UCP Leadership: Won and Done?

As Albertans enter the final leg of a leadership race that has seemed to emulate American political theatre ad nauseam, let's take a moment to reflect on the past three months.  Yes, the leadership race officially began on July 22, 2017.  It feels longer because unemployed politician Jason Kenney, Fort McMurray-Conklin MLA Brian Jean and Calgary lawyer Doug Schweitzer have been campaigning for 15, 10 and 4 months respectively.  It probably also feels longer because as of today, the leadership race has been going on for three months and 5 mind-bendingly long days.

L-R Doug Schweitzer, Jason Kenney, MLA Brian Jean
Credit: LethbridgenewsNOW.com 

On a positive note, it is almost over and we will finally have the privilege of knowing who almost half of the UCP membership will choose to lead the united conservative party.  There's something old, something new and a veritable palette of shades of blue.

Doug Schweitzer made non-UCP members pay attention in the wake of Charlottesville when he called out Rebel Media's Alberta Bureau Chief for stoking white nationalism. It also garnered Schweitzer the title of "leftist" from said Chief.  Schweitzer ran a decent campaign as the "moderate conservative" and has attracted support from a number of former PCs who somehow believe he has a hope of winning the leadership.  While his campaign is almost as factually creative as Kenney's, Schweitzer's message of "new blue" moderate conservatism speaks to a broader general electorate who, after 44 years of electing progressive conservatives, may themselves be moderately conservative.

Brian Jean is the favourite among moderate conservatives from the former Wildrose camp (who are also likely former PCs).  Brian has been a staunch conservative, voting against same-sex marriage while an MP and strangling all effectiveness out of the phrase "will not increase your taxes" as the newly elected Wildrose leader.  He has mellowed somewhat since being elected to serve Albertans in the legislature and now takes a a more libertarian stance of "social issues only exist if we talk about them".  Brian Jean is in the unique position of having the party stalwarts turn on him in favour of Jason Kenney who, ironically, won the leadership of the socially progressive party. And if you haven't seen Kenney's number one fan, Campaign Life Coalition's, updated criticism of Brian Jean's voting record (here), you are missing out on basking in the intended consequence of social conservative back-patting.

And then there is Jason Kenney, self-styled as Alberta's Saviour.  The plucky young liberal from Saskatchewan, who realized he was instead a conservative, bragged about running from a Saskatchewan NDP government two full years before the NDP were elected there.  Kenney spread his doom and gloom clear across the province at the fiscally conservative cost of $1.5 million dollars; that's $250,000 per month or $1,347.71 for each of the 1,113 votes he received to become leader. Kenney has indeed accomplished something spectacular in winning the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta; where once a proud legacy of social progressiveness was an honourable badge of leadership, Kenney's personal brand of social stagnancy now tarnishes the legacy of a once innovative and forward-thinking party that helped Alberta become the economic envy of a nation.

While the votes are still being counted, side bets are being taken on how much of the vote Kenney will take on the first ballot.  In certain circles of people who know people, the numbers are as high as 65%.   There are few who believe the other two candidates have a chance against Kenney; some of whom have probably paid the $20 fee to be in the Palomino Room at the BMO Centre in Calgary on Saturday at 5:00 pm.  While there are few who believe a second ballot will be needed, it's still fun to imagine something interesting could happen.

Calgary Election: Where's the Political Line?

The long weekend brought a number of opinions on the municipal electoral races happening in Calgary.  The Canadian Taxpayer Federation released the responses to their questionnaire on October 3 and as near as I can tell, the responses they agree with are coloured green. Danielle Smith, former leader of the Wildrose Party and current host of QR770's mid-morning show in Calgary released a list of "Pro-taxpayer, conservative candidates as identified by listeners" and "Pro-union, progressive candidates as identified by the Calgary District Labour Council" on October 7.  To be honest, I find
the term "pro-taxpayer" misleading: taxpayer dollars have been wasted by conservatives.  To be fair, progressives have also wasted taxpayer dollars.

Credit:City of Calgary Twitter account
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That week was topped off with a report of an email from a Calgary developer who encouraged his employees to vote for the "conservative" choices.  The article notes that Nenshi is attempting to lessen the urban sprawl due to the increased costs for the city (aka taxpayers) associated with outward development; which is not good for a single-family residential developer.  Like too many complaints I hear about change, many want things to stay the same and seem to be unwilling to flex their innovation muscles.  If Nenshi wins, will this developer fold his business or will he look to become competitive in multi-family developments?  It's not as if he truly doesn't have an option.

