have to work for a living.

Truthfully, marginalizing Edmonton is easy as well.  It's a government city and a government city has unions.  Fildebrandt has taken a stance against unions numerous times and while Kenney has as well, he's much more careful about alienating voters.  Because of unions, Edmonton also has the majority of well-paying government jobs.   It's tough to find a well-paying job in rural Alberta.  Even if you own a business, you don't have the consumer base of the cities which also makes it difficult to start a business.

Nevertheless, if it wasn't for all those decent paying jobs and successful businesses around the province, Strathmore wouldn't have a hospital, let alone upgrades to the hospital.  The tax base of ~11,000 people (a great number of whom work in Calgary) can't pay for the five elementary schools, three junior and senior high schools as well as a hospital.  Don't tell residents though - they think their taxes are too high as it is.  If this argument sounds familiar, it is: federal equalization payments perform the same function as urban to rural equalization within provinces.

"Us vs Them" rhetoric is not helpful to anyone even if it makes you feel good for a moment.  We, Albertans, are all in this together.  Will you decide your future, the future of your children, neighbours and friends based on what you don't want?  Rejecting divisive statements should be our first priority as citizens and especially as voters.