What if you are interested in trying to keep provincial or federal politics out of municipal decision-making?  Do you believe provincial politicians are concerned about how often your garbage is picked up or whether there should be increased transit routes or fees?  That's not their job and it's not the concern of provincial political parties either.  Just like your candidate for school trustee would like to "fix math" but has zero opportunity to do that unless they are also an experienced educator and working on curriculum; in Edmonton.  However, the conservative students count slate has received a lot of press.  Should Calgarians pay less taxes or should they be assured their tax dollars are benefiting their communities?  Conservatives have misused tax dollars and so have progressives but do you know who doesn't?  Good people.

Municipal elections offer citizens the one opportunity within our levels of government to vote for the best person; the opportunity to choose a person who will represent your needs at the community level.  How are your taxes spent?  What types of developments do you want in your community?  Can you purchase your first home in the community?  How about your first family home?  What about aging within your home community?  What recreation, transit and community gathering options are available?  These are the concerns addressed by city councilors.

Credit: Sam Hester @calgaryhester

So what are the options if you were hoping to vote for a good representative for your ward who didn't have any provincial/federal party-affiliated endorsements?  The list below outlines candidates who you might want to look closely at if you are not seeking to stack your municipal council seats with people who may be more susceptible to provincial/federal influence over community members.

(Note: I just read a lot and write about politics, the choice is yours. This list is solely my opinion based on the candidate platforms and provincial/federal party-affiliated endorsements. I also ignored platforms claiming one would fight for lower taxes but keep or increase service levels; it's an unrealistic proposal and I was annoyed at having my time wasted reading it.)

Mayor: Andre Chabot, Naheed Nenshi
Ward 1: Coral Bliss Taylor, Cole Christensen
Ward 2: Christopher Maitland, Jennifer Wyness
Ward 3: Connie Hamilton, Ian McAnerin
Ward 4: Blair Berdusco, Srinivas Ganti
Ward 5: George Chalal, Tudor Dinca, Hirde Paul Jassal, Balraj (Raj) Nijjar, Aryan Sadat
Ward 6: Alex Columbos, Esmahan Rasavi, Sanjeev Kad, Grace Nelson
Ward 7: Margot Aftergood, Dean Brawn, Druh Farrell
Ward 8: Carter Thomson, Evan Woolley
Ward 9: Gian-Carlo Carra, Boss Madimba
Ward 10: Ray Jones, Salimah Kassam, Issa Mossa, Michelle Robinson
Ward 11: Robert Dickinson, Janet Eremenko, Linda Johnson, Keith Simmons
Ward 12: Shane Keating, Mackenzie Quigley
Ward 13: Kay Adeniyi, Adam Boechler, Mark Dyrholm
Ward 14: Sorry to hear about your lack of options.

As the Legislature Turns

As of October 4, 2017, there are officially three independent MLAs in the Alberta Legislature; former NDP MLA Karen McPherson became the second MLA in the past few weeks to sit as an independent after Rick Fraser resigned from the UCP caucus on September 21.  Derek Fildebrandt, MLA for Strathmore-Brooks resigned from the UCP caucus in August over an expense scandal but that was simply to take heat off of the party.  Add to this the lone MLAs from the Liberal party, Dr. David Swann, the Alberta Party, Greg Clark, and Richard Starke who was granted permission to remain a PC MLA for Vegreville - Lloydminster, and you have a very different set up in the legislature than was elected in 2015.

Speculation about where the independents will go has been going on since Starke refused to become a UCP MLA and became deeper when Fraser resigned.  With the addition of Karen McPherson, some, like Cory Morgan, are predicting a surge to the Alberta Party.  If Morgan is correct, though, we should see a number of NDP MLAs outside of the provincial capital also taking on independent status in order to give themselves a chance at re-election.

Not to be outdone by allowing media a moment to focus on someone else, Jeff Callaway, UCP leadership contender also resigned and, unsurprisingly, endorsed Kenney.  Callaway sent out an email blaming Brian Jean's staff for attempting to intimidate him.  Yes, Callaway pointed the finger, take your guess of which one, squarely at Brian Jean; if you can't beat 'em, smear 'em.  All of this is meant to drive hundreds or thousands of voters away from Mean Jean and into the welcoming arms of Jason Kenney, who also had his detractors today.

If you happened to miss the reports of a terror attack in Edmonton over the weekend, news is starting to come out about the suspect who was taken into custody that night.  In a unique twist, the driver of the truck was an asylum seeker from the U.S. whose petition was granted under Jason Kenney's watch as Immigration Minister back in 2012.  My expectation would be the connection matters much less to those who don't support Kenney than those who do, which is an unfortunate side effect of fear-mongering to your base.

So for those of you keeping track, while Callaway may have earned some points for Kenney by dragging Jean and his supporters through the mud, his base might be a more put off by the idea that a potential terrorist was allowed in under his term.  To Kenney's credit, or lack thereof, he blamed the Liberals, the NDP and Obama (yes, Obama) for Canada granting asylum to a man who was ordered to be deported from the U.S.  And quietly we lay down wondering what the hell is going to happen in Alberta politics tomorrow.

Protecting Taxpayer Dollars Shouldn't Cost Nenshi the Election

It's not the five CEO's but it is five wealthy gentleman.  Are the Calgary Flames owners negotiating, campaigning for a new mayor of Calgary or are they truly finished with making profit in Alberta?  While Mayor Nenshi is often referred to as "Spendshi" by his political detractors, he was the first to say "no" to tax dollars being used to fund a new arena during a recession in 2016.  Nenshi's popularity has taken a hit over the past couple of years and Calgary's need for an arena seems to have been elevated to an election issue a mere 32 days before the October 16 election.

Private industry has a love-hate relationship with government. Government is responsible for regulations, by-laws, tax collection and spending.  While the former are often considered "unnecessary", "job-killing" and "scaring off investment" the latter, spending, is only considered to be a bad thing if private industry is not somehow benefiting.

Photo credit: Jeff MacIntosh/The Canadian Press

The initial proposal for the new arena, Calgary Next, asked the city (aka: residents and taxpayers) to match the owners' personal investment.  In an investment, if one puts money toward a profit-yielding venture, they often negotiate an ownership agreement or at the very least, a percentage of profits in return for said investment.  For the city and its taxpayers, the Calgary Next proposal was nothing of the sort.

In addition to loaning Calgary Next a half billion ($240 million in a direct loan and $250 million through a city revitalization loan) and giving them the $200 million they initially requested, Calgary taxpayers would also pay to clean up the contaminated soil on the West Village site which the city believed would bring the total cost of an $890 million proposal to $1.8 billion. For this generosity, Calgary Next would build a public-access field house, pay no future taxes and keep all the profits.  The city, aka Calgary taxpayers would not be considered equal partners in this venture; what the Flames owners proposed was/is literally a hand out.

Jason Markusoff, Calgary resident, journalist and Macleans contributor, wrote that it was unlikely a conservative contender for Mayor would have a better chance of winning if they agreed to use taxpayer dollars to fund the arena but that's exactly what private industry in this province is used to. The election of Mayors Nenshi and Iveson was an indication that people were fed up with the status quo in Alberta.  Many people understand their taxes are meant to pay for things that make their lives and their communities better.  Seeing those tax dollars used to benefit a few million or billionaires didn't sit well with the electorates if the 2015 election of the NDP over the ultra-conservative Wildrose is anything to go by.

Taxpayer dollars are meant to be used to benefit taxpayers.  Public art, for all its controversies, is available to all.  Roads, whether you use them for your own vehicle or take public transit, are available to all. A new arena that will house events at a cost is not available to all; it is available only to those who can afford to attend.  Nenshi was right to say no to the "deal" but if the arena becomes an election issue, and if money really does talk, it could cost him his job.

Kenney vs. Jean: Too Soon to Tell

The polls that made headlines this week were interesting to say the least.  The United Conservative Party still shows a healthy lead over everyone else, no matter who wins the leadership, but Brian Jean leads Jason Kenney by a healthy majority according to a Mainstreet poll. When the PC dynasty fell, to the NDP no less, the shock was felt across the country but also stunned politicos outside of the country.

Photo Credit: Terry Reith/CBC

If you've spent time with the election data from 2015, you know there was an anomaly.  Other than the fact that the NDP formed government, you would notice the Progressive Conservatives still managed to earn a lot of votes; over 50,000 more than the Wildrose's 360,511.  Yet the PC's ended up with 11 seats less than the Wildrose's 21.  This simply showed that their votes were cast over a much wider area that did not amount to winning ridings whereas the Wildrose votes were more centralized and managed to gain seats.

NOTE: the following polls surveyed all Albertans as the organizations do not have access to membership lists.

Jason Kenney as UCP leader

ThinkHQ's online poll showed that support for the NDP is stronger with Jason Kenney as leader. As the Metro's Elizabeth Cameron noted, Jason Kenney looks to have equal support from both urban and rural areas while Brian Jean has much greater support from rural. This analysis is what makes things interesting.  Could Jason Kenney as leader end up garnering support in 2019 in the same way Prentice did in 2015?  We can see that support does not guarantee seats.

At Calgary Pride, I spoke with a Calgary resident in a UCP shirt.  I asked him what he was hoping for in the leadership race.  Unsurprisingly, due to the location of our conversation, he said he was voting for Brian Jean.  This was, I admit, exactly what I was hoping to hear because the real question I had was this: "So what will you do if Kenney wins?" I asked. "Will you hold your nose and vote UCP anyway?" He didn't seem to want to answer but I persisted. "No," he finally told me, "I will be in political purgatory."

Jason Kenney, I truly believe, will inspire similar responses from red tories across the province. His lack of consideration for Alberta's LGBTQ2+ community members reeks of indifference if not outright disdain. Though the LGBTQ2+ community may be small in comparison to the Canadian population (and therefore provincial), the number of allies to the community is growing every year. Prentice felt that support when the PC's proposed ridiculous alternatives to Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman's Bill 202 with the "parental rights" foundation of Bill 10. Kenney, for all his purported political savvy, seems determined to further that stance.

Brian Jean as UCP leader

Brian Jean appears to be much more palatable to the general public than Jason Kenney but his detractors are loud. Former Wildrose president and current UCP leadership hopeful Jeff Callaway claimed Brian Jean was too selfish to become leader.  Obsessive political observers know there is no love lost between Jean and Fildebrandt but not everyone is obsessive.  At a Unite the Right town hall Fildebrandt held in his riding of Strathmore Brooks when he was still "considering" a run for UCP leader, one attendee stood up and asked "If you win the leadership, will Jason Kenney support you? Obviously Brian Jean will but can you count on Kenney?"

I fully expect Kenney would publicly throw support behind Brian Jean to ensure a UCP win if Jean became leader.  I actually believe Jean would do the same for Kenney.  There is a big difference between their supporters though.  Kenney tends to woo the religious right and they religiously follow him.  Jean has support from more moderate types because he himself is much more moderate than Kenney. Jean's support of over 50% of Albertans were he to win the leadership to Kenney's less than 40% is telling.  If Fildebrandt is correct and Jean is "not a leader", it stands to reason that people will not follow him if he asks them to support Kenney.

According to a Mainstreet survey released at the beginning of August, the UCP would win an election held at that time but would be shut out of Edmonton, mirroring the results from the above ThinkHQ poll.  Mainstreet's poll though, showed a decrease in support for a Kenney led UCP.  Of those who polled as "undecided" and "voting NDP" the numbers are 21% and 21% respectively if Brian Jean is leader but 28% and 22% if Kenney leads.

While one cannot accurately predict the outcome of an election two years in advance based on today's sentiments, there is a pattern to keep an eye on. Kenney is a social conservative in a province that has moved on.  Jean is a moderate in comparison to Kenney but if he wins the leadership race, he will be compared to an actual moderate like the Alberta Party's Greg Clark and the still likable, if currently unpopular, Premier Notley.  Whoever becomes UCP leader has a lot of time to ruin their chance to form government; in 2012, it only took three days.

Fundraising, Leadership Races and Jobs

Back in 2015 when the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta launched their leadership race, the entry fee was $50,000.  Last week, two United Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, Brian Jean and Jason Kenney, sent out an email requesting donations to raise $75,000 for the leadership entry fee which had yet to be determined.  Friday it was announced that each candidate will only have to come up with $95,000 to run for leader and 21%, or $20,000, is refundable if the candidates operate within the rules.

Jason Kenney raised a reported $1.45 million dollars for his bid to become leader of the Progressive Conservative Association and spent $1.5 million to secure the 1,113 votes which saw him elected as leader. The PC party purportedly had a membership of around 40,000 (that's 2.7%).  A campaign spokesman also claimed an additional $500,000 was raised through a separate entity which would bring the total to just under $2 million dollars.  That number, however, is less than the same spokesman claimed was raised previously. And all during one of the worst recessions Alberta has ever seen. We're getting used to the double-speak, though.

The $300,000 UCP will earn from the four candidates, in addition to the recent release of 7 staff members, should alleviate the caucus budget woes. For all Brian Jean's assurances that "there is no deficit", being $322,000 over budget suggests otherwise. It was an easy mark for Kenney to pounce on.

Yes, it would be hypocritical for Jean to claim he could balance a provincial budget without balancing a caucus budget.  The thing to remember is that as of July 22, 2017, the caucus budget changed. A select few have related the current budgetary issues to the reduction in caucus funds resulting from the party merger.  It is said the budget allotted to Wildrose was reduced by $400,000 as a result; you do the math.

Still, UCP considered asking caucus to use their personal MLA allowances to help reduce the deficit; but that's like raising taxes on citizens to cover spending for gosh sake's. In the end, the UCP found a new revenue stream in the leadership race and cut expenses.  While Jason Kenney would like to blame MLA Brian Jean, it makes as much sense to blame MLA Dave Rodney or MLA Drew Barnes because they aren't leading the UCP either.

Drew Barnes, UCP/Wildrose MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat tweeted "This is more than just caucus deficit.  It is jobs, kid's hockey fees, livelihoods. We can do better". While the UCP promise to reduce government workers (to much fanfare from their supporters) some appear to understand what happens when people lose their jobs. Contrary to popular Wildrose/UCP misconception, individuals working for government are also people who need food, shelter, their job.. and probably aren't cannibals.

Granted, Kenney and friends are trying their best to throw Brian Jean under the bus for having hired people in the first place but this is a different caucus, with a different budget, than what existed before.

One recently fired employee, Cole Kander, detailed his view of the unfairness in a weird "spurned lover"-like post.  Between his fawning over Brian Jean ("a leader I thought walked on water") and his probable genuine sadness at losing his job ("It was everything I wanted, desired and hoped to do with my life."), Kander announced his intention to run for the candidate nomination for the UCP in 2019. Considering he isn't likely to be the most trusted potential employee in political circles after that post, I guess it's a logical step.

What Kander didn't mention is that he was Derek Fildebrandt's legislative assistant.  Walk that back a moment.  Cole Kander, legislative assistant to Fildebrandt, who stepped down from caucus August 15, 2017, was let go.  The UCP, for whom Derek no longer works, but who paid the salary of Kander, let Kander go. Team Kenney may have the money but their game is pretty weak so far.

Alberta's Choice

Alberta may be in line for yet another credit downgrade from its current A+ rating after DBRS reviewed the NDP's fiscal update.  Finance Minister Joe Ceci released a statement on Wednesday accompanying the update and reiterated the government's commitment to ensuring services remain available for Albertans.  Interestingly enough, the UCP caucus is also facing a deficit and is looking to borrow from MLA allowances and/or cut caucus staff.  Presumably the 38 staffers are excited to see which of them will remain employed in the disastrous economic climate their employer assures them exists.

While the NDP are still holding onto hope that oil prices will rebound it's looking less and less likely to happen before 2019 (note: the links are not Alberta specific but global forecasts).  The NDP is in a difficult position because if they raise taxes, they will be hounded by the opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  By maintaining the status quo they will be hounded by opposition and the public for not cutting jobs and services.  There's always option number three: they could cut services and jobs and look like hypocrites to their supporters.  Their only hope was a resource royalty miracle.

But don't think for a second the UCP isn't in the same boat.  They need resource revenue as well because even though we can't pay for the services we currently have, they want to cut taxes further.  They, however, are not afraid to cut services and jobs.  Their active supporters, a large number of whom are 55 and older, living in rural areas with few health services or urban areas without adequate space for placement in seniors' facilities and wait lists for surgeries, are cheering for it, actually.  Everyone knows the old saying "the less you pay, the better quality you receive"... or something like that.

The NDP desperately needed resource revenues to return so they could be in a strong position to maintain government in 2019.  If they won't raise taxes to support the spending or cut the spending, they will go further into debt at what looks to be a higher level of interest if Alberta's credit rating drops again.  The credit rating agencies have said there are only two options to keep the credit rating we have and maintaining the status quo is not one of them.  While the Wildrose/UCP continues to look less like the financial stewards they claimed to be, other parties are being given the opportunity to offer a real choice in 2019.